Right now, it seems like nobody. But we know that’s not true.
Despite the fact that the Patriots have won seven straight games, and since Week 5 have won four games against division leaders (including their last three straight), they could easily find themselves on the losing end this weekend as they travel to Lambeau Field to face the electrifying Green Bay Packers. And if we’re being honest, nobody would hold that L against them because Aaron Rodgers is dripping lighter fluid from his right arm.
Nevertheless the Patriots — HHSR’s preseason pick to win the Super Bowl — are currently sitting atop everybody’s power rankings (ya know, if you’re into that type of thing) and appear to have all the tools necessary to win their fourth Super Bowl in the Tom Brady/Bill Belichick era.
Of course, there are no sure things in the National Football League— the Patriots know this better than anybody. As dominant as they’ve been over the last 15 years, the Pats haven’t actually won the Super Bowl in a decade. Given their pinpoint precision, professionalism and slight air of superiority, it takes a certain type of squad to knock off this perennial power come January. But what type of characteristics does a team need to beat the Patriots in the playoffs? And which current teams possess those characteristics?
We looked back at some of New England’s past playoff failures in the Brady/Belichick era and tried to connect those dots.
January 14, 2006: Denver Broncos Defeat New England Patriots 27-13
The Patriots were up against it facing a 13-3 Denver team in the road in this Divisional Round playoff game. The Jake Plummer-led Broncos won the time of possession battle and their third ranked defense used five New England turnovers to hand the Patriots their first playoff loss of the Brady/Belichick era (11 games into it).
The most memorable of the five turnovers was critical second half interception thrown by Tom Brady to future Hall of Famer Champ Bailey. What was far more memorable than the Bailey pick was the Herculian effort by Ben Watson after the turnover.
Sidebar: All these years later, are we sure that wasn’t a touchback?
January 20, 2013: Baltimore Ravens Defeat New England Patriots 33-14
A 24-0 first quarter buried the Patriots before the game even got started. BMore forced three Brady interceptions (four NE turnovers overall) and controlled the ball far more effectively. The Ravens had done the seemingly unthinkable— they won a playoff game in New England. Perhaps more unthinkable was Joe Flacco winning this game handily while completing only 4-10 passes.
February 3, 2008 and February 5, 2012: New York Giants Defeat New England Patriots 17-14 and 21-17
Super Bowls XLII and XLVI followed similar scripts. The Giants front four got consistent pressure on Tom Brady in both games resulting in five sacks in 2008, and two sacks & eight hits on Brady in 2012. The Giants won the time of possession in both contests, while they tied the turnover battle in 2008 and won it in 2012. New York also got out to early leads in both games, and though the Pats held the lead inside the final minute of each game, the defense could not hold. The G-Men rallied to win on the strength of two of the most memorable Super Bowl comebacks of all-time.
Sidebar: “…And though the Pats held the lead inside the final minute of each game, the defense could not hold.” This sentence fragment is the exact reason why the Spy Gate argument is a ridiculous reason to knock the Patriots. Both of these near Super Bowl misses came post-Spy Gate.
January 16, 2011: New York Jets Defeat New England Patriots 28-21
If New England manages to defeat the Packers this Sunday, a 14-2 season record is absolutely in play. The last time the Pats went 14-2 was 2010, the year Tom Brady coasted to the first ever unanimous MVP award in NFL history. They would play the rival Jets in the Divisional playoffs after having killed New York 45-3 in Foxborough just six weeks earlier.
Tough-talking Rex Ryan flummoxed the Patriots with a zone defense that deviated from his traditional blitz heavy, man-to-man approach, and still managed to sack Brady five times and knock him down seven times. New York also won the turnover battle 2-1 in the victory that sent the NFL’s best regular season team home after one playoff game. Oh, and a young QB named Mark Sanchez got NY out to a 14-3 halftime lead after throwing two touchdowns in the second quarter.
January 20, 2013: Baltimore Ravens Defeat New England Patriots 28-13
After barely losing the AFC Championship Game to the Patriots in New England one year prior, the Ravens returned to the scene of the crime with a renewed swag. Baltimore again controlled the clock, won the turnover battle (3-0), and most importantly, they knocked the shit out of the Patriots.
It’s pretty obvious what these games all have in common.
By and large, each of the Patriot opponents were the more physical teams. They got after Brady, which resulted in more forced turnovers. They also jumped out to early leads in the majority of these games played keep away from the Patriot offense. True enough, these are all statistics that would typically be found in the winning team’s favor of any box score and aren’t exactly specific to the Pats. Still, Belichick’s reliance on his carefully crafted pregame strategies and New England’s trademark precision are such that these glitches are particularly damaging to their brand of winning. Generally, these are the types of teams that give the Patriots fits in the playoffs.
Sidebar: It also doesn’t hurt the opponent’s cause that only in his rookie season of 2010 has Rob Gronkowski finished the season completely healthy (which is a huge deal).
There were two notable games that weren’t referenced above: both of Brady and Belichick’s playoff loses to Peyton Manning. Not to discredit the quality of those wins for Peyton, but those games and the circumstances surrounding them were far too strange to factor into this study (the word “study” being used as loosely as humanly possible). In the aberrations to end all aberrations, three offensive lineman scored touchdowns in the 2007 AFC Championship game, while the 2014 AFC Championship featured a Patriots team that was so depleted by injury, it cannot be justly compared to the other games.
One other key characteristic that doesn’t show up in the box score was a common thread between each of these Pats playoff loses: the Jets, Giants, Broncos and Ravens all possessed insane levels of confidence. Rex Ryan, Michael Strahan, Ray Lewis, T Sizzle— these are the types of vocal and emotional leaders that fueled the belief that they would out-hit and out-execute the Patriots.
Knowing all of this, who in today’s NFL contain enough of these characteristics to be added to the list of teams to knock off the Patriots in the 2015 playoffs?
The following is a group of current AFC playoff contenders that either don’t meet or are extremely deficient in the criteria referenced above: Cincinnati Bengals, Pittsburgh Steelers, San Diego Chargers, Cleveland Browns, Denver Broncos.
That’s right, the Denver Broncos. You might not believe it, but Denver ranks 11th in sacks, 13th in first quarter scoring and time of possession and 26th in takeaways. That’s simply not good enough. Add to that their recent rash of injuries, the fact that Peyton would most likely have to win a playoff game in Foxborough and how New England took Denver apart in Week 9 it becomes really hard to like their chances.
The Indianapolis Colts are in good position on paper, ranking especially high in TOP and first quarter scoring. But it’s difficult to envision them winning in New England after Andrew Luck’s first three games against Belichick. As talented as Indy is, they don’t appear to have the swagger needed to slay Goliath.
We’ve whittled the list down to four potential playoff teams that seem to have the makeup of a Patriot spoiler: the Miami Dolphins, Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills.
Having won seven of nine games, the Kansas City Chiefs are starting to creep up on the AFC contenders.
Surprised? Don’t be. Say what you will about Kyle Orton (or Ryan Tannehill, Joe Flacco and Alex Smith for that matter), but if Jake Plummer, Mark Sanchez and Eli Manning have taught us anything, it’s that you don’t need a dynamic quarterback or a sophisticated passing attack to beat New England in January. Not to mention Flacco has already pulled this off twice before.
Even as playoff neophytes, the Bills and Dolphins have the luxury of playing New England twice per year, therefore they shouldn’t fear them (the Bills also have a certain familiarity with playing in cold weather). Belichick’s boys struggled with protection early in 2014, and Bills and Phins rank first and tied for fourth in the league in sacks respectively. They’re also each top 10 in the NFL in takeaways.
We know the Chiefs and Ravens would walk into any potential matchup against the Patriots with supreme confidence. Baltimore is middle-of-the-road in TOP and takeaways, but they rank high in first quarter scoring and sacks, and could maintain a mental edge over the Pats due to their recent history. Speaking of history, who could forget New England’s Monday Night meltdown in Kansas City? The Chiefs showed off their dominant pass rush and an ability to control clock in the 41-14 ass-kicking they put on the Pats in September, which was as competitive as a pregame walk-through.
The good news for New England is more than likely only two of these four teams will even make the playoffs. So there’s a chance they might not have to face any of them, let alone more than one. They’d also only have to face one NFC team; under this formula the Seattle Seahawks, Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers would form the biggest threat to the Pats on Super Sunday.
A physical defense that can create turnovers, a ball-controlled offense that has the ability to play with a lead and a supremely confident group of players and coaches— these are the prerequisites for beating the Patriots in the playoffs, specifically in Foxborough. Perhaps the biggest key for New England winning their fourth Lombardi Trophy is to avoid the Chiefs, Dolphins, Ravens and Seahawks come winter. Those teams have what it takes.