Take a second and think of all the playoff basketball proverbs you can. There’s a lot of them…
“Old teams win in the playoffs.”
“The game slows down in the playoffs.”
“It’s not about X’s & O’s, it’s about Jimmy’s & Joe’s.”
“Big players make big plays in big games.”
“The best player on the best team usually wins.”
“In a 7 game series, the better team usually wins.”
“Defense wins championships.”
You’ve heard em all before. Many times. My least favorite (not the first time I’ve said this) is, “The team that wins Game X of a series wins the series X% of the time.” Playoff series are only the best of seven, therefore a team only needs to win four. Therefore, the team that wins any game will have a significantly higher chance to win because anytime you win a game, you’ve won 14% of all the games. It’s arguably the most meaningless stat in sports, but you hear about it every spring.
One of my personal favorite proverbs however, is “the playoffs are all about matchups.”
Overused? Sure. Erroneous? Not entirely. There have been instances when a bad matchup in the first round of the NBA playoffs significantly altered the course of the postseason. Obviously, the classic example of this is the 2007 series between Dallas and Golden State, when the eighth seeded Warriors knocked off a 67-win Mavericks team. While the Dubs didn’t make it past round two, that series was historically significant in three specific ways.
First, it was probably the most significant coaching moment in Don Nelson’s career— the most overrated coach in NBA history. Secondly, it was a watershed victory for small ball over traditional big man basketball. Up until then, teams coached by the likes of Nelson and Phoenix’s Mike D’Antoni that emphasized a quick tempo, quick shooting, three-pointers and little defense were great for selling tickets and making Sportscenter, but had never before been taken seriously in the postseason. But the Warriors knocking off the Mavs, who were coming off one of the most successful regular seasons in history, indicated that a paradigm shift may be on the horizon.
That shift that was once on the horizon slowly grew into a trend, then an accepted form of NBA basketball and has now evolved into the 2014-15 Golden State Warriors, a team that has managed to balance much of Nelson’s offensive philosophy with being the league’s most efficient defensive team (a new wrinkle, yes). The end result was the NBA’s best team this season by far, boasting 67 wins (ironic, right) buoyed by a staggering 39-2 record at home, which brings us to the final point.
That run by the ’07 Warriors was the origin of modern day “Dubs Nation”. The impetus behind that 39-2 record is a crowd which first earned its reputation as the NBA’s most rambunctious during that Mavs series in 2007 and helped craft an identity, much like The Beastquake did for the Seattle Seahawks.
And here we are, the first round of the 2015 playoffs. The Warriors are the favorites to emerge from the Western Conference, but even Golden State has a team it would rather not face. Who are they? And what about the other contenders that reached the NBA’s second season?
Here’s HHSR’s picks for the first round, along with the team each contender “DON’T WANNA SEE” in these playoffs. So we’re clear, if a team “don’t want to see” another team, it doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll catch an L in that series. It just means they might have to work a lot harder to get where they want to go, much like when we said the Patriots didn’t want to see the Ravens back in January. Or it could mean they’ll catch an L in that series. It’s the playoffs, right? God speed, soldiers.
Sidebar: Prior to the start of the season, HHSR correctly predicted six of eight playoff teams in the East and seven of eight teams in the West. And if not for injuries to Chris Bosh and Kevin Durant (or Anthony Davis’ buzzer-beater in early February), HHSR likely would’ve gone 15 of 16 overall. And although I did say they would struggle to shoot (29th in FG% and 30th in 3PT% confirms this), when it comes to the Charlotte Hornets pick…I’m sorry.
Eastern Conference
Kyle Korver’s hot shooting can give Atlanta as strong of a homecourt advantage as anyone.
(1) Atlanta Hawks vs (8) Brooklyn Nets
We’ve been trumpeting the Atlanta Hawks all season on the HHSR twitter account, but now the sharks are in the water. Paul Millsap is banged up, but good to go, while Thabo Sefolosha went from ATL’s best perimeter defender to a statistic overnight after the NYPD seemingly used unnecessary and excessive force in his arrest outside a nightclub last week. But the hoop gods were smiling upon the Hawks when they drew the Brooklyn Nets in round one.
To be honest, the Pacers might have been the team the Hawks least would’ve wanted to see, especially in the first round. After struggling under immense pressure as a top seed against ATL last year, the Hawks would psychologically rather not face Indy again, who would be relishing the opportunity to return the favor and apply pressure as an eight seed. But the Nets snuck in in their black & white uni’s like The Hamburglar, and now face a team that dropped them four times this season, and just two weeks ago by a score of 131-99.
Unless Paul Pierce unknowingly lit a fire under Deron Williams’ ass, the Hawks should be able to advance rather easily. The biggest fear with this team is that they may have peaked too soon. Going undefeated in January is cool, until you realize the games matter way more in May.
Hawks in five.
The Hawks don’t want to see…Toronto Raptors. Quiet as kept, the Raps beat the Hawks in three of four meetings this year, including a 25-point fade the last time they met in February, Needless to say you won’t see Jeff Teague running through “The 6” with his woes anytime soon.
(4) Toronto Raptors vs (5) Washington Wizards
All three meetings between these teams this season were won by Toronto, however Bradley Beal sat out two of them. He scored 26 points in an OT loss in the one game he played. So where does that leave us? It leaves us with what should be a tightly contested series.
Each of these teams were poised to “make the jump” in the East after both Indiana AND Miami fell off this year (we all knew Cleveland would occupy one of those top spots). Turns out “carpe diem” is a phrase that meant more to Atlanta— these two squads are now forced to duke it out for the East’s intercontinental title. In other words, the young up & comer that realistically has no shot at making a Finals run right now.
We warned you on The Preseason Podcast of the Year, in the preseason actually, about Randy Wittman getting Randy Wittman all over this nice young Washington team. Yeah, that happened. And Brad Beal has been anything but real deal of late, playing highly inconsistent ball since returning from injury. The same can be said for Kyle Lowry though, but he and DeMar DeRozan (who has averaged 24 ppg the last two months) are capable of outplaying John Wall and Beal. Throw in homecourt advantage and…
Raptors in seven.
The craziest part of all is that this is arguably the best Washington team in nearly 40 years! This franchise hasn’t won at least 46 games in a season since 1979! That literally predates the existence of Rapper’s Delight!
The Raptors don’t want to see the…Chicago Bulls. The Bulls spanked the Raptors 4-0 this season with an average margin of victory of over 11 points per game. Chicago is just too physical for this team and will literally eat them alive on the glass.
The Wizards don’t want to see the…Cleveland Cavaliers. If the Wiz are able to slide by, the team they really want no parts of is the Casv. After losing handily to them in November, Cleveland crushed the hapless Wizards in the next two meetings, then Cleveland’s scrubs beat Washington’s scrubs in a scrub-off in the last game of the season! Plus, there’s that “LeBron” thing— pretty sure there’s some history there.
(3) Chicago Bulls vs (6) Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks were a fun story. They battled back from Jabari Parker’s injury and Larry Sanders’ lunacy to climb all the way to the sixth seed. Giannis Antetokounmpo does things we’ve never really seen before on a court. Jason Kidd has atoned for last year’s dumpster fire of a Nets season and has earned respect around the league as a solid young coach.
But it ends here.
The Bulls are obviously too big, too battle-tested and too well-coached to lose this battle of I-94. The real question here is how well will Derrick Rose look and will he be able to sustain any consistent play in preparation for what will likely be a round two matchup against the Cavs, which if you think about it, could be the last series we see of this Bulls team as we know it. If Rose gets hurt again, what do you do with him? What do you do with Noah and his history of nagging injuries, and Gasol, who’s not getting any younger? What if Thibs leaves??
Bulls in four.
The Bulls don’t want to see the…Washington Wizards. The Wiz always plays Chicago tough. They split four games this year and Washington would have confidence in this hypothetical matchup after rather eaisly defeating the Bulls in the playoffs last season.
(2) Cleveland Cavaliers vs (7) Boston Celtics
I could copy/paste much of the Chicago/Milwaukee breakdown right into this section. Boston, nice story, great young coach, exceeded expectations yadda, yadda, yadda. They have no chance at beating the Cavaliers. The C’s have ZERO rim protection (unless you want to call Tyler Zeller and Kelly Olynyk rim pro…never mind) and the Cavs have Kyrie and LeBron. I could keep going, but I won’t.
Cavs in four.
The Cavs don’t want to see the…Atlanta Hawks. You just knew I was going to say the Bulls, didn’t you? But alas, the Hawks are a tougher matchup for the Wine & Gold. People make a big deal about the Bulls “not being scared of LeBron and the Cavs”. Guess what? The Cavs aren’t scared of the Bulls either. Why should they be? They beat Chicago three times this season, they’d have homecourt and how many times have we seen LeBron kick the crap out of Rose and or Noah in the playoffs? LeBron has bested those dudes so many times, people have actually forgotten it somehow.
The fact is, the Bulls are only an average offensive team at best. They don’t have the firepower to take advantage of Cleveland’s biggest deficiency, which is their defense. The Hawks do. The Hawks move the ball and bodies better than anyone in the East. ATL’s should-be Coach of the Year Mike Budenholzer was a Gregg Popovich apprentice for years in San Antonio, and who’s had more success against LeBron in the playoffs than the Spurs?
Western Conference
(1) Golden State Warriors vs (8) New Orleans Pelicans
This is where the fun really starts. Ironically, the West reminds you of the movie The Warriors. All these distinctly unique gangs fighting one another and using anything they can get their hands on as a weapon— it’s kill or be killed, and all you’re trying to do is get home. The real life Warriors are ready to embark on a similar journey (metaphorically anyway). But it’s going to be a little bit more difficult than they might even anticipate.
Golden State has been called one of the best regular season teams of all-time, rightfully so. But Golden State faced little adversity this year. Everything came easy to them. They didn’t have a ton of injuries, or a ton of scrutiny, or a stretch where they didn’t play well. Steve Kerr walked in off the street and won almost seventy games in his first season. These things aren’t supposed to happen.
The Warriors will manhandle a decent young New Orleans team that is just happy to be there (Anthony Davis will be great, but he alone can’t win any games for the Pelicans), but the real story will be how the Warriors handle being the top seed. All the pressure is now on them and it’s a lot easier to make shots in the paint under pressure than it is three-pointers.
Warriors in four.
The Warriors don’t want to see the…San Antonio Spurs. There’s all the obvious reasons: the Spurs aren’t new at playing on the big stage, the pupil vs teacher angle between Kerr & Pop, San Antonino being the only team smart enough to force Draymond Green into taking as many three’s as possible and the Spurs can adapt to winning any style of basketball. Then you must consider the Spurs beating a team that lost only 13 games all season twice in three meetings (once at The Oracle), and Kawhi Leonard having the capacity to completely take Klay Thompson out of a series. The Dubs are lucky San Antonio is in the other half of the bracket.
(4) Portland Trail Blazers vs (5) Memphis Grizzlies
This is a tough series figure out. Memphis seemed to really turn the corner and be ready to make a Finals run this year, then they just sort of stalled out. Now Tony Allen and Mike Conley are banged up and might even miss time in the series against Portland, who after being the most healthy team in the league last year are paying back all that good fortune in 2015. Wesley Matthews is out, but the addition of “Mr. Black Boy Fly” Arron Afflalo should help their cause.
The fifth seeded Grizz will have home court to start, but that could swing quickly considering the health of Memphis’ starting backcourt. The strength of this team is undoubtedly the interior, but LaMarcus Aldridge’s ability to take Z-Bo and or Marc Gasol away from the basket and do mid-range work should help neutralize the Grizzlies interior D.
Portland needs to remember LA is their best player. As nice as Damian Lillard is, he didn’t progress in his third year like many expected and he’s still a nightmare defensively. In fact, the Blazers have now usurped the Lakers as the team point guards around the league get most excited to play against. Every PG TORCHES Portland, it’s a law of nature. But Conley’s injury might not allow him to take advantage.
This matchup is a tossup. I’m really tempted to pick Portland because Aldridge is the best player in this series, but then I realized the team “the Blazers don’t want to see” is the…Memphis Grizzlies! The Grizz knocked off Portland four times at four different points in the season. They also just feel like a tougher team than the finesse-based Blazers, and Portland really ain’t trying to see a Game 7 in The Grindhouse, so…
Grizzlies in seven (assuming Conley and Allen play all seven).
The Grizzlies don’t want to see the…Golden State Warriors. Nobody wants to see the Warriors at this point, but this is a particularly bad matchup for Memphis, as they don’t have the speed or versatility to keep up with Kerr’s crew. They say in boxing “styles make fights”— this would make for an intriguing fight, but the Warriors are better at their style than Memphis is at their own. Unless they find a way to punish GSW for playing Draymond Green heavy minutes at power forward or center, the Warriors will roll.
Remember this? This actually happened!
(3) Los Angeles Clippers vs (6) San Antonio Spurs
And to think I thought the last series was tough to call.
This is a heavyweight championship title fight in the first round. The shame of it is people will be writing Chris Paul’s obituary if the Clippers lose this series, despite the fact that losing to the defending champion Spurs for any team at any point in the playoffs is perfectly defensible. HHSR had the Clippers beating the Thunder last year, which they almost did. But Paul’s meltdown in Game 5, plus the Donald Sterling fiasco derailed their season.
Kawhi Leonard has been out of his mind recently on both ends; it will be interesting to see if Pop deploys his best perimeter defender against CP3, for how long and at what point of the game. If Kawhi is great offensively and on the glass, the Clips are in trouble. But where LA has a distinct advantage is in their athleticism up front. Tim Duncan, as great as he is, won’t want to deal Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan. Jordan averaged 14 points and 17 rebounds a night the last three months of the season (why is nobody talking about this?)! Tiago Splitter is still hurt too. That leaves Duncan, Boris Diaw and Aaron Baynes to bounce around with Blake & DJ. That’s not good. Perhaps the move for Pop is to put Leonard on Blake, but who’s left to deal with CP and his lethal mid-range game?
The Spurs have a decided advantage at bench depth, experience and even coaching. The fact that Pop will get to toy with Los Angeles every time Austin Rivers checks into the game is frightening. Doc Rivers will have to ride his top guys until the wheels fall off to even have a chance. But Chris Paul should be up for this task. He played all 82 games this season for the first time in his career and he has some unfinished playoff business with the San Antonio…
In spite of what you just (hopefully) watched, Paul and the Hornets actually lost that series somehow. Then the Spurs swept Paul and the Clippers out of the playoffs in 2012. Basically, the Spurs are to Chris Paul what the Celtics used to be to LeBron James.
As you no doubt recall, we picked the Spurs to win the 2014 NBA Championship before the season, but didn’t pick them to repeat this year. They’ve never repeated in the Duncan/Pop era and this old group has made deep playoff runs each of the last three season. I’m not wavering off of this prediction now. The fact that San Antonio finished the season red hot (won 11 of their last 12 games) is negated by the Clippers also finishing the season strong (lost only seven games since the All-Star break). Somebody has to beat the Spurs, it just seems preposterous that they would ever bow out in round one. They also appear to be better than the Clippers on the eye test alone.
The heart says Clippers, but the head says the Spurs. Still, the desire for this Clippers team to make a deep playoff run has to burn a little bit brighter than the desire for this Spurs team to just win “another one”. Right? Right???
Clippers in seven.
The Clippers don’t want to see the…Golden State Warriors. Yeah, them again. They beat the Clips three times this year and Curry repeatedly made Chris Paul the #1 trending topic on twitter…and never for a good reason.
The Spurs don’t want to see the…Dallas Mavericks. Not as big of a coaching advantage for the Spurs over the Mavs as many might think and Dallas took the eventually champions to seven games in round one last year. Dirk and TD have done battle in many-a-spring in years past. He don’t want to see Dirk again.
(2) Houston Rockets vs (7) Dallas Mavericks
HHSR had the Mavs winning the West in the preseason— I think now might be a good time to move off this prediction. The midseason trade for Rajon Rondo was supposed to put Dallas over the top, but the pieces never quite meshed and Rondo, and already shaky shooter, has had a horrific shooting season, even from the foul line. Rondo’s though has always been a big game player, so it stands to reason he might have something special in store for at least a few games this April.
The Rockets were the second seed for much of the year, then lost it, then got it back on the final day of the season. They’ll have homecourt, but they’ll face a team that lives and works just up the street. They’ll also be facing a team with so many vets, the homecourt advantage shouldn’t mean a ton.
Houston must use their athleticism to beat up Dallas on the glass. While Tyson Chandler can defend Dwight Howard on the block, which is cool, they probably won’t have any answer for James Harden, who lit up the Mavs in the playoffs when he was still coming off the bench in Oklahoma City. Harden will have to duplicate his one-man-band exploits in the playoffs for this team to go anywhere.
But the Mavs aren’t your average seven seed. They’re a savvy bunch that can score with any team in the league. The Rockets will also be without Patrick Beverley and Donatas Motiejunas, while Dallas is getting Chandler Parsons back. Kevin McHale’s “all-Harden, all-the-time” offense won’t be able to keep up with this Dallas team. The Mavs won’t make the Finals, but they can win this favorable matchup in what could be Dirk’s last stand.
Mavericks in six.
The Mavs don’t want to see the…Memphis Grizzlies. Golden State would’ve been appropriate here, but the Grizz won three of four this year vs Dallas and their gritty style is in direct contrast to the type of style and pace the Mavs would like to play.
The Rockets don’t want to see the…Portland Trail Blazers. Could’ve gone a few different ways here, but that narrow playoff defeat last season was painful for Houston. This season, there’s no Beverley to chase Lillard around and nobody to take advantage of his defensive liabilities on the other end. Plus, Portland took two of three this season and LaMarcus Aldridge destroyed them last year.
The stars have aligned for the Splash Bros. to make a trip to the NBA Finals.
There you have it! As for West representative in the Finals, Dallas could make a run, but they seem unlikely to win three consecutive series on the road. All season, we knew the seedings would determine how the West would be won; knowing now how the bracket fell and which teams matchup with which best, or worst as spelled out in this column, Golden State is the team to beat.
I don’t love the Warriors as much as most— they’re actually similar to the 2009 Cavaliers, who dominated from start to finish leading the league in wins and point differential, saw their star player win his first MVP and went 39-2 at home. But when faced with adversity for the first time in the postseason, the Cavs folded like origami. Hard to say whether or not the Warriors will suffer the same fate, but their road of having to defeat New Orleans and either Memphis or Portland just to get to the conference finals works out extremely well for them. If anybody but the Spurs matches up with them in the third round, it’ll be smooth sailing for Curry and Dub Nation to the NBA Finals, where LeBron James and Co. will be waiting. Anxiously.