I’m gonna level with y’all— I damn near have the shakes I’m so hyped for Super Bowl XLIX. Sure, Tom Brady going for his fourth championship in six trips is part of it, but it’s deeper than that. There’s also the fact that HHSR had the Patriots winning the Super Bowl before the 2014 season began, and with a New England victory, would continue a Cal Ripken-like streak of prognostications on this site.
Going in chronological order, we’ve correctly predicted the Miami Heat to win the 2013 NBA Championship, the Seattle Seahawks winning Super Bowl XLVIII and the San Antonio Spurs winning the 2014 NBA title, ALL before the season started. We also had Ohio State beating Alabama AND Oregon in the inaugural College Football Playoff. HHSR even had LeBron going back to Cleveland, Macklemore dominating the 2014 Grammy Awards (but not enough to win Album of the Year) and we told you to keep an eye on the San Francisco Giants during the Major League Baseball playoffs (we said the same thing about the St. Louis Cardinals, so partial credit).
Sidebar: For the record, all of this is documented on hiphopsportsreport.com and or The Preseason Podcast of the Year.
But most importantly, this is shaping up to be an incredible football game, which is why HHSR felt compelled to come at you with a new Hot 16 to help explain how we arrived at our prediction for Super Bowl XLIX.
1) Respect- We also had the Seahawks in the Super Bowl to start the playoffs. Yes, they’re pretty damn good.
2) The Ugly Truth- Yet, they looked like trash against Green Bay. Seattle was dead to rights two weeks ago, I don’t care what Doug Baldwin says.
3) Two Sides To A Story- The Patriots were on the brink of elimination three weeks ago against the Ravens, but we saw that coming too way back in November and when we picked BMore to beat the Steelers in the Wild Card Round.
4) More Ugly Truth- Meanwhile, Seattle (Kam Chancellor notwithstanding) looked rather pedestrian against the Carolina Panthers in the Divisional Round.
Of course, this along isn’t enough to base a quality prediction. So let’s dig a little deeper.
5) Rising To The Occasion- New England ripped off a remarkable midseason stretch where they demolished seven quality teams (Cincinnati, Buffalo, Denver, Indianapolis, Detroit, San Diego and Miami). Overall, the Patriots went 4-1 against playoff teams (the W’s were a combined score of 162-67). They clearly saved their best for their best opponents.
6) Numbers Lie– Seattle was 5-1 against playoff teams, however a closer inspection reveals one of those wins was against Carolina (the only sub .500 playoff team), and two came against the Cardinals, who were quarterbacked by Drew Stanton and Ryan Lindley.
7) Flawless Victory- The three toughest games on the Seahawks schedule all came at home (2-1). Granted, Seattle can’t help this, and they more than took care of business when needed. While this team seems to shapeshift Shang Tsung style when away from CenturyLink Field, they looked just fine away from home last February. So, perhaps this point is irrelevant.
8) Legion Of Boom– Last year, Seattle basically concluded Peyton Manning could not beat them deep, so the defense sat back and keep everything in front of them. Once when the opportunity presented itself, they TEED OFF on the Broncos receivers. It’s easy to envision them employing a similar strategy against a Patriots offense that prefers to beat teams sideline to sideline (with undersized receivers) rather than over the top. Tom Brady has also struggled completing deep passes for…awhile now.
9) The Gronk Factor- On the other hand, the Seahawks have struggled defending tight ends all season and are now matched up with the tight end to end all tight ends, Rob Gronkowski. One can only assume the Seahawks know this; if they decide to focus their attention heavily on Gronk, it could free up said undersized receivers to do damage.
10) A Sideline Story- Bill Belichick vs Pete Carroll is pretty much a wash. Although, Belichick has a knack for making young quarterbacks (even very good ones) look like young quarterbacks. Expect the Pats to take away the read-option Seattle leans so heavily upon, thus forcing Seahawks signal-caller Russell Wilson to beat the Patriots from the pocket. Expect New England to blitz very little and keep a spy on Wilson at all times to limit his scrambling ability.
11) Genius At Work- Wilson is a hell of a leader, but he’s coming off his worst game as a professional. He won’t be that bad again, but isn’t it possible he could be exposed by the ageless Belichick, who has been scheming on QBs in the Super Bowl literally since before Wilson was born?
12) Running Amok- Despite being ninth best in the NFL against the run, you can run on the Patriots. Justin Forsett did damage for the Ravens, and the Seahawks have Marshawn Lynch, which spells trouble for New England. But, despite being third best in the league, you can run on the Seahawks too.
13) Numbers Lie Part II- Speaking of the Seattle defense, don’t let the numbers fool you— they’ve fallen off a bit from last year. Their interior line is banged up (or gone through free agency), they don’t get nearly as much pressure on the QB as they once did (20th in the league in sacks — only three in two playoff games, and Rodgers couldn’t even run) and they were 21st in takeaways this year. This team ranked significantly better in these areas 12 months ago. Throw in the weak QB’s they’ve faced to inflate some of their points/yards allowed statistics and there’s reason to be slightly skeptical of this unit.
Slightly.
Sidebar: And Richard Sherman just might be overrated.
14) Cost/Benefit Analysis- During our NFC podcast preview, Seattle was called “the best team in the NFL since the 2004 Patriots”, ironically the last team to win consecutive Super Bowls. It was easy to love this group, but difficult to pick them to repeat because it is such a rarity in the NFL nowadays. Trading away Percy Harvin may have helped the Seahawks get back to this point, but his departure now shines a light on the lack of game-breaking talent at receiver or in the return game. Darrelle Revis and Seattle turncoat Brandon Browner, as well as Jamie Collins and Rob Ninkovich — two of the best coverage linebackers in the league — should be able to slow down the incumbent champion’s passing attack.
15) All Three Phases- The Patriots have the best special teams teams in the NFL, a more complete offense and a very good defense. They were a shade better than Seattle in turnover differential during the season, and of course, will have 25 deflated footballs ready to aid their cause.
16) GLA- Sarcasm aside, I learned long ago that, while he’s not perfect, you won’t get far in life betting against Tom Brady.
We’re sticking with our preseason Super Bowl pick by a narrow margin, in part because repeating is really hard. Based on recent history, our word is bond.