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As pointed out by many, the NBA playoffs typically carries on too long and is too predictable—kind of like every Tyler Perry movie ever. However, due to three consecutive years of Finals-level parity, timely if unfortunate injuries and a handful of critical offseason moves last summer, this year’s postseason should be quite different.

In short, this is arguably the most compelling group of first round matchups/playoff season we’ve seen in quite some time. Sixteen teams enter the NBA playoffs this weekend: Seems like the perfect time for The Hot 16!

(2) Golden State Warriors vs. (7) San Antonio Spurs

Warriors: For all the crap we give Cleveland for not trying, sucking on defense and not responding to/receiving poor coaching, the Warriors are absolutely in the same boat. It might actually be worse. They’re playing round one without the guy that’s premium octane for their offense, and they’ve compounded their underwhelming season with more techs and ejections than Rasheed Wallace could shake a stick at. They’re still the Warriors though. But, Curry’s health and the overall funk this team has been in all year cannot be ignored.

Spurs: If only Kawhi Leonard were playing. Things got weird for the Patriots and the Patriots of the NBA this past season. Gregg Popovich will have moments where he makes this thing interesting, and LaMarcus Aldridge has had a tremendous bounce back season (so much so that the NBA should revive the Comeback Player of the Year Award, or he should probably receive Most Improved Player votes [that’s 87% a joke]). But they won’t have enough firepower to pull off the upset.

Warriors in five (assuming Kawhi doesn’t play).

(1) Toronto Raptors vs. (8) Washington Wizards

Wizards: “You know the type, loud as a motorbike, but wouldn’t bust a grape in a fruit fight.” This team ran their collective mouth so much, they somehow ran out of targets and turned on each other. John Wall’s performance has been mercurial since his return from injury. Bradley Beal has been solid, but it’s hard to predict how he’ll mesh with Wall at this stage of their now rocky relationship.

Raptors: You know the type—regular season juggernauts, trash in the playoffs. That appears to be the destiny of this Toronto team. They’re good: top five offensively and defensively, they have depth and are well coached. But in the playoffs, you’ll only go as far as your stars take you. Nobody who’s been watching NBA basketball the last five years should trust this team to take you to a Circle K, let alone the NBA Finals. It may sound like reductionist reasoning, but holla back when DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry stop being garbage in the playoffs.

We should all be sick of these two teams, but somebody has to win.

Raptors in seven.

(3) Philadelphia 76ers vs. (6) Miami Heat

Sixers: Philly is on fire right now, but the 76ers/Ben Simmons hype-train has gotten way out of hand. Not to say they aren’t very good; Philly fans should have every reason to be excited. But really, this is a young team that caught fire at the right time in large part due to playing a marshmallow schedule down the stretch. No team has ever won 16 straight to enter the playoffs (how’s that for a hot 16?), but well over half of those W’s came against the Knicks (2x), Nets (2x), Hawks (2x), Magic, Mavs, Pistons, Hornets (2x), Nuggets and Grizzlies (aka non-playoff teams). For the last five years, everyone told us this league was all about pace & space, analytics and corner three’s. So why now are we to suddenly to believe a team whose two best players are an inexperienced/always injured back-to-the-basket big and an inexperienced point guard who didn’t made a single three-pointer all season? NOT ONE (0-11)!

Sidebar: Markelle Fultz is back, but he can’t shoot either.

Heat: If there’s a coach who should expose Ben Simmons, it should be Erik Spoelstra. He’s overrated, but many feel he’s among the best coaches in the game. Dwyane Wade still has gas in the tank, and without Joel Embiid, Hasaan Whiteside should feast on Philly (if they actually play him). Let’s see how good Spoelstra and his misfit team really is.

76ers in seven.

(3) Portland Trail Blazers vs. (6) New Orleans Pelicans

Blazers: We know about their guards. But is there enough up front to combat one of the best big men in the league? Terry Stotts is a very good coach, but although they’re solid defensively, Portland will have a hard time holding down Anthony Davis. They better thank their lucky stars DeMarcus Cousins is out. Perhaps Portland’s most impressive feat was winning the most competitive division in the NBA, even if they were only three games from the last place.

Pelicans: AD will be the best player on the court. And similar to Minnesota Kevin Love, Davis puts up monster numbers but hasn’t had any playoff success in his first five seasons (exactly one playoff appearance, zero wins). If there was ever a time for him to assert himself as one of the top five players in the world, Davis has to win this series, with or without Boogie Cousins.

Pelicans in six.

(4) Cleveland Cavaliers vs. (5) Indiana Pacers

Pacers: Talk about being dealt a bad hand. This is the fifth time in seven years Indy has drawn LeBron in the postseason, and the second straight year in round one. You might have forgotten about last year’s series. Here’s a recap:

Paul George is gone now, but somehow, Victor Oladipo returned to Indiana and morphed into 2005 Dwyane Wade. Indy surprised a lot of people this year, but being decent an many things and not great at anything won’t get you passed The King.

Cavaliers: True, the 2017-18 Cavaliers defense was somehow worse than last year’s. And despite LeBron James being at least partially to blame for Kyrie Irving’s exit, the Cavs are still the favorite in this conference. James has been beyond stellar (offensively) and though he won’t win MVP, he has had a better statistical season than presumptive winner James Harden. Cleveland was also snake bitten this year: poor chemistry, an ailing coach, the death of Jae Crowder’s mother, the death of Kyle Korver’s brother, injuries (specifically to Kevin Love), Derrick Rose going AWOL, a midseason roster shakeup and all things Tristan Thompson-Kardashian. Still, they finished with the sixth best record in the NBA.

Cavs in five.

(2) Boston Celtics vs. (7) Milwaukee Bucks

Celtics: Boston has been lacking the luck of the Irish, too. Now down Gordon Hayward, Marcus Smart AND Kyrie, the C’s are looking worse off than when the entered the playoffs last year with Isaiah Thomas as the lead dog. They’re still the best coached team in the NBA outside of San Antonio, and their youthful core of Jaylen Brown, Jason Tatum and Terry Rozier was forced to grow up much faster than anticipated, and did well in that spot. The more playoff reps these guys get, the better for Boston…down the road.

Bucks: It’s easy to blame coaching in this situation, but is it fair? The Bucks underachieved this year, considering Giannis Antetokounmpo is so good, he’s getting features on 60 Minutes. Somehow, they fired their coach midseason and finished seventh in the East. But they have more talent than Boston right now—daresay, a lot more.

Players versus coaches. An age old philosophical debate will be answered in this series.

Bucks in six.

(4) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (5) Utah Jazz

Jazz: Utah cannot be commended enough for the season they’ve had. Led by super-rook Donovan Mitchell (who should win Rookie of the Year, and not just because Ben Simmons shouldn’t be considered a rookie), Utah surprised everyone to capture the four seed out West. Mitchell has not only replaced Gordon Hayward, he’s been better. It took Hayward seven seasons to finally hit the 20 ppg plateau, a mark Mitchell hit in 2018. Finishing second in defensive efficiency and points allowed, Utah has the best defensive team in the NBA, and Quin Snyder will make life difficult on an undisciplined Oklahoma City team.

Thunder: If the Thunder can’t get out of this round, their entire season will be a disaster. Russ has been dynamic, but frustrating, which is Russ by definition. Paul George has been incredible defensively, but has struggled with his shot of since March. Carmelo Anthony has been an all-around disappointment, but largely because our collective expectations for him in year 15 were out of whack. On paper, this isn’t a great matchup for OKC. But they still have the size (Rudy Golbert notwithstanding), experience and athleticism advantages.

Thunder in six.

(1) Houston Rockets vs. (8) Minnesota Timberwolves

TWolves: If Jimmy Butler didn’t get hurt, it would’ve been interesting to see where this team would’ve gone. As it stands, they needed OT to sneak in the back door of the playoffs. Minnesota is talented and a difficult draw for Houston. We know Butler and Karl-Anthony Towns will show up, but for them to have any chance, Andrew Wiggins will have to imagine he’s playing against the Cavs—the only team he’s ever consistently excited to go in on.

Rockets: Houston has been a buzz saw from jump this season. Their win percentage in games played by Harden, Chris Paul and Clint Capela are otherworldly (42-3)—they should all be in uniform Sunday night. Though Houston is led by two stars and a coach who have all underachieved in the playoffs, Paul’s heart will carry them to places Harden’s talent couldn’t take them. It’s fair to wonder what this team will do when punched in the mouth, and Minnesota will do just that. But they don’t have enough punch to keep up with these Rocket launchers. Oh, Houston’s also sixth in defensive rating and fewest points allowed, and they lead the team in hunger. That spells legitimate championship contender.

Rockets in six.

Justin’s NBA Finals pick: Rockets over Cavs in six.

Anthony’s NBA Finals pick: Warriors over Cavs