Log In Register
Lost your password?
A password will be e-mailed to you.

In a year devoid of any major stories in the week leading up to America’s national sporting holiday, one major story is hiding in plain sight.

Nope, it isn’t the impending four-knuckle shuffle between Michael Strahan and Warren Sapp. It isn’t Marshawn Lynch declining to say more than 25 words in each media session. It isn’t the role of divine intervention in sports. And it DEFINITELY ain’t Peyton Manning’s gratuitous use of the word “Omaha”.

Sidebar: Seriously, who GIVES A SHIT about Peyton Manning saying “Omaha” a bunch of times? Peyton has been yelling out wacky stuff at the line of scrimmage his entire career, as do most quarterbacks. So why is everyone peeing on themselves with glee every time Peyton screams out a word that may or may not have any significance within the context of the game? So while the charitable component is cool, in general, this has to be the dumbest story ever.

The major story is the game! The game itself! We have the two teams that most predicted would be here back in August squaring off for footballs highest prize. The two teams that finished tied for the league’s best record (13-3), the two teams that were the top seed in each of their respective conferences coming into the playoffs, the two best teams in football have arrived in New York City. What a novel concept to actually focus on football when the gridiron gods granted us a game featuring two teams that are in no way here by accident.

Shame on you if you read one article about the manufactured trash talk that took place in the days leading up to Super Sunday. Any real football fan should be intently focused on watching these two juggernauts play. And why do you play???

YOU PLAY TO WIN THE GAME!!!

 

 

So, who exactly wins Super Bowl XLVIII?

Well, if you’ve followed HHSR at all this year, you could probably guess where this article is headed. Although the Denver Broncos seem pretty convinced I don’t know what the hell I’m talking about. Never were the Broncos slighted because they weren’t talented enough, or because they weren’t capable of reaching this stage. The Broncos were sculpted in the image of a champion from the top down. From ownership and management (Pat Bowlen and John Elway— two Super Bowl championships and five appearances together in the Mile High city), to the head coach (John Fox— one Super Bowl appearance), to the quarterback (Peyton Manning— one Super Bowl championship and two appearances).

The Super Bowl was the expectation for these Denver Broncos all season, ever since Elway ethered his team after a preseason blowout loss to…the Seattle Seahawks. Five months later, the Broncos are locked in on their third title in franchise history and Peyton Manning is one Peyton Manning-esque performance away from solidifying the greatest single-season by a quarterback in NFL history.

As stated on the HHSR Podcast, Manning has the opportunity to exercise every last demon in one fell swoop. Big games, cold weather, Brady & Belichick— Peyton won’t leave much room for criticism if he can pull it off. But as Super Bowl opponents go, the Seahawks, in the crisp February air of New Jersey, is basically your real world equivalent to All-Madden mode.

The weather issue is a real thing, regardless if Manning wants to admit it publicly or not (although the latest forecast calls for mid-40s with a slight chance of rain, another massive break from Mother Nature for the Broncos). Not only has Peyton historically not been as sharp as the temperature dips, but the Broncos style of play is not nearly as conducive to this type of environment as Seattle’s (these two facts are in no way mutually exclusive). The Seahawks bring the league’s most authoritative defense and running game to NYC (and a pretty damn good special teams unit too). Winning games in the trenches is Seattle’s specialty, and though Peyton was able to best a rugged Bears defense in extremely rainy conditions in 2007 to win his only Super Bowl, Denver and their brand of finesse football would rather not get into a Seattle slugfest. Peyton is as much of a tactician as we’ve ever seen; the last thing he wants is to turn this into Gatti/Ward IV.

Sidebar: Rest in peace, Arturo. The Jersey native probably would’ve loved to have seen this game up close. And by the way, you can easily lose an entire evening watching old clips from the Gatti/Ward Trilogy.

Ironically, getting hit is the one thing Peyton has managed to avoid during these NFL playoffs. Manning has not taken a sack and has literally been hit only once in eight quarters thus far, a testament to his offensive line and his pinpoint precision. It seems like ages ago when he was dropping back on two sprained ankles in November, but it’s easy to heal up when you’re not taking any punishment. It’s up to head coach Pete Carrol and defensive coordinator Dan Quinn to figure out a way to get consistent pressure on Manning.

Sidebar: Also, if I’m Quinn, I’m doing everything in my power to eliminate Demaryius Thomas and Julius Thomas from this game, while trying to force Denver to beat me on the shoulders of Eric Decker, Wes Welker and Knowshon Moreno. Why? Because Decker & Welker (while very good) aren’t as dangerous after the catch as the Thomas’. And as for Knowshon? Well…

Thank you Shady McCoy! You see? Richard Sherman isn’t the first player to call out another player for sucking.

The one-hand-washes-the-other nature of the Seahawks’ league-leading defense will come in handy on Sunday against arguably the best offense of all-time. The “Legion of Boom” secondary gets most of the headlines, but the Seahawks pass rush ain’t too shabby either (tied for eighth in the NFL in sacks). The pass rush should benefit from the physicality of the secondary, who should be able to disrupt the timing on some routes by not allowing the receivers to get off the line without a healthy bump. Conversely, the rush should stand to gain from the secondary’s ability to cover Denver’s lethal receivers for more than three seconds without getting picked apart by Peyton.

It may even be worth it to the Seahawks (who are not opposed to picking up a penalty/fine) to take a late hit flag or two on Manning, just to send a message. Nothing egregious, but just enough to get him shook. The more Peyton starts patting that ball and chopping those feet in the pocket, the better for Seattle.

The Seahawks ability to take the football away was referenced in last week’s championship weekend column. After forcing three 49er turnovers on their final three possessions of the fourth quarter, everyone was reminded exactly why this defense was so special. Winning the turnover battle is as big a reason as any why Seattle finds themselves on the cusp of the city’s first major pro sports championship in 35 years. Given the typical Super Bowl jitters that tend to swallow up the early moments of this game, the Seahawks ability get stops and control clock with Lynch, the recent decline in Broncos scoring output (25 points per game in the playoffs, down from 38 per game during the season — meanwhile Seattle’s defense hasn’t fallen off at all in the playoffs) and the weather, one can conclude that this game could easily be a (relatively) low scoring contest. If Seattle can manage to snag a few turnovers, they’re almost guaranteed a victory. Of course, the same can be said for Denver, but forcing turnovers is the Seahawks calling card and if they can do it, the Broncos likely won’t reach 25 points, which should be about the magic number for them in this game.

This is about the only way you can envision the Seahawks winning. The Broncos only played only four defenses in the top half of the league this year— could this be the reason why they ran up 600 points???

The other factor few seem to be considering is how the Broncos plan on containing Russell Wilson. Denver’s defense can shut down the run (ask Legarrette Blount), but they’ve ran up against two statues (Rivers and Brady) and haven’t played a mobile quarterback whose game is actually built around them being mobile since October. And that depends on how you feel about Andrew Luck and a hobbled RG3. Either way, look for Wilson to use his cunning to pick up a couple of critical 3rd downs.

Richard Sherman seems to have a lot more respect for Manning after a game than he does Brady,…or Michael Crabtree.

As of right now, the Seattle Seahawks are 2.5 point underdogs in Super Bowl XLIII. Nobody wants to bet against Peyton Manning after this year he’s had.

Fine. It’s easy to get on board with that logic.

HHSR has picked against the Broncos all year, in large part because the expectation of Peyton Manning to find a way to lose in the playoffs cannot escape my psyche. HHSR also picked the Seahawks to win the Super Bowl at the beginning of the season, and there’s no reason to move off of that prediction now.

You might not find a more overused cliché by sports prognosticators than “offense sells tickets, defense wins championships,” but just because it’s cliché, doesn’t make it any more unfounded. If you notice, I have a tendency to lean towards history, and history would suggest that the Seahawks are the team that has the right recipe for success. Furthermore, Pete Carroll’s camp has managed to navigate the far more difficult course in its route to The Big Apple. The NFC was the superior conference from start to finish in 2013 and Seattle finished atop the most dangerous division in the NFL— the only division with three 10-win teams and a last place team team that finished 7-9.

All this means the Seahawks are the more battle-tested group. They’ve played just as good as Denver versus better overall competition this season. In fairness to the Broncos, the Seahawks haven’t faced an offense anything like Denver’s this year, but the guys from the Pacific Northwest just appear to be the tougher and more physical team. Nine times out of ten, that’s the football team you’re better off putting your dough on.

HHSR has super expectations for Super Bowl Sunday. Expect the national anthem, the halftime show, the pregame show and the commercials to let you down. But not the game.

Not THIS game.