There are so many thoughts about the AFC & NFC Championship Games and what we’ve gotten right and wrong this season…we’ll have to save those for a podcast. For now, it’s Rams vs. Patriots (again) for the NFL Championship. Let’s not waste any time!
Sidebar: Ya boy currently sits at 39-17 in HHSR history in the first two rounds of the playoffs and 7-7 on Championship Weekend. Our Super Bowl record is 3-3, leaving us with an all-time NFL playoff record of 49-27 picking games straight up.
(#2) Los Angeles Rams vs. (#2) New England Patriots (-2.5)
One of these teams was absolutely better during the regular season. The other has clearly been better through two postseason games. The Rams outclassed the Cowboys two weeks ago, but if not for the worst blown (non) call since the 2018 NBA Finals, they probably wouldn’t be in Atlanta right now.
Like the ’18 Cavs, the Saints were unable to emotionally recover from having a playoff game ripped from their hands (even if they were complicit in their own demise). But the Rams probably should’ve lost to the Saints. And if we’re being fair, the Saints probably should’ve lost to the Eagles. And the Eagles probably should’ve lost to the Bears.
It may not be a coincidence that these NFC teams that snuck out W’s earlier in the playoffs met their maker the following week, in which case, time is ticking on these young Rams.
Here’s five quick things working in their favor though:
- They easily have more talent than New England top to bottom.
- There isn’t an ounce of complacency in their locker room. This isn’t to say that there is any in the Patriots locker room. But if one team were to somehow let apathy set in, it would probably be the one returning to the Super Bowl for the third straight year, the fourth time in five years, the fifth time in eight years and the ninth time in 18 years. Not the young upstarts.
- Their best player (Aaron Donald) plays the position that could most directly disrupt Tom Brady.
- The Rams just watched the inexperienced Eagles take out the Pats in this same spot just last year.
- The Patriots could be mentally, physically and emotionally fatigued by multiple long playoff runs.
Last week I said Jared Goff would be almost ready to take the leap to being a Super Bowl quarterback, but he proved his time was now after ballin out beginning late in the first half. It was the stuff of legend for a young quarterback looking to build a reputation. Goff was memorizing when it mattered most, and his defense was just good enough to prevent the game from getting out of hand.
Aaron Donald was again a magnet for double teams, like scuffs to a new pair of J’s, allowing Ndamukong Suh to have his best game as a Ram. The Saints rushing attack was completely stymied, as was the Cowboys the week before. The Patriots entire 20-year run has been defined by their chameleon-like ability to adapt to their opponents while neutralizing their strengths. New England made it a point to run the ball early and often against the Chargers and Chiefs, but expect Josh McDaniels to spread out LA to test their hot-headed secondary early.
Sidebar: Especially after the luckiest man in America decided to push his luck and tempt fate by calling out the GOAT. Can’t put that toothpaste back in the tube, bruh. Ask Anthony Smith.
As so many have used the past week to heap praise upon Bill Belichick (mostly deserved) for his gameplan and execution in the AFC Title Game, Belichick’s D gave up an alarming 24 points in the fourth quarter to Kansas City, who only had the ball for THREE MINUTES in the quarter! TWENTY-FOUR POINTS IN THREE MINUTES IS IMPOSSIBLE! The Rams have had one of the NFL’s most explosive offenses since Sean McVay took over as coach—there has to be some concern over New England’s ability to hold down the Rams indoors for 60 minutes.
People don’t normally talk kickers, but they tend to have an impact on the Super Bowl. Advantage: Rams & Greg Zuerlein
The status of Todd Gurley is still uncertain. He’ll play, but how much? And how effective will he be? Natrone Means C.J. Anderson has a Super Bowl ring and will be ready to take down the Patriots in the playoffs again, but he alone cannot win this game. Gurley not only appeared limited by injury in the NFC Title Game, he actually stunk in the game and appeared effected by the moment. Gurley is the focal point of this offense and the Pats, like the Rams, were one of the worst teams in the league defending the run during the regular season on a per carry basis. It’s entirely possible the Rams are being a bit coy with Gurley’s injury and a healthy TG could catch the Patriots by surprise Sunday…
But maybe Tom Brady was playing opossum too.
Maybe TB12 learned something from the Deflategate suspension. Maybe he took the foot off the gas during the regular season, went out of his way to protect himself from taking too many hits, purposefully used Rob Gronkowski only sparingly (we mentioned Gronk may have something left in the tank prior to the AFC Championship) and was comfortable handing the ball off for huge chunks of the season, all to prepare himself for this moment.
Too old? Brady was too old last year. And you remember him putting up a Super Bowl and playoff record 505 passing yards. Brady’s been proving talking heads wrong over and over and over again. Only the stupidest of the stupid still take shots at him.
Ole’ Calm Tom proved again in Kansas City he’s capable of throwing the cape on in crisis. Specifically on 3rd down, where he was run audibling like a fool in the first half and was masterful in the fourth quarter and OT (Brady was 9-11 on 3rd down for 119 yards—the guy engineered two (would be) game-winning touchdown drives in the fourth, THEN DID IT AGAIN in overtime).
Here’s five quick things working in the Patriots favor:
- The Pats have been overcomers all season. They stunk at times on the road, they brought in the most unreliable player in football to save their receiving corp (which failed miserably), Gronk looked to be on his last legs, they blew the #1 seed, Brady underwhelmed, Edelman was coming off an injury/suspension…and they’re #StillHere.
- Experience. By now you know: the Patriots have it, the Rams don’t.
- The Pats are healthy and are playing their absolute best football at the right time.
- Because of everything mentioned in #1, New England convinced themselves they’re underdogs. It is funny how disingenuous the national media is being now that the Pats are in Atlanta. They scoff at the Pats claiming the underdog role, as if everybody didn’t count them out all season.
- Julian Incredible is back. His clutch playmaking and leadership was actually missed verses the Eagles, in spite of how well the offense performed.
It may be a bit reductionist to simply lay this game at the feet of the Rams D-line’s ability to get to Brady, specifically up the middle, with just four rushers. We’ll know early on what type of game this will be—if Brady is getting knocked around early, it’ll be a long day for New England. However, getting to Brady doesn’t necessarily guarantee victory for the opposition, but NOT getting to Brady is a death wish. Knowing this, and knowing his history as the dirtiest player in the league who should’ve been thrown out of football long ago, the Pats should be extremely concerned that Ndamukong Suh might do something crazy to injure Tom Brady just to get him out of the game. And if he’s ejected, fined or suspended, so be it (no, seriously)—at least his team will have a better chance against Brian Hoyer. Remember to what lengths Joe Flacco said he would stoop to win a Super Bowl? What do you think a guy like Suh might do?
Sidebar: That last link doesn’t even include all of the questionable plays Suh’s been involved with.
It’s interesting to note the Rams were the betting favorites immediately following the AFC Championship Game, until Pats public money flooded Vegas and pushed the line to New England -2.5. That’s a sign. (You can’t help but wonder what the line would be if the Patriots game were played first, and if the Rams weren’t aided by the horrific PI no-call). Now, almost every prognosticator is picking the Patriots. That’s another sign. Also, this year’s Rams are probably better than last year’s Eagles, and last year’s Patriots were arguably better than this year’s Patriots. Yet another sign.
The head says this is lining up perfectly for Los Angeles to steal the show and the game on Sunday. But the heart says I wouldn’t be the Tom Brady believer that I am if I went around picking against him in the Super Bowl all willy-nilly. Jared Goff will play well, but he’ll miss Cooper Kupp. Todd Gurley still won’t be 100% and the Patriots will take him away anyway. And Belichick will be able to weather Sean McVay’s counter-punch enough for Tom Brady to rise up late once again and walk away with another Super Bowl against the Rams, just as he did 17 years ago. Patriots win and narrowly cover.
#TheBrady6