So this hasn’t happened too often.
Usually, a prediction from HHSR is as reliable as a check on the 1st and the 15th. Last week wasn’t our best though. We went 0-2 on Championship Sunday, and to the surprise of many, the Denver Broncos will be squaring off against the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl 50.
Each team can look around its own locker room and confidently say they beat the odds just to even make it to Santa Clara. Despite both being #1 seeds at the start of the playoffs, few had this matchup predicted. In fact, Carolina wasn’t on anybody’s preseason Super Bowl radar, and by the time the playoffs arrived, Denver seemed to have the longest odds of any top seed in recent memory. The Broncos snuck out of Envesco Field with a narrow victory over the Patriots. What’s important about this win was not that they won in dominating defensive fashion, but that everybody counted them out before the opening kickoff, yours truly included, and still persevered.
And why shouldn’t we have? The Broncos had serious questions at the quarterback position, defeated the Pats only with a major assist for the zebras in the regular season, and looked extremely pedestrian against the Steelers the week prior. With an (alleged) one-armed quarterback, no Le’Veon Bell, Deangelo Williams or Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh’s offense went into Denver and moved the ball with relative ease. The blistering Broncos defense, which looked like it featured Lawrence Taylor and Lawrence Taylor rushing from each edge against New England, looked anything but Super Bowl worthy. DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller combined for one sack as the Steelers racked up over 400 yards of total offense. If not for a fumble by the fourth-string running back, Pittsburgh probably wins and travels to New England (who owns them) for the AFC Championship Game.
What changed? Besides the Patriots trotting out their JV offensive line and no running game to speak of, Denver seemed to come legitimately amp’d up to play a home playoff game against a team where nobody gave them a snowball’s chance in hell. The Broncos and their fans wanted the Patriots. They desperately wanted the challenge. Knowing what we know now, it’s easy to envision a scenario where if Kansas City upset New England, the Chiefs would’ve beaten the Broncos because the effort we saw against Tom Brady — knocking him to the turf an astonishing 23 times, the most a QB has been knocked down in any game in the last 10 years — wouldn’t have shown up for Alex Smith. Even with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.
The good news for Denver? Nobody is giving them a chance in the Super Bowl either.
When the clock struck midnight, the long slept-on Carolina Panthers went from Cinderella to Goliath! They didn’t cling to a victory like the Broncos, they stomped out a Super Bowl worthy Arizona Cardinals team, the week after the smacked the two-time defending NFC champions. All this, just a year removed from making the postseason as a sub .500 team.
There’s a lot to like about these Panthers. It’s fun to watch them play because every home game somehow turns into a pep rally. They give every football they score a TD with to a kid in the stands. And for every turnover the Panthers force, an angel gets its wings. This avalanche of a football team that was a 3.5 point favorite immediately following the NFC Championship Game is now a 6.5 point favorite at some sportsbooks. Like the Broncos understandably having little benefit of the doubt entering the New England game, the Panthers have earned every benefit of any doubt going into Sunday’s action.
Luke Kuechly and Josh Norman (left & center) deserve to be pictured. They’re that good.
For all the talk of Denver’s defense, Carolina led the league in takeaways and turnover differential by fairly comfortable margins. Impressive? In their two playoff games, they’ve generated nine turnovers! The Panthers are clicking on all three phases of the game— it’s almost come too easy to them. Denver will likely need to get an early lead because it’s difficult to imagine them making a comeback against this ball-hawking unit. Plus, we’ve seen the Broncos recently get demolished on this stage when getting down early, and that was back when they had the greatest offense in league history.
These Broncos definitely don’t have that. But they do possess all the guile imaginable in the form of #18, who will likely be making his last start in the NFL.
For all the criticism this observer has levied against Peyton Manning over the years (much of it predates this site’s existence), Manning is absolutely one of the greatest to ever do it. With seemingly every record in his back pocket and Super Bowl ring on his mantle, a victory shouldn’t do much more for his legacy. Physically, Manning is barely able to put on his pads, let alone play the position anything like he once did. A win Sunday will almost assuredly be in spite of him, rather than because of him, which isn’t a dig at The Sheriff. It’s just a fact. Regardless, there’s no reason for him to hang his head.
Peyton Manning is the gold standard of NFL quarterbacks. Even as the second best signal-caller of his generation, he’s the player other players, coaches and fans seem to respect the most. He has the endorsements and the earth-shattering contracts, but his legendary work ethic makes you realize he’s earned every penny (relatively speaking, of course).
Manning took a forgotten franchise best known for dipping out on the city of Baltimore in the middle of the night to two Super Bowls. He essentially built Lucas Oil Stadium with his own two hands (that he no longer has feeling in), which itself hosted a Super Bowl in 2011, resulting in a $150M increase in revenue for the city according to CBS News. He showed up every day for work for 13 straight seasons. And when injury forced him to miss time in 2011, he returned the following season to win Comeback Player of the Year. A year later, he would author the greatest single season by a quarterback in league history.
He owns more individual accolades than just about every player in the history of the sport, yet probably his greatest accomplishment might be participating in four Super Bowls with two teams (two trips each), with four different head coaches. He did this all while carrying the burden of being the most recognizable face in the country’s most powerful league, with a poise that only grew the league’s brand over the last two decades.
Elway laid the blueprint. Manning is executing it.
At a time when the NFL was coming off the Dallas Cowboys coke-fulled dynasty of the mid-90’s, Peyton’s “aww shucks” southern boy charm meshed perfectly with the middle-American market in which he landed. If Brett Favre was the NFL’s version of Shawn Michaels, Manning was Bret Hart. Cerebral, reliable, consistent and productive, minus the loose cannon/gunsling-y accompaniment. The league had to worry with Favre, who always lived life right near the edge. Manning was safe and predictable, but humerus enough to not be boring, like Russell Wilson.
My personal feelings towards Manning were never as negative as they appeared. Win or lose Sunday, he will remain one of the 10 best quarterbacks ever. But, (possibly against his will) the league and the media always portrayed him to be something that he wasn’t: the best quarterback of his generation and or the greatest quarterback of all-time. While he certainty looked the part, he fell short of earning either distinction; maybe his pro wrestling doppelganger is Hulk Hogan.
Sidebar: Manning was always more A-Rod than Jeter. If he’s any bit the competitor we all believe he is, even he would trade careers with Brady. Holding a 3-1 edge over Tom’s teams in AFC Championship games proves he was, if nothing else, an extremely worthy foe.
In any case, Peyton (for the majority of his career) has been a model teammate, leader and face of a franchise. This is the part where Cam Newton can pick up pen and pad, especially considering the Panthers should win the Super Bowl. Denver has an elite defense; Carolina has an elite offense, and an elite defense. The Panthers are talented and savvy enough to make Manning beat them by connecting on long throws downfield, something he hasn’t done well all season. For all the praises just sung of Manning, physically he just isn’t the same. Hence, numerous articles have trickled out this week calling him the worst quarterback ever to start a Super Bowl. Clearly, this is pejorative—he’s really just the oldest quarterback ever to start a Super Bowl, which is something of an accomplishment. In fairness, Peyton has been mistake-free this postseason. But it’ll take more than just not screwing up to slow these Carolina cats down.
This game will be over if Carolina hits 21 points, and if they don’t, the Panthers are still capable of winning a low-scoring affair. This is why they’re the pick to win Super Bowl 50, along with this ominous headline.
Sidebar: Kidding about that last part, but how does one not work the prostitution sting story into their Super Bowl column??
Ham Cam Newton seems to be doing everything the right way right now. And even if some of it is shtick, it’s hard to argue its benefit for “The Shield”. Hollywood is making movies about concussions, players are still being suspected of beating women and Tom Brady is still on trial for nothing; where would the NFL be if Cam weren’t there to grab the torch from Peyton Manning?
He’s fun, he’s charismatic, he likes kids, he’s black but not threatening to white people, and now he’s winning football games? Cam Newton is the total package. But if he wants to learn how to sustain that impenetrable aura he walks around with today, in a world where they only build you up to tear you down, he need not look any further than the OG on the opposing sideline.
Anthony’s Super Bowl Winner: Carolina Panthers
Kenneth’s Super Bowl Winner: Denver Broncos