A week from now, the NCAA basketball conference tournaments will be winding down and Selection Sunday will be staring us in the face. And of course, the next day will be consumed by universal slacking off and extreme water-coolery, as every office in America will be working diligently on their March Madness pools…as they should be.
“What?! Do I have the spreadsheets for this afternoon’s presentation? No, Bob! Now beat it! Can’t you see I’m trying to pick a 5-12 upset here?? God!”
The NCAA Tournament is the one event that can turn any Frank Grimes into a Larry Burns overnight (Simpsons fans will enjoy that reference). Unlike the Women’s Tournament, where it’s a virtual lock UConn will run the table and win everything (and even if they don’t, the usual suspects will be there to dethrone them, i.e. Tennessee, Stanford, Notre Dame etc.), the NCAA Men’s Tournament is a complete mystery…
And anybody that tells you different is full of shit. Thoroughly.
In the last decade we’ve seen the George Masons, Butlers and Wichita States of the world reach the Final Four, only to come up short. But if there were ever a year for the unknown to breakthrough and WIN the NCAA Tournament, it would be 2014. College basketball is flooded with star-power this season, but absent a dominant team. The benefits and drawbacks of this could be debated for days— an overall more competitive field breeds more “madness”, yet deep down, perhaps we all yearn for those traditional powerhouse programs to rule our brackets like kings. Word to Colin Cowherd.
Never before though has the crown appeared this attainable for the entire field. In 2013, HHSR launched a (feeble) attempt at picking a national champion in a fairly wide-open year. The pick was Kansas, and while I stand by the formula (dynamic wing scorer, size with shot blocking and upperclassmen leadership), it was Rick Pitino’s Louisville Cardinals that turned these winning characteristics into a championship recipe. While Russ Smith returned for a shot at a repeat, the Cardinals lost the shot blocking of Gorgui Dieng and leadership of Peyton Siva.
Sidebar: I’m still not over the way Elijah Johnson and Kansas gave away the game against Michigan in the final seconds. The Jayhawks were the better team for 38 minutes and 30 seconds of that game. I refuse to accept the fact that they didn’t make the Final Four last year. I’m gonna need the Henny on deck to watch this tournament again.
Louisville has spent parts of the season ranked in the top 10, but has also dipped as low as the mid-teens at various points during the year. As for who’s been #1? Michigan State, Syracuse, Kentucky, Arizona and Florida have all had their turn at the top and a slew of squads have hung around the top 5 all season, some of which — like Ohio State — aren’t even ranked anymore. And the resurgence of the North Carolina Tar Heels who have risen from the ashes to a potential top 10 team at the end of the year further highlights the capriciousness of this college basketball season.
Sidebar: After a loss on Saturday, former #1 now #25 Kentucky also may be unranked going into their conference tournament.
It is for this reason HHSR has avoided any bold predictions regarding college basketball this season. The only thing that can be said with conviction is this tournament is anybody’s ballgame. I’ve wavered on whether or not I’d even complete a bracket (emphasis on “A bracket”, real fans only do one) because I know an exercise in futility when I see one. Ultimately, I’m sure I will. Not because I’ll come to any epiphanies within the next week, I’m just very, very weak.
This season had all the makings of a special one back in October. College hoops had not seen this caliber of highly-touted players in years, and fans were eager to get their first glimpse at the a season overflowing with NBA talent. As mentioned in our reasons why the NBA sucks column, Jabari Parker, Joel Embiid, Andrew Wiggins, Julius Randle, Marcus Smart and the rest of this young crop of stars have not always performed up to their capabilities, and mirrors the inconsistent performances of Duke, Kansas, Kentucky, Oklahoma State and each of the other college hoop superpowers.
Not three weeks ago, Syracuse was undefeated and had its sights set on a #1 overall seed in the tournament. Since then, the Orange have taken an L in four of their last five contests (they clung to their lone W, narrowly escaping with a two point victory), the talk of them even grabbing any of the four #1 seeds has subsided and head coach Jim Boeheim’s face nearly melted off in a loss at Duke.
While the elite would normally be finishing the season strong as they gear up for their conference and NCAA tournaments, we’ve seen the exact opposite from the “top teams” of 2014. Five of the top eight teams in the country have lost this week (Arizona, Duke, Kansas, Syracuse and Virginia earlier this afternoon). At this point, it wouldn’t be a shock to see any high-ranked team lose in their conference tournament.
Hailing from a mid-major conference, it’s the Wichita State Shockers that are ironically the “Goliath” from this year’s field. Currently ranked second in the nation, Gregg Marshall’s team had a perfect 31-0 record as they enter conference tournament play (33-0 as of right now). The problem is they haven’t faced one ranked team all season! Their strength of schedule is 113th in the country! So despite the fact that they made the Final Four in 2013, how much can this year’s squad be trusted? This is truly the crap shoot to end all crap shoots.
Sidebar: The Shockers did beat Saint Louis, currently ranked 17th, back in December, but they’ve lost their last three games. So how good are they really?
Obviously, the conference tournaments and the regional layout will go a long way in deciding the winner, but in a season where absolutely nothing has been guaranteed, and the privileged play the paupers on almost a nightly basis, it may be best just to stick with the coaches you trust (Tom Izzo, this means you), if you’re a gambling man.
But why gamble? You’re going to lose. Just like me and everyone else. The sooner you accept it, the more fun this will all be.
So do what I plan on doing. Fill out a bracket, swallow your pride, kick back and watch the madness unfold. And when your bracket falls apart after the first weekend, do not take a machete to it. The more you treat the the 2014 NCAA Tournament like you’re playing Powerball, the better off you’ll be.