Russell Westbrook was traded to the Houston Rockets last week in exchange for Chris Paul, two first round picks and two pick swaps. The move is one of pure desperation by the Rockets, a team that never seems to have a plan outside of “assemble the best fantasy basketball team by any means necessary”, and is one of admiration by the Thunder, understanding the end of an era is upon them and thus reloading like John Rambo.
In the coming days, everyone will weigh in with their opinions of the deal, most likely praising Houston for their gumption and acquiring a more productive/younger player for the short term. And while Chris Paul is not washed, contrary to popular belief, OKC certainly was staring down the barrel of their own mortality the moment Paul George asked to be dealt to the L.A. Clippers.
Many things can be true about the Thunder and Rockets at this juncture. It’s conceivable that with his former teammate by his side, Harden and the rest of the Rockets benefit from Russ’ talent, and perhaps more importantly, his availability, en route to a Finals run in a wide open Western Conference in 2020. It’s also conceivable that, free from the vice grip Harden had on the ball and the analytic-happy offense in Houston, CP3 can get back to his normal screen-roll game of excellence, picking his mid-range spots and dominating the ball late in games as he leads a flawed, but not necessarily talent-less, Thunder team to the playoffs.
The point: We don’t know what’s going to happen. And we won’t for at least another year, or two.
Maybe Houston wins a championship, making the deal absolutely justifiable. Maybe the Thunder are interesting for awhile, then decide to trade Paul (or trade him immediately) for additional assets as they continue a rebuild that would make Sam Hinkie swoon.
That brings us to August 23, 2017, the day the Cleveland Cavaliers traded disgruntled star Kyrie Irving to the Boston Celtics for Isaiah Thomas, Jae Crowder, Ante Zizic, Brooklyn’s 2018 unprotected first-round pick and a 2020 second-round pick (via Miami).
In the moment, it was assumed Thomas’ hip would only keep him out until December or January, even after his physical reveled it was more damaged than originally assumed. Meaning the Cavs were getting a top-five MVP candidate from the year before, along with a pick assumed to be in the top 3 (as the Nets started Jeremy Lin and Timofey Mozgov on opening night). As the season unfolded though, some unexpected things happened:
- Isaiah Thomas’ hip was never the same. The Cavs rushed him back and he failed to ever mesh with LeBron James, the man we all believed could make it work with anyone.
- Following the death of his mother, Jae Crowder never lived up to expectations. Billed as a solid two-way player on a cheap contract, he quickly became just a player on a cheap contract.
- The entire bottom half of the league engaged in a mega tank-a-thon. Meanwhile, the Nets (with no reason to tank because they didn’t own their pick) began to blossom and ended up winning more games than expected. The picked landed at the eight spot in a not-so-special draft.
On the flip side, Kyrie was still Kyrie—a 25-year-old superstar with championship pedigree and two years left on his contract. He averaged 24 points five assists in his first year on the second-best team in the East. The deal looked like a Tyson fight in 1988, with the Danny Ainge donning the all black attire of Iron Mike. And once again, prevailing wisdom suggested Cavs owner Dan Gilbert was an incompetent egomaniac and Cleveland’s front office were bumbling idiots incapable of making shrewd decisions with or without LeBron James.
But then, more time passed and a few more unexpected things, and a couple of expected things, happened:
- Kyrie Irving’s bothersome left knee flared up, causing him to miss the entire 2018 playoffs.
- Gordon Hayward, injured on opening night of the 2017-18 season, was never able to find his groove upon his return. Congruently, the young Celtics who received a massive uptick in playing time while Irving & Hayward were sidelined began to shine in 2018, causing a logjam for playing time and a rift in the locker room in 2019.
- The Cavaliers became desperate to make a move to try and salvage their 2017-18 season and prevent LeBron from leaving a second time. They would trade some of the pieces they received in exchange for Uncle Drew (IT & Crowder) for players that would eventually help the Cleveland capture their fourth consecutive Eastern Conference championship…at the expense of the Celtics.
- Now entering the last year of his deal, Irving displayed erratic behavior his entire second season in Boston, leaving few confident that he’d re-up with the green team.
- Irving played at an All-NBA level in 2018-19, but the damage he did behind the scenes at best torpedoed the Celtics’ season and at worst stunted the long term growth of their young studs.
- The Cavs used the eighth pick of the 2018 draft on Collin Sexton, who showed tremendous promise after a rocky start. For the season, Sexton was third among all rookies in scoring average, shot 41% on threes, and after the All-Star break (24 games), averaged 20.9 points on 48% shooting.
- Irving sputtered in the 2019 conference semifinals averaging just 20.4 points on 35% shooting and 23% shooting from three in a five-game loss to Milwaukee.
When the 2019 free agency circus opened on June 30, Irving did what many expected, fleeing Boston for Brooklyn. The Celtics received zero compensation for his departure.
Koby Altman and Dan Gilbert count the number of critics who incorrectly thought they lost the Kyrie trade.
As the smoke clears on this Boston/Cleveland deal from 23 months ago, we’re left with information that can provide us with a far more accurate evaluation. The only asset Boston received in the deal was Irving. In two seasons, Kyrie ended year one on the sideline and year two in a horrific shooting funk. Ainge made the deal thinking Irving would propel the Celtics to the NBA Finals, only to see his team regress in his star’s two seasons on the job. Boston’s return on investment is officially closed on this deal; Cleveland’s return is only just beginning.
The Cavs could’ve kept Irving (by far the single greatest asset connected to this deal) but it was clear his relationship with James had severely deteriorated. And with Irving’s knee shutting him down for the 2018 playoffs, it’s quite possible Cleveland doesn’t make it back to the Finals had they kept him.
Sidebar: Funny how the Cavs were trashed for not realizing the severity of IT’s hip, but were never credited for realizing the severity of Kyrie’s degenerative knee.
In addition to flipping players they received from Irving for guys that helped them raise another conference championship banner, Cavs GM Koby Altman used some of those residual assets to accumulate even more assets, and so on. All told, here’s what the Cavaliers currently have acquired as a result of moving Irving (with help from SB Nation’s Kristian Winfield):
- Collin Sexton
- Larry Nance Jr.
- Jordan Clarkson
- John Henson
- Kevin Porter Jr. (Milwaukee’s 2019 first-round pick via Detroit; traded for package that included Utah’s 2020 second-round pick, and Portland’s 2021 and 2023 second-round picks)
- Dylan Windler (Houston’s 2019 first-round pick)
- Milwaukee’s 2021 first-round pick
- Matthew Dellavedova
- Brandon Knight
- Ante Zizic
- Marquese Chriss (free agent)
- Draft rights to Arturas Gudaitis
- Utah’s 2024 second-round pick
So yes, NBA Twitter is quick to tell you the Cavaliers are clowns and the Celtics are geniuses. And in Boston’s defense, taking a gamble on a perennial All-Star in his prime is a dice roll that most anyone would make. But knowing what we know two years later, the Cavaliers absolutely won this trade—front office narratives be dammed.
And here again, that’s the point. The Cavs/Celtics trade of Kyrie Irving serves as a case study for our sports media culture which thrives on instant reaction and hyperbole. It typically takes years to get an accurate read on trades, draft picks or just about any transaction. The anomaly is getting a definitive answer to “who won the trade” in the immediate aftermath (e.g. Toronto trading for Kawhi Leonard).
Ainge was fortunate Kemba Walker chose to play his prime years in Boston, so the Celtics managed to land on their feet. And maybe Cleveland didn’t “kill” the deal as Dan Gilbert suggested; maybe they did, we still don’t know. But as he astutely pointed out two months ago, “We could have ended up with nothing.”
Let’s keep this in mind when we evaluate the Westbrook for Paul deal, and anytime we play “grade the trade” down the road.