You knew this was coming. Honestly, I really didn’t want to, but the national media left me no choice.
If you follow HHSR on twitter, you’re welcome (kidding!). But also, you may have recently noticed a rant that railed against Peyton Manning’s MVP credentials. People who know me personally know I have been highly critical of Manning in the past, a fact that I have admitted to repeatedly. So let’s start here:
I did not believe the Denver Broncos would win the AFC West— needless to say, I got that pretty wrong. Peyton made anyone who questioned his health or ability at this advanced stage of his career (myself absolutely included) look incredibility foolish. He was awesome all year, led the Broncos to the #1 seed in the AFC playoffs and had arguably the second best statistical season of his career. Peyton Manning is a very deserving Most Valuable Player candidate for this NFL season.
The problem: So are several other guys— and they didn’t make their hay on the backs of a bunch of scrubs either.
This isn’t about being a hater. This article is all about facts. So why shouldn’t Peyton Manning win MVP?
1) Weak Schedule
In the HHSR AFC Preseason prediction column, one of the big knocks against the Broncos mentioned was the fact that their schedule was to be the most difficult in the division, and would therefore severely hinder their chances at making the playoffs. What we didn’t count on was how putrid the rest of the AFC West would turn out to be. The Chargers, Raiders and Chiefs finished with a combined record of 13-35 (.271 win percentage), by far the worst combined record of the non-division winning teams in the NFL. To put that in perspective, Denver alone won 13 games and the next worst divisions were the AFC East and AFC South; with the Jets, Bills & Dolphins and Colts, Titans & Jaguars each combining for 19-29 records (.396).
To take it a step further, the Broncos played only five games against teams that finished with a record above .500, and finished with a pedestrian 2-3 record in such games. However, the level of competition faced by other MVP candidates, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and Adrian Peterson, was the NFL equivalent of scaling Kilimanjaro by comparison.
Brady’s Patriots went 3-3 in games against teams above .500 on the year. The wins included a 28-point demolition of the Houston Texans, a 35-point obliteration of the Indianapolis AND a 10-point victory over Peyton’s Broncos, where the Pats at one juncture held a 31-7 lead. New England’s losses included one-point losses at Baltimore and at Seattle (yes, I do believe not all losses are created equal). Peterson & Rodgers, on the other hand, were forced to deal with the much deeper NFC. Both the Vikings and Packers faced NINE teams with records of .500 or better. Green Bay was 4-5 in these games and 11-5 overall, while AD led the Vikes to a 4-5 record against the big boys and ended with a 10-6 record.
Overall, the Broncos had the fourth-easiest schedule in the NFL. Of course, it isn’t Peyton’s fault how bad the teams on his slate turn out to be. His job is to go out and destroy whoever is in front of him, and he did just that in 2012. Manning shouldn’t be punished for this, but we do not have to reward him with another MVP for it either.
Sidebar: I say we, although I do not have an MVP vote…not yet anyway.
2) Lack of Statistical Dominance
In order to justify giving him this award (for a record extending fourth-and-a-half time) after eating up this marshmallow competition, Manning’s statistics would have to dwarf all others vying for the award. And while stellar, Peyton’s numbers just failed to deliver in this context.
His 105.8 passer rating was second in the league to Aaron Rodgers’ (108.0). His 68.6 completion percentage was also second– a fraction of a point behind Atlanta Falcon Matt Ryan. Peyton was sixth in both completions (400) and yards (4,659), although in his defense, his Broncos were typically winning comfortably over the JV teams on his schedule. Hence, he certainly sacrificed some in these areas, as his team was often running out the clock. His 37 touchdown passes were only third, behind Drew Brees (43) and Rodgers (39). Tom Brady threw for 34 TDs, but also ran for four more, bringing his total 38 (Manning had zero TD runs). Peyton also completed passes to the defense 11 times (Rodgers & Brady were each intercepted only eight times) and lost two fumbles.
Sidebar: As long as we’re keeping track of rushing TDs, Aaron Rodgers had two of those, which makes for a total of 41, and while you’re at it, you can throw in his 259 rushing yards.
Long story short, not only did Peyton Manning fail to blow away his competitors statistically, something he almost always did in his previous MVP runs, he didn’t even lead the NFL in any of the major categories by which quarterbacks are measured.
3) Faced Little Adversity
Manning’s boys definitely had to overcome their lack of familiarity with one another early in the season. Peyton was of course coming into a brand new environment for the first time since Indianapolis made him the #1 overall pick in 1998. There’s always going to be an adjustment period, just ask the Los Angeles Lakers.
Peyton’s play-calling at the line of scrimmage and his timing with his receivers definitely developed over the course of the year. He also lost his starting running back, Willis McGahee, midway through the year to a knee injury. Yet this was basically the only real adversity the Broncos had to overcome in 2012. Adrian Peterson never had much of a passing game to keep defenders honest in the first place, but his supporting cast really took a hit when Percy Harvin landed on IR after Week 9. Brady was without two of his favorite targets for long stretches of the season (Rob Gronkowski missed five games, Aaron Hernandez sat out six contests). Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers lost his starting running back for the season in Week 5 and was without one of his top two receivers for a combined 12 games.
Speaking of supporting casts, the Packers didn’t have much of one up front either. Green Bay’s offensive line was garbage, allowing the second most sacks in the NFL this year (51), while Peyton’s Broncos did an exceptional job protecting their franchise QB, allowing only 21 sacks, second fewest in the league.
4) More Help on Defense Than Other Candidates
Anyone who has ever been involved in or witnessed a Brady vs. Manning debate has undoubtedly heard the following argument:
“The reason Brady kept beating Manning in the early years was because the Pats had an amazing defense and Belichick! He’s a defensive mastermind! Peyton’s defenses always sucked! He had to carry the team!”
Few quarterbacks had more help defensively in 2012 than Peyton Manning. Of the league’s 32 teams, Denver’s D finished fourth in fewest points allowed and second in total defense (or offensive yards allowed). Peterson’s Vikings were tied for 14th in points allowed and finished 16th in total defense. The Packers were 11th in both categories and the Patriots were tied for ninth in points allowed and finished 25th in total defense.
All this supports the fact that the Denver Broncos were a pretty good football team before Peyton Manning ever got there. Record-wise, they were only 8-8 in 2011. Still, they won their division, hosted a home playoff game and defeated a pretty good Steelers team in the first round, with one of the least accurate quarterbacks in NFL history running the show.
Remember this???
Many fans and media members want to give Manning a disproportionate amount of credit for the Broncos’ success. Sure, they are a legitimate Super Bowl contender with #18 in the backfield, but it isn’t as if he took his new team from the depths of despair to the playoffs (like his replacement in Indy did).
When you measure Peyton Manning’s season against those of Rodgers, Brady & Peterson, you cannot simply give the nod to Peyton because his team had a better record. If you were, you’d have to consider Matt Ryan for the award because he also guided his team to a 13-3 record (in a tougher division & conference). However, Ryan appears to be absent from every Most Valuable Player conversation.
Who Should Win MVP?
Ballots were due today from media members around the country for postseason voting.
In spite of a shaky defense and injuries to his tight ends, Tom Brady was the conductor behind the team that scored the third most points in NFL history. The 12-4 Patriots also tied for the fourth most touchdowns by a team in league history and shattered the record for most first downs in a season this year with 444 (the previous record was 416 by the ’11 Saints). Despite leading a historic offense against tougher competition, this apparently isn’t enough to place him ahead of Manning on most people’s lists.
After overcoming a 2-3 start, Rodgers led his Packers to wins in 9 of their next 10 contests, with the only loss during that stretch coming on the road against the New York Giants. With a crippled collection of skill position players and an offensive line that just played like they were, it’s a miracle that the Pack were able to finish 11-5 and atop a division that saw two other teams win at least 10 games.
AD’s teammates carried him off the field. If that’s not an MVP, I’m not sure what is.
You can split hairs on the qualifications of Rodgers, Brady and even Manning. All three were great, but no man separated himself from the pack quite like Adrian Peterson.
Already having a very good season after tearing two knee ligaments less than a year prior, AD went ape shit after Week 6. He rushed for 1,598 yards and scored 11 total touchdowns in the final 10 games of the season! Peterson ran for over 1,000 yards this year…AFTER CONTACT! He ran for nearly 500 more yards than the next highest back and he did it facing defenses that KNEW he was getting the rock all the time.
And when his team needed him most, Peterson delivered. He ran for 651 yards and scored four TDs in the final four games of the season, DRAGGING his team to four consecutive victories against four teams with a combined record of 40-23-1 (check out his five-game month of December). The win streak propelled the Vikes into the playoffs and Peterson concluded his epic season with 2,097 rushing yards, falling just 27 feet away from breaking the NFL single-season rushing record.
To call Adrian Peterson’s 2012 season “dynamic” would be a gross understatement. To call it a “transcendent performance at the running back position” would be far more accurate. Considering his second-year quarterback Christian Ponder THREW for 2,935 yards and 18 TDs by comparison, it’s obvious that Peterson’s performance this year was the essence of a player being the Most Valuable to his team.
Peyton Manning can’t say that. His season did not only fall short of AD’s, it falls short of both Rodgers and Brady as well when you factor in strength of schedule, injuries, supporting cast performance and statistics.
So let’s stop giving this guy more credit than he deserves. Pro Bowl? Fine. All-Pro? Sure. But MOST Valuable Player (again)?!?!
Not this year, Peyton.