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HHSR is proud to say this is the fourth year we’ve done a series of NFL playoff pick columns (we still here!!!)— this is the most difficult Wildcard Round to predict to date. After going 4-0 on picks in 2013, 2-2 in 2014 and 3-1 last year, finishing above .500 on these four games will be our greatest Wildcard accomplishment to date. What we have here are four higher seeded road teams that are favored to win this weekend (the Green Bay/Washington game has moved back and forth— while the Packers are generally the more popular team, everybody seems to be on the Redskins heading into the weekend).

Let’s be clear: this will NOT happen.

If all four road teams win (and cover), I’ll have to seriously evaluate what I know about football. Home underdogs cover nearly half the time in the NFL, and the lines of each of these games as of now are four points or less, meaning these games should be close. The electricity of a home crowd in a playoff game, coupled with the “us against the world” mentality that it creates, fuels underdogs to cover and often win games just like these.

Chances are, two of these road favorites will fall, but which ones? Let’s see what we can figure out.

Kansas City Chiefs (5) at Houston Texans (4)

Did you know the Chiefs last playoff victory was 23 years ago…in Houston? Wild, right? For all the talk about the Steelers and Seahawks being the teams “nobody wants to play”, KC is the hottest team in the NFL. Winners of 10 straight, the Chefs (great googly moogly!) have been somewhat disrespected as fans and media have overlooked their run to ordain Pittsburgh as the AFC’s most dangerous team. In typical Chief fashion, KC is forcing more turnovers than just about any other team, while being extremely cautious with the football themselves. If there’s a reason to question them though, it’s that eight of the Chiefs 10 consecutive wins came against non-playoff teams. Also, Andy Reid coached teams have this tendency to self-destruct in playoff games at the drop of a hat. It’s never a matter of “if’, only a matter of “when”.

After getting annihilated by the Dolphins midseason, the underdog Texans won seven of their next nine. They’re also playing at home, and still have the best defensive player in the world on their team. However, Brian Hoyer is their quarterback— Hoyer is far more likely to commit that self-inflicted deathblow turnover than Kansas City’s Alex Smith (expect a Hoyer pick six on Saturday).

Houston is actually built similarly to the Chiefs, but the Chiefs are the more enhanced model. Houston’s defense is good, but KC’s is better (and pass rusher extraordinaire Justin Houston is returning from injury). Both teams lost their star tailbacks, but KC’s run game has sustained better than H-Town’s. DeAndre Hopkins is a little more dynamic than Jeremy Maclin, but Smith is a more polished QB than Hoyer. And the Chiefs clobbered the Texans in Houston Week 1 this year.

We had the Chiefs as a preseason dark horse in the AFC (winning the AFC West in fact, which they nearly did); there’s no need to stray away from them at this point.

Pittsburgh Steelers (6) at Cincinnati Bengals (3)

In our Hot 16 Midseason Report, I led off by saying the Bengals would win a playoff game, in part because I saw them playing a limited team like Houston in round one. That theory seemed a lot more solid in my head then, but here come the Steelers rolling into Paul Brown Stadium Saturday night.

As we know, “NOBODY WANTS TO PLAY THE STEELERS”. The talking heads have made that quite clear. I’m not buying it.

Pittsburgh only made the playoff field because the Jets gagged their spot away last week.

Sidebar: So yeah, this Jets column looks pretty dumb now, just like I thought it might. Still, I stand by the analysis. The facts in the piece were solid, and if the Jets were in the field, I believe they’d be the biggest threat to the Patriots. Gotta charge this one to the game though.

In must-win and near must-win games to end the year, the Steelers looked pretty average in road games against a horrendous Browns team and a withered Ravens team, the latter of which they lost. It seems like people observe the aerial attack led by Ben Roethlisberger and the incomparable Antonio Brown and just assume the Steelers were throw it all over the lot against the Bengals.

This ain’t fantasy football.

Big Ben famously owns both Ohio teams in games played in Ohio, but did you know he only has five touchdowns to nine interceptions and just an 86.0 passer rating in road games this year? In two games against the Bengals this year, Ben has a 1:4 TD to INT ratio, with five sacks and a 70.7 passer rating. Need more stats? In 11 career games vs Cincinnati, Antonio Brown only has two 100-yard games and four touchdowns, with none of the four coming in Cincy. This is probably why Ben called out Martavius Bryant this week; they need other receivers to step up.

Yes, the Bengals haven’t won a playoff game since 1990. Yes, Marvin Lewis has lost a crap ton of playoff games, seemingly every year. And yes, Andy Dalton is out and backup AJ McCarron is under center for the Bengals, who threw a pick six against Pittsburgh in the game he relieved Dalton after he broke his thumb (a Steelers win).

But the Bengals are still the pick. They’ve been the more complete team since the beginning of the season. The Steelers rank 30th in the league in passing yards allowed and McCarron (who played in big games in college, and who recently compared himself to Tom Brady) has actually been pretty good. Furthermore, DeAngelo Willimas, who was low key one of the five best running backs this year, is out with an ankle injury.

The fact that everyone is on the Steelers seals the deal. Marvin Lewis finally wins a playoff game…sans Andy Dalton.

Seattle Seahawks (6) at Minnesota Vikings (3)

You know what was fun to see? Mike Zimmer getting his Vikings fired up to beat the Packers last week and win the NFC North, with full knowledge that their reward would be a date with the two-time defending NFC champion Seahawks. The “we’re not scared of anybody” message that sends to your team cannot be understated, plus Zimmer gets to look his team in the eye and call them division champions, and his team gets to host a playoff game outdoors (1º weather I believe is in store) for the first time since Bud Grant was on the sidelines.

For their football team, I loved it. As a football observer, I hated it. Sure, it’s fair to question Seattle right now even though hardly anybody is doing it.

But the Seahawks also have equity in the bank, more equity than any playoff team not named the New England Patriots. The Seahawks just obliterated the Vikings 38-7 in Minnesota like an hour ago. In that game, Teddy Bridgewater did nothing and Adrian Peterson did even less.

Meanwhile, Russell Wilson is humming along. He’s in the best stretch of his career, has made Doug Baldwin look like Jerry Rice, and he’s done it all without Marshawn Lynch, Lynch’s backup Thomas Rawls and Jimmy Graham. The good news for Seattle is Lynch, the Seahawks emotional leader, is on the road to recovery and should play.

I had the Vikings making the playoffs in the preseason, so I am a believer. But making the tournament was phase one of their growth development. Although I think this will be a closer game than most expect, Seattle should lean on their experience, and the fact that the cold weather shouldn’t hurt them too much, en route to another January victory. Minnesota just doesn’t have the playmakers to take advantage of a Seahawks defense that has slipped the past couple of years.

Green Bay Packers (5) at Washington Redskins (4)

This is the most challenging game of the weekend.

I was all ready to pick Washington in this game because, frankly the Packers have sucked for pretty much half the season. This absolutely includes Aaron Rodgers. He’s been a large part of the Packers problems.

But then, everybody started picking Washington…now I’m getting scared.

They’re dead ass serious in Washington.

Magically, Kirk Cousins morphed into Dan Marino in the middle of the season. So much so, the entire city has rallied around Cousins and his “You like that!” battle cry. But remember how we questioned that Chiefs run? All nine of the Redskins wins this year came against non-playoff teams. They actually only played two playoff teams, losing both games to the Panthers and Patriots by a combined score of 71-26 (they also got smacked by the Jets). The Packers on the other hand defeated the Vikings, Chiefs and Seahawks this season, and have a little playoff equity of their own.

It’s been eons since the Packers looked like a good football team, and there’s little reason to believe they’ll come to play on Sunday. But they are accustomed to this stage and Rodgers still has the capacity to ratchet it up once more on a big stage.

It’s not often you get the Packers playing in a winnable game where the general public is against them. I’ll take Green Bay in a narrow victory over a very game Washington team, while admittedly leaning a bit on blind faith.

Sidebar: After all, we did pick Green Bay to win the Super Bowl preseason. Now might also be a good time for me to move off that preseason NFC pick. The Packers clearly don’t have the look of a Super Bowl team, but my dark horse Arizona Cardinals do. The pre-postseason pick has formally been changed— the Cardinals and Patriots meet in Super Bowl 50.

HHSR staffers Anthony Hueston and Kenneth Hicks each have the same four teams winning this weekend. A 4-0 week on picks would yield Bengals at Patriots and Chiefs at Broncos AFC matchups, and Packers at Cardinals and Seahawks at Panthers NFC Divisional Round tilts, each of which seems right.

It’s a zigzag league. Too many people are on the Chiefs, Steelers, Seahawks and Redskins. Two of them are going down, unless too many people are on the zigzag trail. Then, we’re all screwed, which is quite possible.