We roll into the 2023 NFL playoffs with a 74-36 (.671) all-time record picking playoff games. Needless to say, this is HHSR’s time to shine! But what exactly makes a playoff winner?
Here are the top six reasons why we see six of these teams advancing to the Divisional Round.
#7 Seattle Seahawks at #2 San Francisco 49ers (-9.5)
Reason 6: The “It” Factor
It was at this exact moment in his first start that we realized Brock Purdy had “it”. This kid might not have a gold jacket in his future and he may not be an All-Pro someday, but Purdy has what it takes to lead this 49ers team (with confidence!) on another deep playoff run (Kyle Shanahan might just be a genius). Moreover, he should return next season as the Niners’ starting QB. Meanwhile, Seattle’s season was saved by playing Mike White and Baker Mayfield in back-to-back games to close their schedule. Their run of good fortune is just about over. And it doesn’t hurt the Niners that one of Purdy’s victories came at Seattle in a contest where Purdy outplayed Geno Smith.
Sidebar: He was just “Geno Smith” that day. When he balls out, he’s “West Virginia Geno”!
The Seahawks are a great story, but their biggest victory already came as they watched Russel Wilson crash and burn and crash and burn some more in Denver. Now they’re a playoff team AND the proud owners of the fifth pick of the Draft. That’s good enough.
Seattle may keep it close for a half, but arguably most complete team in football eventually pulls away and covers.
#5 Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) at #4 Jacksonville Jaguars
Reason 5: Dumb Luck
This is a matchup between two young quarterbacks on the ascent making their first playoff starts. Trevor Lawrence is not stranger to big spots however, and the Jags are champions of the mighty AFC South (*tries to keep straight face*). Trouble is, this is a team that’s okay at everything, but exceptional at nothing. Their #1 overall pick Travon Walker was basically invisible all season. The Chargers seemed like they could never get their full compliment of players on the field, which will extend into this weekend now that Mike Williams can’t go and Joey Bosa is hurt.
This game is right down the line. Both teams finished the year strong against weaker competition. Jacksonville has better wins and won’t have to travel across country, but L.A. had to regularly face better in-division competition, meaning they’re probably more battle-tested.
We’ll give the slight edge to the Chargers just because we think they’re better (we picked them to go to the Super Bowl pre-season) and Lawrence has more convincing to do, but we’ll take Jacksonville to cover. No outcome would be a surprise though; the luckier team probably wins this game.
#7 Miami Dolphins at #2 Buffalo Bills (-13.5)
Reason 4: Heart
If Miami had any hopes of winning this game, they went out the window when Skylar Thompson was announced as their starting QB. Nothing against Skylar—he’s probably a fine young man. But he won’t be able to complete against that team from Upstate New York.
In Pulp Fiction, Samuel L. Jackson wouldn’t give Marcellus Wallace’s briefcase to the robber in the diner because, in his words, “I’ve been through too much shit over this case this morning to just hand it over to yo dumbass.” In this instance, the Bills are Sam Jackson, the briefcase with the shiny stuff inside is Buffalo’s Super Bowl dream and the overmatched robber is Skylar Thompson. Think of everything the Bills and the city of Buffalo has been through in the last 12 months—it’s quite shocking. This feels like it could, or should, be their moment.
Like the Niners, the Bills sputter early but cruise to a second half cover.
#6 New York Giants at #3 Minnesota Vikings (-3)
Reason 3: Rejecting the Popular Narrative
When they met on Christmas Eve, it took a 61-yard field goal in the final minutes for Minnesota to pull it out. It was just a the latest example of the Vikings pulling out a narrow victory. Anyone who closely follows football is likely aware that there are few teams ever in the NFL with a record as good as the Vikings that appear as fraudulent as the Vikings.
Both teams have a clear ceiling. The Giants have overachieved this season, but also were 2-6 against playoff teams, went 2-5-1 in their last eight games and didn’t finish inside the top 14 in scoring offense or defense. Conversely, the Vikings offense has a 4,500 yard passer, an 1,800 yard receiver and an 1,100 yard rusher, and Minny won several close games to the point where it seems like it’s not an accident. All they’re missing is just a little respect.
Everybody is hip to Minnesota’s shortcomings and banking on them to fall flat in the playoffs, which means they’ll put together a good game on Sunday.
We’re avoiding this popular upset pick. Vikes advance and cover (a push here is very possible).
#6 Baltimore Ravens at #3 Cincinnati Bengals (-8.5)
Reason 2: Questionable Management
It doesn’t matter who is quarterbacking the Ravens this weekend. If the name “Lamar Demeatrice Jackson Jr.” isn’t involved, Baltimore doesn’t stand much of a chance.
This game has less to do with a Bengals squad that went from potential Super Bowl hangover team to the AFC’s darlings in four months and way more to do with the “injury” to Baltimore’s beleaguered former MVP. This week the Ravens made Roquan Smith — who has only been in Baltimore for a half an hour — the highest paid linebacker in NFL history. The fact that this deal was historic in its guarantees and total value, coupled with Smith having negotiated the deal himself (Jackson has been famously represented by his mother in past contract talks) is the ultimate insult to Lamar’s injury. This felt like part front office move, part PR move to make Lamar look unreasonable in his demands.
This marriage is over. It’s very possible Lamar has already taken his last snap ever as a Raven. And even if he’s franchise tagged and brought back, Lamar probably won’t want to further risk injury as an uber-mobile QB for a team that just spit in his face. If they were ever going to give Lamar the bag he’s looking for, they would’ve done it already.
Must be nice to be the Bengals; Cincy covers the spread.
#5 Dallas Cowboys (-2.5) at #4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Reason 1: Tom Brady
Speaking of marriages being over, just when we thought we’d never see Tom Brady on the field for another playoff game, here he is. At 45, Brady is coming off one of the worst statistical seasons of his career. It’s clear he wasn’t his best self, but it didn’t help that the Bucs run game was one of the worst we’ve ever seen (finishing dead last in rush attempts, yards, yards per carry, rushing TDs and they didn’t have run over 35 yards—only one other team this year can say that). Tampa’s defense has also been shaky this year and the thought of Donovan Smith getting flagged for holding Micah Parsons 17 times on Monday night isn’t great either. Basically anything the Bucs do this January will fall almost exclusively on Brady.
Landing top five in points scored and fewest points allowed, the Cowboys are undoubtedly the better football team, despite the Bucs beating them 19-3 in Dallas Week 1. But as we’ve seen so many times before, you kinda gotta throw logic out when Tom Brady is involved in a playoff game. And think of this: the Cowboys (who always find a way to lose these type of games) are on the road and coached by Mike McCarthy (who is known to make a boneheaded decision or two) and are going against a quarterback who always saves his best football for when he’s counted out. The idea of getting Tom Brady as a home underdog in a playoff game is too tantalizing to pass up.
Confusingly, the Bucs win.