For whatever reason, this playoff season doesn’t feel quite as wide open as it has in years past. We know the two first round bye teams are in the mix, while the two #2 seeds have a legitimate shot at hoisting the Lombardi Trophy.
Yeah, that’s it. Four teams can win this thing. If it’s anyone outside of the top two seeds from either conference, we’ll buy you a round. HHSR typically has a good feel for these things—peep our record at picking NFL playoff games:
- 34-22 (.607) on Wildcard Weekend
- 35-13 (.729) on Divisional Round Weekend
- 12-12 (.500) in Conference Championships
- 7-5 (.583) in Super Bowls
- 88-52 (.629) All-Time
So who advances from Wildcard Weekend and why? Let’s get into it via a six-word story for each matchup. Don’t worry, this won’t take long—we’ve got games to watch!
#5 Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at #4 Houston Texans
Six-Word Story: Harbaugh is real. Houston is unimpressive.
Last year the Texans were a #4 seeded home underdog playing in the first playoff game and won convincingly (thank you, Cleveland *eye roll*). They’re in the exact same spot this year, but doing it again would mean they’d have to be much better than they’ve been of late. CJ Stroud seems to have regressed; perhaps his fall off has more to do with his MASH unit of a receiving corp than him forgetting how to play quarterback. But the truth is, Houston splurged in the offseason and answered their big boy expectations with little boy performance. Frankly, they wouldn’t be here if not for winning a garbage division.
Meanwhile Jim Harbaugh, who has won everywhere he’s coached, has turned around the Chargers in one season. They’re tough, physical and won’t lose this game unless Justin Herbert manages to throw two pick-sixes in the game. But that’s impossible, right?
Chargers win by four.
#6 Pittsburgh Steelers at #3 Baltimore Ravens (-9.5)
Six-Word Story: Steelers were exposed for being frauds.
In August, everyone looked at the Steelers’ scheduled and said their true test would come at the end of the season. Well, Pittsburgh hasn’t won a football game in over a month, averaging under 15 points per contest. The only thing the Steelers can hang their hat on is the fact that they play Baltimore often. They won’t be afraid of Lamar Jackson, but that alone won’t be enough.
Pittsburgh hangs around for awhile, but Lamar throws the cape on a couple times late and eliminates the Steelers by 10+, despite Zay Flowers being sidelined.
#7 Denver Broncos at #2 Buffalo Bills (-8.5)
Six-Word Story: The real MVP will stand up.
Every year, anywhere from four to seven new teams enter the playoff picture. And for at least one of those teams, just making it this far was their Super Bowl.
Denver has done extremely well for themselves. Year one of the Bo Nix era has been a roaring success (after Sean Payton essentially shoved Russell Wilson in front of a train). That said, they really only made the postseason because the Chiefs decided to slam the door on the Cincinnati Bengals by benching their starters at Denver in Week 18. As impressive as the Broncos defense has been, you should still be able to bank on Josh Allen doing Josh Allen things.
Many are advocating for Lamar Jackson to win his third league MVP on the strength of his superior stats. What this doesn’t account for (aside from Allen sitting out Week 18) is Lamar’s Ravens looking up at Allen’s Bills in the AFC standings all year. Even with the head-to-head defeat to Jackson, Josh Allen led Buffalo to wins over both the Chiefs AND Lions, without playing with a skill player remotely close that of Derrick Henry (James Cook is good, but c’mon).
Bills win but don’t cover…because all the favorites can’t cover.
#7 Green Bay Packers at #2 Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5)
Six-Word Story: Philly is the best all around.
At least by the numbers…in the NFC. Though they didn’t record 70 sacks like the did two years ago, the Eagles elite secondary forces turnovers on defense and their reliable offense allows the electric Saquon Barkley do the heavy lifting. They can run it, throw it, win in the trenches, turn you over—there isn’t much to dislike about this team. Jalen Hurts’ concussion isn’t ideal, but it’s offset by Jordan Love’s elbow injury. The Packers are banged up and could make more noise if not for getting a bad draw in round one.
Expect Green Bay to cover but fall short in Philadelphia.
#6 Washington Commanders at #3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)
Six-Word Story: Jayden, one step at a time.
We’re gonna lock this one down as the best game of the weekend! What makes this game scary? All of the money is coming in on Washington—we all know what that means.
This author is no stranger to trashing Baker Mayfield, but Baker has shed his trademark inconsistency for most of this season. And while he’s still not the quarterback many think he is, he’s had a career year and is no stranger to this stage. Meanwhile, Jayden Daniels has been awesome in his own right. But he’ll likely have to get adjusted to playoff football (unless he tucks it an runs for 200 yards).
The most telling stat between these two teams though? Record against playoff teams:
- Tampa Bay: 4-3 (including a W against Washington and an OT loss at Kansas City)
- Washington: 1-4 (their lone win coming against the Eagles, who lost Jalen Hurts and still led for the entire game until the closing seconds)
You have to take the Commanders and the points, but Tampa rolls on.
#5 Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) at #4 Los Angeles Rams
Six-Word Story: Put some respect on Minny’s name.
The Vikings lost a showdown in Detroit in the last regular season game of the season, subsequently lost the #1 seed, lost home field, fell to the #5 spot and packed their bags for the West Coast. Now all of a sudden it seems like the sexy play is to take the home dog Rams.
This isn’t the Minnesota playoff team from two years ago though. This team finished 14-3 and the game will be played at a neutral site due to the Palisades wildfires. The exploits of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua should be matched, if not exceeded by Jordan Addison and Justin “J Jettas” Jefferson. Top 10 in scoring offense and defense, the Vikings appear to be legit.
It seems hard to believe the Rams would make a deeper playoff run in their first year post-Aaron Donald. Take the Rams and the points, but the Vikes advance.
Overall, things are looking pretty chalky over here. As for the Super Bowl, we started the year saying the Kansas City Chiefs couldn’t possibly be this lucky again…they proceeded to peel off one of the more impressive luck streaks in NFL history. In all seriousness, if the question is KC versus the field, the pick is still the field because winning three straight Super Bowls just seems impossible. Something will go wrong eventually. But if you’re picking which team will win it all, how do you arrive at any other conclusion besides Kansas City?
The playoffs might be more predictable than usual this year, but try to act surprised.