We know this much: Brandon Weeden and Ryan Tannihill will not win Super Bowl XLVII.
In recent years, however, we’ve seen a slew of young signal-callers guide their teams to the playoffs. Several years ago, it was Joe Flacco & Mark Sanchez (seems like ages ago). Last year, we saw “The Red Rifle” Andy Dalton navigate Cincy to the postseason. This year, a triumvirate of quarterbacks have put their teams into position to contend for a Super Bowl trip this January. But do Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III and Russell Wilson have what it takes to actually take their team to the promised land?
History suggests not.
No rookie starting quarterback has ever led his team to a Super Bowl championship and only a handful have done it in their second full season (Brady, Roethlisberger, Warner). But around the league, more and more teams are investing high draft picks in quarterbacks and playing them immediately, rather than the archaic method of drafting a player, then letting him “develop” for two years while holding a clipboard. Aaron Rodgers is probably the last product of that school of thought we’ll see for a long time.
With teams not hesitating to turn the keys to the franchise over to first-year field generals and with head coaches being fired at break-neck speed each year, the amount of rookie quarterbacks asked to take their team to a championship will undoubtedly increase. And sooner or later, somebody will break through and pull it off.
While Wilson, Luck & Griffin all possess an incredibly valid argument for winning the Rookie of the Year award, each would be hard pressed to even make the Super Bowl this year.
Sidebar: In a year where we are seeing crazy competitive races for both Comeback Player of the Year AND Most Valuable Player, we can’t sleep on the race for 2012’s top rookie, either. In addition to these three quarterbacks, there’s been many other impressive guys like Alfred Morris, T.Y. Hilton, Trent Richardson, Chandler Jones, Bobby Wagner, Luke Kuechly, Vontaze Burfict, Greg Zuerlein, Blair Walsh, Morris Claiborne, Justin Blackmon and Doug Martin, to name a few. This was truly a great year for rookies.
After this weekend, at least one rook will still be alive and at least one will be at the crib, since Griffin’s Redskins are hosting Wilson’s Seahawks on Sunday. We’ll begin with this game:
NFC Wildcard- Seattle Seahawks at Washington Redskins
The most interesting part about this matchup is that these two offenses are almost identical. Both are extremely efficient at using the read-option and their mobile quarterbacks have frustrated defensive coordinators and edge rushers equally, all season long. Both have also used a stout offensive line and a power running game to successfully dominate the time of possession, minimize turnovers and manage their young quarterback’s responsibilities. Seattle’s Marshawn Lynch ran for 1,590 yards this season, which was third in the league, trailing only Adrian Peterson and Washington’s Alfred Morris (1,613).
With that said, the difference between these two squads are the defenses. Washington’s defense was decent against the run, but struggled to stop the pass all year and will be facing a red hot Russell Wilson on Sunday. In the last eight games of the season, Wilson led Seattle to a 7-1 record and torched the opposition for 16 touchdowns, with only two interceptions.
Seattle’s defense allowed the fewest points of any team this year and RG3 didn’t look healthy at all last week. The Seahawks should win this game, despite playing in a hostile environment.
Don’t be shocked if you see a bit of this Saturday night.
NFC Wildcard- Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers
Peterson is our choice for 2012’s Most Valuable Player. What he did in the last half of this season was the stuff of legend. As remarkable as it was to get his team to the playoffs, it will be close to impossible for his team to make a deep run in it.
That’s not to say the Vikings cannot beat the Packers— they did it just six days ago. But Christian Ponder, at some point, will be FORCED to make some difficult throws in this game, with Clay Matthews barreling down on him and Charles Woodson lurking in the secondary (Woodson is coming back from injury and did not play last week against Minnesota). On the whole, the Pack have been getting healthier and they may have found a run game with DuJuan Harris in the backfield.
Ultimately the Packers sub-par offensive line will likely be their undoing, but unless the Vikings generate a consistent pass rush, Rodgers will pick them apart. This game should be closer than most expect, division games usually are and this is the third meeting between the Packers & Vikings, but Green Bay has the experienced quarterback and a home field advantage that should be enough to vanquish the incomparable Adrian Peterson.
AFC Wildcard- Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans
Seems like the very moment HHSR dubbed the Houston Texans as being “totally capable of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy“, they’ve completely hit the toilet. Their defense is banged up, they lost three of their last four games entering the playoffs and Arian Foster has all but vanished from the offense. But all three losses were against playoff teams and the Texans can now lean on the experience of having made the second round of the postseason last year.
They face the same Bengals team they dispatched in 2011’s wildcard round on Saturday afternoon. In that game, Foster rumbled for 153 yards and 2 TDs and Andy Dalton was picked off three times. The Bengals were third in the NFL in sacks this season, but Houston tied for the seventh fewest sacks allowed this year. Cincinnati is good, but only beat two playoff teams all season. Their offense is also one-dimensional; if you can take A.J. Green out of the game (admittedly, this is asking a lot), there is much left to deal with.
AFC Wildcard- Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens
There seems to be a growing number of people who believe that either the Bengals will upset the Texans AND or the Colts will upset the Ravens. It makes sense: both home teams backpedaled into the playoffs like Revis, while the Colts & Bengals are young, hungry and are currently riding a wave of positive momentum (#Chuckstrong). This leads us to one conclusion:
One of these underdogs (Colts or the Bengals) will get KILLED this weekend. We often see competitive games during wildcard weekend, but we’ve definitely seen some blowouts as well. Too many people are jumping the Colts/Bengals bandwagon, and as a result, the more talented Ravens & Texans are now flying under the radar. One team will come out and dominate the visitor, the other will struggle…
Picking which game will yield which outcome, though, is an extremely difficult task (Here goes nothin!).
Despite the fact that the Texans are a better football team than the Ravens, Baltimore will be the team to win comfortably this weekend. The Ravens went 6-2 at home this year, which is favorable when compared to the Colts, who dropped five games on the season, four of which being away from Lucas Oil Stadium. Andrew Luck has struggled all year on the road, while Joe Flacco is a post-seasoned veteran who has been here many times before. The bright lights and the deafening crowd will prove to be too much to handle for the young Colts. If Ravens new offensive coordinator, and former Colts head coach, Jim Caldwell has half a brain, he’ll feed Ray Rice the ball early and often against Indy’s 29th ranked run defense.
With an extra year under his belt and revenge on his mind, Andy Dalton will be in primed and ready to pull off the upset in Houston. The Bengals will be a tough out, but in January, the cream rises to the top and this is one source that has not fully abandoned the Texans Super Bowl chances. This game will be closer, but Houston will pull it out.
You can’t tell us this guy doesn’t have the look of a champion. #BEASTMODE!
There you have it: home teams go 3-1, favorites go 4-0 (reluctantly). And considering our preseason Super Bowl pick won 10 games but still missed the playoffs, we need to curse select a new NFC representative…
Can an rookie quarterback win the Super Bowl? Not sure. But HHSR believes one can make the leap and play on “Super Sunday”: Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks. They are a complete team that consistently plays well in all three phases (offense, defense & special teams) and though they’re not nearly as dangerous on the road as they are at home, their brand of football can easily translate anywhere. They control the line of scrimmage and they get after the quarterback.
Sounds like a “Super” team…at least that’s what we think.
What say you?