Cause sleep is the cousin of death.
You know just when you think the slate of Wildcard games isn’t any good, the football gods will bless us with a few memorable moments. So do your best to forget about the matchups. Just remember from this point forward, every game is win or go home!
Here’s HHSR’s predictions for Wildcard Weekend 2015!
Arizona Cardinals (5) at Carolina Panthers (4)
Yeah…we didn’t do anything to deserve this, did we? While Ryan Lindley versus a 7-8-1 Panthers team who is inexplicably hosting a playoff game isn’t the most appealing game on paper, there are some legitimate storylines here.
You’d have to assume it works in Arizona’s (6.5 point underdogs, mind you) favor that people have been counting them out all season. Bruce Arians won 11 games with this elephant just chillin in the room. Even we counted out the Cards before the season because of preseason injuries. Carson Palmer only played a handful of games, but here they are. The Cardinals are among the league leaders in turnover differential and Arizona has one of the elite defenses in the NFL; this group — and possibly Patrick Peterson on special teams — will likely have to score points for Arizona to pull this off.
Meanwhile, the Panthers snuck into the playoffs like Bruh Man— from the “fif flo” to the fourth seed! Carolina only defeated one legitimately good team all season and that was 16 weeks ago! Sure, the Panthers are peaking at the right time, but how much should we value a four-game winning streak against four bad teams? Everybody is on the Panthers for this game, including Vegas in a major way, but are they really to be trusted?
Ryan Lindley looked almost decent last week (23-39 for 316 yards, 2 TDs & 3 INTs— he’s getting better!). And if the Cardinals really aren’t bringing back the great Larry Fitzgerald after this season, there’s no way he’s going out to a sub .500 team in the playoffs, especially a team he’s torched on the same field in the postseason before.
This game could go either way, but the Cardinals should definitely cover, and we see them advancing.
Baltimore Ravens (6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3)
Should we be more excited about Pittsburgh going 5-1 vs playoff teams or concerned that 4 of their of 5 L’s came against non-playoff teams (including two at home, and their only loss to a playoff team was against Baltimore)? Playing to the competition appears to a calling card of this Steelers team. Ordinarily, this wouldn’t be an issue because when playing in the playoffs, you’re obviously squaring off against the best the NFL has to offer. But facing off against the sixth seed at home, a team that didn’t look particularly good last week, could easily lull Pittsburgh into a false sense of security.
The Steelers ought to be smarter than that because the Ravens are a divisional ARCH RIVAL that isn’t afraid of them. This team is a mere 23 months removed from a Super Bowl title. Granted, this team is very different; but their head coach, quarterback, leading receiver and their current defensive and emotional team leader were all there. They also have Steve Smith— the ultimate “fox hole” player at his position. He lives for these types of games and will be heard from before all is said and done.
On paper, the number 1,002 wouldn’t mean much to Pittsburgh, but this is the amount of total yards racked up by Le’Von Bell over the last six weeks when the Steelers were playing their best ball of the season. Bell will not play this weekend after suffering a leg injury last week, which puts even more pressure on pass-catching dynamo Antonio Brown. If the Ravens watched the Sugar Bowl, they should have the general gameplan needed for defeating Pittsburgh. The Ohio State Buckeyes were able to keep Alabama’s Amari Cooper in check (he scored twice, but had less than 100 yards receiving), and Bama’s offense was essentially crippled after the first quarter.
John Harbaugh, 9-4 in the playoffs with seven road wins, should copy this strategy in every conceivable way with regards to Brown. If Antonio hauls in less than 100 yards, Pittsburgh won’t win. Period. The absence of Bell also means there’s nothing to keep Baltimore’s pass rush honest, a unit which led all playoff teams in sacks during the regular season, third in the NFL overall.
We had the Steelers winning the AFC North in the preseason, and truth be told, they’re better than the Ravens. But the playoffs are often about matchups and momentum— each seems to be favoring BMore at this point.
Ravens pull the upset, and we all get to see another hilarious Mike Tomlin postgame presser.
Sidebar: This is the worst case scenario for the New England Patriots.
Cincinnati Bengals (5) at Indianapolis Colts (4)
It seems like a lot of people liked these two teams at the start of the season, and by year’s end everybody looked at these two teams as fugazi contenders. Each team’s glaring flaws fueled the disbelief of the general public. The Colts having basically two quality wins on the season (four if you count two W’s over Houston) is a problem, as was their embarrassing defensive performances against the Steelers and Patriots midseason. However they did destroy this same Cincinnati team 27-0 in Week 7. Perhaps the two weirdest things about this team is that A) Trent Richardson is still the team’s starting running back and B) the Colts oddly went one of the best teams in the league at protecting the football last year, to one of the worst this year.
Andrew Luck has been anointed by, well, everyone, as being “next up”, but truth be told he hasn’t been all that great in his first three playoff appearances. Now, it isn’t to the point that we need to start drawing comparisons to his playoff résumé to Indy’s last franchise quarterback, but now might be a good time for Luck to string together a couple of good playoff games just to put a halt to that train before it leaves the station.
The Bengals have been as unpredictable as any team this year. We referenced Andy Dalton’s inconsistent play in our Wildcard preview last year, but we bypassed it because of Cincinnati’s defense…
That was a mistake.
Dalton went 29-51, threw 1 TD and 2 INTs in a home playoff loss to San Diego a year ago. Dalton and unreliable coach Marvin Lewis, with A.J. Green likely out, on the road versus Indy? The Colts are the pick. They only think that could derail this is Jeremy Hill having the game of his life.
Remember preseason we said the Lions needed a heart transplant? This is the guy that’s gonna give it to em!
Detroit Lions (6) at Dallas Cowboys (3)
Reputations are on the line on Sunday.
The Cowboys had dropped two of their last three games and had cooled off a bit when I labeled them my dark horse NFC team on the HHSR podcast. Our guest Vince Hicks (after I twisted his arm a little), labeled the Detroit Lions his dark horse team. Well, here we are.
The Cowboys elite O-line versus the Lions stout D-line (including Ndamukong Suh, whose suspension was reversed despite the fact that he should’ve been thrown out of the league long ago…no, seriously), will be the obvious matchup to watch. But a staggering statistic has been circulating the last week that may shape the way many view this contest:
In 16 chances over six years, Lions QB Matthew Stafford has NEVER won a road game against a team with a winning record. Ironically, HHSR questioned Stafford’s ability two weeks ago in The Hot 16. Tony Romo’s record against quality opponents isn’t nearly as damning, however he’ll be attempting to overcome his own set of personal playoff demons. Luckily for him, this is the most complete Dallas Cowboys team he’s every had.
Romo bogarded his way into the MVP discussion late in the season. Even though should finish no higher than fifth (trailing J.J. Watt, Aaron Rodgers DeMarco Murray and Tom Brady in some order), he probably will place higher than that. But he deserves credit for authoring the most efficient year of his career. Dallas’ big question is its defense, but the Cowboys (shockingly) led the NFL in takeaways in 2014.
Like the Panthers, the Lions haven’t beaten a quality opponent since September. Even with Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate, and even though once stats like the aforementioned Stafford one gains some steam they always seem to get disproved (see Andy Dalton’s prime time record prior to the Broncos Monday Night game), the Cowboys will win this game because they’re simply a better team. Although it will be closer than the seven point line would indicate.
NFC Champion
Sure, it feels pretty good at the moment to have picked the Patriots to win the Super Bowl before the season. Unfortunately for the second straight year, one of our Super Bowl teams failed to qualify for the playoffs. We picked the Saints before the season (thanks for nothing), however that was with the caveats that Rob Ryan didn’t go Rob Ryan, and that NOLA had home field advantage for the NFC Championship game….clearly they took the “home” thing a little too far because that’s where the Saints will be watching the playoffs.
Of course, we need to select a replacement team, and on the Preseason Podcast of the Year’s preseason podcast, we said the Seahawks were still the best team in football. Now that they have home field— there’s no reason bail on them again.
Patriots vs Seahawks— predictable? Maybe. But how can you sleep on the defending champs?