Perhaps the coolest thing about this website being almost a year and a half into its existence is the comfort that comes with the time that’s been invested into it. You become more comfortable with getting your opinions out to the masses. You grow accustomed to having those opinions dissected and occasionally ridiculed. And hopefully, you become well-adjusted enough to deal with it.
Comfort will unquestionably play a huge role in this weekend’s NFL Wild Card games. Why? For starters, teams playing on the road in big games by and large seem to be getting smoked this year— a trait that has extended league-wide to a sickening degree. Seriously, too many teams are night and day on the at home versus on the road. It’s pathetic. And if winning on the road in the playoffs weren’t bad enough, Mother Nature has decided to put the Midwest and east coast in a deep freeze this weekend, throwing that silly thing called “comfort” in front of a moving train.
Taking a quick look back at the preseason picks, HHSR correctly predicted four of six AFC playoff teams and three of six in the NFC. Last year during NFL’s second season, we went 8-3 (including 4-0 in this round) on picks and 10-1 against the spread. Perhaps we’re more comfortable this time of year.
Which of these teams have the capacity to heat up when the temperature drops? Here’s our picks for this season’s Wild Card round.
AFC Wildcard: Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts
The Colts and Chiefs met in Kansas City just two weeks ago, and while the outcome of that game is not automatically indicative of the outcome of their playoff matchup, the 23-7 ass-kicking Indy put on KC in the increasingly overrated Arrowhead Stadium shouldn’t be ignored.
It’s cliché (and often accurate) to point to the turnover battle as the deciding factor of any football game. In this case however, no statistic should loom larger. The Chiefs’ resurgence and Andy Reid’s Coach of the Year credentials are almost exclusively built on two things: forcing turnovers and slapping around backup quarterbacks (those two things are not necessarily mutually exclusive). KC faced five backup signal-callers in a row in the middle of their season; a tidy 5-0 record in those games helped them stroll into their bye with a 9-0 mark. Then Kansas City started to face legitimate completion, and before you knew it, finished the season 2-5.
Nonetheless, turnovers was their game. The Chiefs led the AFC with 36 takeaways. In fact, according to the Associated Press, the Chiefs’ league-leading 11 touchdowns from defense and special teams (aka miscellaneous TDs) are tied for the third-most in NFL history!
Sidebar: Interestingly, the only teams to have had more in a season were the ’98 Seahawks (13) and the ’10 Arizona Cardinals (12), neither of whom even made the playoffs.
The problem for them is the Colts had the fewest giveaways in the NFL this season (14, five of which came in one game, meaning they only had nine in their other 15 games! Math is fun!). Chiefs fans should be highly concerned that A) Indy takes great care of the ball, B) Andrew Luck has no resemblance of a backup quarterback and C) the Colts won the turnover battle 4-0 when they beat them by two TDs on December 22nd.
Although the Chiefs have been adept at forcing turnovers (and turning them into points) all season, they cannot bank on that at this juncture. From this point forward, they’re only going to face teams that minimize silly mistakes— that’s why they’re in the playoffs. So Kansas City can kiss plays like this goodbye.
For the Chiefs to pull this game off, Jamaal Charles will need to have a huge game, which he’s more than capable of doing. Just ask the Oakland Raiders.
Of course, the Colts have this nasty vice of showing up for games in a comatose state. It happened a least three times this season, and if it happens in the playoffs, Indy could be the type of team to catch a 42-10 fade. On the flip side, Chuck Pagano’s crew does own W’s over the Seahawks, Broncos and 49ers (and Chiefs), so it’s clear they can turn it on against the league’s very best.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs are 1-5 against playoff teams, with their lone W coming against the pre-Nick Foles Eagles in Week 3. Add in the fact that Indy took some playoff lumps last year while the Chiefs were haggling over the top pick in the draft, and the Colts home field advantage, and it’s evident who should win this game.
Of all the teams in the playoffs, the Chiefs are feeling most fugazi. Indy wins going away, especially if they shut down Charles the way the Colts shut down Kansas City’s Larry Johnson in their 2007 playoff matchup.
NFC Wildcard: New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles
There’s nothing more annoying than a player or a team brazenly shooting down a narrative when they created that narrative with their own actions. It was wack when Peyton Manning did it and it was just as disingenuous when Sean Payton and the Saints made light of their road struggles this week.
Knock it off, New Orleans. Stop acting like you have no road issues when you’re only 3-5 on the road this season and 0-3 in road playoff games in the Brees/Payton era. In fact, the Saints have NEVER won a road playoff game. Away from home this season, NOLA has been killed by Seahawks and Rams, beaten handily by Jets, faltered in final minute versus the Patriots and Panthers and has struggled to beat two teams with top 5 draft picks (Tampa Bay and Atlanta). Their only quality road W was against Bears back on October 6th!
Strangely, Philly does not necessarily present much of a home field advantage. While the Eagles — having won seven of eight and three straight at home — are red hot , they’re also just coming off a franchise record 10 game home losing streak at The Linc. Up until Week 11, the Eagles looked about as pathetic as Mac, Dennis and Dee. And Coach Faizon Love ain’t having that!
If I say it one mo time…IF I SAY IT ONE MO TIME!!!
The argument in favor of the Saints is a fairly simple one: Drew Brees is awesome and the Eagles have the worst pass defense in the NFL. As inviting as that sounds, defenses seem to have smartened up a bit and have thrown everything they have at stopping Jimmy Graham. Undeterred, Graham has still managed to look like football’s Blake Griffin — a biracial dude that dunks every game (in other words, he still had five TDs in his last five games) — but Superstar Jimmy’s break-neck pace has been slowed a bit from early this season, having averaged only 54 yards per game in his last five outings. The Saints can’t win in the playoffs without Jimmy ballin out. They just can’t.
The Eagles have managed to slow down hiipowered offenses like the Lions and Bears at home, but the offense turned out an excellent year from start to finish under rookie coach Chip Kelly. LeSean McCoy (whom HHSR said was the league’s second best back besides AD before last season) led the league in rushing and quarterback Nick Foles somehow set an NFL record for best touchdown to interception ratio (27-2).
Sidebar: And in “The Year of Peyton”, Foles actually led the NFL in passer rating. Albeit in only 11 starts, but still.
Expect Greenman to make his triumphant return to The Linc on Saturday night.
In the end, New Orleans is more than capable of winning this game. But they’ve done nothing to earn the benefit of the doubt if they’re not playing at the bottom of the map. Dome teams are typically softer than a Drake listening party and the Saints have played right into this theory. In the three road playoff L’s they’ve taken in the Brees/Payton era, New Orleans has fumbled the ball nine times and lost seven. Keep an eye on the Saints ability, or lack thereof, to hang onto the ball when the weather dips below 25 degrees, which is where the temperature will be at kickoff.
Knowing full well what the naysayers are naysaying about them, the Saints will keep it close, but the Eagles win after a crucial New Orleans turnover late in the game and Brees drops to .500 in the playoffs.
AFC Wildcard: San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals
Speaking of quarterback play in the postseason, few field generals are more compelling to watch this January than Philip Rivers.
For those of you unfamiliar with Rivers, here’s all you need to know: while inconsistent throughout the first three months of the season, Phil Rivers inexplicably turns into Johnny Unitas when the calendar flips to December— a 30-7 lifetime record with 66 touchdowns and 20 interceptions on his career! Then, after he wills his team into the playoffs, the chariot turns back into a pumpkin faster than you can say “choke job”.
Here’s a look at Philip Rivers career playoff numbers aka games played in January:
Game 1 (Loss, 24-21 vs. New England): 14-32, 230 YD, 0 TD, 1 INT.
Game 2 (Win, 17-6 vs. Tennessee): 19-30, 292 YD, 1TD, 1 INT.
Game 3 (Win, 28-24 vs. Indianapolis): 14-19, 264 YD, 3 TD, 1 INT.
Game 4 (Loss, 21-12 vs. New England): 19-37, 211 YD, 0 TD, 2 INT.
Game 5 (Win, 23-17 vs. Indianapolis): 20-36, 217 YD, 0 TD, 1 INT.
Game 6 (Loss, 35-24 vs. Pittsburgh): 21-35, 308 YD, 3 TD, 1 INT.
Game 7 (Loss, 17-14 vs. NYJ): 27-40, 298 YD, 1 TD, 2 INT.
Basically only two good games (one of which was a loss) and a whooooole lot of mediocrity. The Chargers made the playoffs by running and passing efficiently and playing keep-away better than just about any team in the league (look no further than the time of possession in the Broncos game as an example of this). But this will be easier said than done against a Bengals team that boasts one of the league’s best defenses, despite several key injuries to that unit.
Led by Defensive Player of the Year candidate Vontaze Burfict, Cincinnati’s defense has been smothering at home, and a large reason why they were one of only three undefeated home teams in 2013 (New England, New Orleans). And they didn’t play a bunch of chumps either. Marvin Lewis, who has never won a playoff game, squad dropped the Patriots, Colts, Steelers, Ravens and Packers (with Rodgers!) in 2013. And it wasn’t all that close either. On average, the Bengals defeated their opponents by an impressive 17.6 points per game at Paul Brown Stadium.
About the only thing that went awry for this team at home was the Katy Perry debacle.
Sidebar: Nobody was safe from the Bengals music fiasco. Not even T.I.
One other notable win for the Bengals was against these very Chargers in Week 13, in Southern California. Sunday’s game won’t be in SoCal. It will be in sub-freezing temperatures in Ohio, where it’s easy to see a team like the Chargers struggling somewhat. Throw in the west coast team traveling east factor, Ryan Mathews’ nagging ankle injury and the Chargers shaky (at best) defense and it’s hard to see them winning. Rivers and his league-leading completion percentage should rely heavily on duel-threat Danny Woodhead in this game as Mathews may not be able to shoulder his normal workload. But it still won’t be enough.
NFC Wildcard: San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers
As previously mentioned, several times, weather should be been a significant factor in much of this weekend’s action…and then there’s the Packers/Niners game.
This bout to be the new Ice Bowl right here!!!
It wasn’t anything remotely close to warm in Chicago, IL last Sunday night (I know because I was there), but Aaron Rodgers returned and still managed to bring the magic with him.
With temperatures well below zero on tap for Sunday afternoon, this contest should shape up like your classic ground & pound type of game, which easily favors the 49ers power running attack. Only three teams averaged more rushing yards per game than the Niners, and coach Jim Harbaugh has been saving Frank Gore for this moment.
Green Bay’s running game has come a long way, but rookie sensation Eddie Lacy is nursing a bum ankle, which means even more of the load will likely fall on Rodgers and Randall Cobb, neither of whom are 100% either.
Sidebar: If that weren’t enough, linebacker Clay Matthews has already been rules out for the game.
As you may recall, San Francisco knocked the Packers from the playoffs last January after Colin Kaepernick set the record for rushing yards by a quarterback in a game. It’s also worth noting the Niners beat the Packers in Week 1 this season, where Kaep threw for a career-high 414 yards and three scores (without Michael Crabtree). Packers D coordinator Dom Capers probably lost a lot of sleep this weekend trying to prepare for this game. The 49ers have actually won all three games they’ve played against the Pack since Harbaugh became the team’s leading man, which means we’re about one game away from the “Harbaugh owns Rodgers” narrative from really taking shape.
Harsh? Maybe. But none of these games were as close as the final scores would suggest. Green Bay was beaten soundly in all of these games, including the one Alex Smith started.
Packer backers will be convinced they have shot with Aaron Rodgers, which is 200% true. But realistically, just making the playoffs was this team’s championship. Though they won three of their last four games to get here, the Packers could’ve easily lost all four of those games. Meanwhile, the 49ers have won six straight.
If Rodgers puts on a show and beats San Francisco in those conditions on Sunday, it’ll be time to break out a new nickname. But given what they’re up against, it will be a tall task.
We had the Niners going up to Seattle for a NFC Championship Game death match prior to the 2013 NFL season, no reason to back off of that now.
One more order of business— since our preseason pick decided to take the season off after Week 2, it’s time we selected another Super Bowl representative from the American Football Conference. While the Texans are long gone, the team we wrestled with making our AFC championship pick not only managed to make the tournament, they were 4-0 against playoff teams, had a dominant defense (top five in fewest points allowed, takeaways and total defense) and their quarterback was seventh in passing yards and third in TD passes. If you didn’t guess this team right away, it’s cool. A lot of teams didn’t expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be this good.
The only thing really standing in their way is quarterback Andy Dalton. His mercurial play has shifted Cincinnati’s ceiling from comical championship pretender to legitimate championship contender on multiple occasions. Dalton has four games with a passer rating above 120.0, yet four games with a rating below 63.0! If he can protect the ball, Cincy’s defense should be able to carry this team past the AFC’s very best. And in recent years, teams that play this weekend have had a knack for making (and often winning) the Super Bowl.
Sidebar: It was between either them or the Patriots. Given what the Pats have been up against all season, it’s hard to see them making it out of the AFC, despite the heroics of the QB and coach.
Enjoy Wildness of Wild Card Weekend everybody, hopefully from the comfort of your own living room!