The NFL Wild Card round is like a box of chocolates…you never know what you’re gonna get.
Okay, that was a terrible intro— but not totally inaccurate. Historically, it seems as though the appropriately named Wild Card round can provide as many classic finishes as it can predictable blowouts. This year, we saw three of the four games in that round go down to the wire, two of which ending on field goals at the buzzer, while another was arguably the most dramatic comeback in playoff history. We also saw three of four road teams advance to the Divisional round of the playoffs, which seems like a high number considering we did not see a ton of road teams win big games this season.
Sidebar: Indy over the Niners in Week 3, Carolina over the Niners in Week in Week 10 and Green Bay over Chicago in Week 17 are among the few games involving two teams that were actually good that had something to play for at the time where the road team prevailed.
We went 2-2 on picks in last week’s column (1-3 against the spread) and the team that we liked to go the furthest in the playoffs that was playing on Wild Card weekend was the only team to catch a severe beating.
It was noted in the Wild Card column that the only thing standing in the Cincinnati Bengals’ way was Andy Dalton, and boy do he ever! Andy Dalton’s stood in Cincinnati’s way like Tank Man at Tiananmen Square. Three horrific second-half turnovers and two turnovers on downs in the fourth quarter ultimately buried the Bungles, and our prediction for the AFC. But do you think that’s going to stop HHSR from taking a crack at the Divisional round of the NFL playoffs? Of course not! This is the best weekend of the NFL season, and one ridiculous call can’t hold us!
New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks
Last week we said, “Knowing full well what the naysayers are naysaying about them, the Saints will keep it close, but the Eagles win after a crucial New Orleans turnover late in the game…”
Had the Saints turned the ball over on their final drive, this would’ve been 100% correct. Unfortunately, this ain’t horseshoes or hand grenades. A tip of the cap to Sean Payton and the Saints for running a flawless four minute drill to close out the Eagles. New Orleans changed up their approach as they ran the rock 36 times (compared to just 30 pass attempts) and the Saints effectively controlled the game from start to finish. But they’ll have to play significantly better than they did last Saturday in order to advance once again.
Payton’s crew is now in a precarious spot. Clearly, last week’s game plan was not your conventional New Orleans Saints plan of attack. They played much more of a ground & pound/smash mouth type of game. But what happens when that style of play — which we all know is not their preferred style — is the preferred style of play of your opponent?
Do the Saints continue with this new run the rock/control clock tempo? Sooner or later, aren’t they going to have to revert back to the pass-happy team they were for the first 17 weeks of the season? Hell, they’ve been pass happy ever since Brees got there in 2005. The ground & pound technique was a good one against a Philadelphia team whose coach and quarterback were making their postseason debuts. With that said, nobody does ground & pound better than the Seattle Seahawks, especially in Seattle. The Seahawks also have the league’s best pass defense (led by Richard Sherman, who should win Defensive Player of the Year honors) and are great against tight ends, which is bad news for Jimmy Graham.
Don’t expect the 34-7 thumping we saw in Seattle back on December 2, but the Saints should be overmatched yet again. The Seahawks home loss to the Cardinals in Week 16 may have been the best thing for them, as it lets them know they are not invincible in that stadium and they need to bring their A game if they want to advance to the conference championship. Trapped in an eternal conflict of team identity versus appropriate gameday strategy, the Saints will fall short against a superior team on Saturday (and if by the grace of God they win this game, they’ll still be stuck in the same conundrum when they face the Niners or Panthers on the road).
As discussed on the HHSR podcast, given their home dominance, their excellence in all three phases of the game and the lack of Andy Dalton’s on their roster, really the only thing standing in the Seahawks’ way is performing under the lights when they’re expected to do so. Some players are better at this than others.
Oh, wait a second. Almost forgot! Saints at Seahawks… in the playoffs?!?! Somebody PLEASE put the team on they back doe!!!
That’s right! It’s the return of arguably the greatest viral video in the history of the internet! And Darren Sharper, “Hold my diiiiiiiiiiiick!!!”
Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots
Tom Brady is about to set another NFL record by making his 25th career playoff start this weekend. His counterpart, Andrew Luck, is about to make his third career playoff start. Suffice it to say the experience factor heavily favors the Patriots heading into Saturday night’s contest.
Last week we said, “Of course, the Colts have this nasty vice of showing up for games in a comatose state. It happened a least three times this season, and if it happens in the playoffs, Indy could be the type of team to catch a 42-10 fade”. To pretty much everyone’s surprise, that’s exactly what happened through the first 35 minutes of the game. Indy was actually down 38-10! Then the real Andrew Luck finally decided to stand up.
Luck’s second playoff start embodied everything you need to know about the former Standford quarterback at this stage of his career. Despite a seemingly high football IQ, Luck and his team comes out ill-prepared and digs themselves into a deep hole, in large part due to his (at times) questionable decision-making. But somehow before the clock hits quadruple zero, Luck rallies his troops, makes a few instinctual “football plays” when his team needs them the most and makes a few clutch throws to haul his team out of the fire. An amazing comeback.
Through his first two seasons in the pros though, Luck has struggled mightily outdoors, as has his top weapon T.Y. Hilton. The Florida International flanker has only recorded one game of more than 50 yards receiving outdoors in 2013 (52 vs KC in Week 16), and has only one 100-yard game outdoors in his two-year career. The good news is, that one game was last season against the Patriots when he pulled down six passes for exactly 100 yards and two touchdowns.
Coming off an enormous 13 catch, 224 yard and two TD performance, Hilton now faces a road test in the form of Belichick and the Patriots, who if you listen to talking heads, “will take away T.Y. Hilton, i.e., the Colts number one option”. While that opinion has become popular over the last few days, is it actually true? When up against similar “one guy or bust” offenses this season, the Patriots still allowed Andre Johnson, Josh Gordon and Antonio Brown to get off. Expect Luck and Hilton to put up at least decent numbers on Saturday in a game that will require them to if they’ll have any shot at winning.
So, I guess T.Y. Hilton does a giant “T.Y.” with his arms every time he scores. If true, that’s pretty funny.
After Rob Gronkowski blew out his knee (and subsequently torpedoed both of my fantasy teams…still made it to the finals in both leagues, but man that sucked), the Patriots offense was without its biggest and baddest weapon, particularly in the redzone. It signified the necessary change from a pass first team that relies heavily on Brady’s accuracy and decision-making to a power running team. Given Stevan Ridley’s reoccurring fumbling issues, LeGarrette Blount should figure heavily into the Patriots attack during the playoffs. The Colts in particular could struggle to stop New England’s uptempo ground game, as Indy was 26th in the NFL against the run and the gave up 138 rushing to Kansas City Chiefs not named Jamaal Charles.
It may take a little more guile and cunning than they’d like to expend on this game, but the Pats prevail, extending Brady’s record for wins as a starting quarterback in the playoffs to 18.
San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers
In the marquee matchup of last weekend, the 49ers outlasted the Packers 23-20 thanks to a last second field goal by Phil Dawson. Interestingly, there was virtually no talk of the “Harbaugh owns Aaron Rodgers” narrative (maybe HHSR will be the one to start it). Perhaps it’s because despite his incredibly underwhelming statistics, Rodgers was awesome last Sunday, turning something out of nothing time and again. His best efforts were not enough though, as the better team won. The Niners were able to consistently get pressure on Rodgers and move the ball on offense. Wide receiver Michael Crabtree’s presence opened up the 49ers offense in ways not seen since last season.
These two teams squared off in Week 10. If you know nothing else about this game, know this:
Both Colin Kaepernick and Cam Newton were UGLIER THAN A MASTER P SNEAKER!!!
Newton’s state line: 16-32, 169 yards, zero touchdowns, one interception. Incredulously, Kaepernick was worse: 11-22, 91 yards, zero touchdowns, one interception.
What are we to make of this? Amazing sideline-to-sideline defense or horrendous quarterback play from two young field generals facing sophisticated schemes? The numbers would favor the latter as Newton and Kaepernick both had solid (but not statistically great) campaigns, whereas the Panthers and 49ers each boast one of the NFL’s elite defensive units.
The Panthers have enough talent to make the Super Bowl. Actually, they probably would make the Super Bowl if they played in the AFC. Unfortunately this is Carolina’s first trip to the postseason under Cam Newton and coach Ron Rivera. The 49ers actually did make the Super Bowl last year. Sunday’s contest in Charlotte will be Jim Harbaugh’s seventh playoff game as Niners coach (4-2 so far). Suffice it to say he knows how to prepare his troops for battle in January, a task that the often skittish Rivera has yet to attempt, let alone conquer.
At the risk of sounding somewhat trite, it’s easy to envision the experience factor rearing its head at Bank of America Stadium. Points will be at a premium in this game, but the lack of experience, coupled with a ravenous home crowd anxious for a morsel of playoff success could make for an uncomfortable environment for the home team if they get off to a slow start.
Another thing working against the Panthers is the Ric Flair saga. Last week, Flair — the pride of Charlotte, North Carolina — flew into Green Bay to fire up the Niners. The Panthers players and their fans took offense to this, to the point that The Nature Boy has received death threats for his San Fran fraternizing.
This Nature Boy hate is WACK! And the bad karma it’s created for the Panthers will be their undoing. I understand why Carolina fans are upset, but c’mon. They should really be flattered an opponent is resorting to swagger-jacking one of their own. Besides, this is just the Niners way— we saw them do it to the Falcons last year.
Steve Smith is gimpy, and the Panthers already lack top flight receiving options around Newton (look for Ted Ginn Jr. to make a play or two…just a gut call). Vernon Davis was knocked out of the first meeting this season, but he’s healthy now. The 49ers win physical game and set their sights on the Seattle showdown we all (outside the NFC South) want to see.
A Carolina loss would also make for an interesting tale. Doesn’t “The Cam Newton Story” become just a little more compelling if our main character…suffers a little heartbreak?? And down the road, maybe our protagonist is a little richer for the experience???
San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos
Here we go again.
By now you’ve heard the numbers— 55 TDs, 5,477 passing yards etc. And you’ve probably heard the other numbers— 9-11 playoff record, one and done eight times etc.
If you recall last season’s parting shots on Peyton Manning, we reffered to the Canton-bound quarterback as “a glorified Tony Romo”. One year and several single-season passing records later, HHSR could not stand more firmly behind that statement.As remarkable of a player as he is, Manning often finds himself in the discussion at the very top of the list of the game’s all-time great quarterbacks— it’s the “at the very top” portion of that statement that spawns these types of articles.
Sidebar: Tony Romo is 5th…FIFTH…in career passer rating in NFL history!
Levels.
Imagine for a moment if Michael Jordan never made it to the championship game in college and only made the NBA Finals twice, winning the championship just once. In the year he won it, he shot below 40%, averaged more turnovers than assists and saw his scoring numbers plummet in the playoffs, and he only won the title because his teammates (aside from one half of one elimination game) carried him to victory in spite of his listless performance. And he’s given MVP of the Finals despite the fact that Scottie Pippin was clearly more deserving. Then (still imagining), the year he lost in the Finals, he dribbles the ball off his foot out of bounds with Game 7 hanging in the balance (or he tosses up an airball, whichever you prefer). Now ask yourself, if that’s how Michael Jordan’s playoff career unfolded 16 years into his career, would anyone…ANYONE…refer to him as the greatest basketball player ever?
The prosecution rests.
The Broncos have home field and the NFL’s best offense. Ironically, they had the same thing last year and lost to a tougher Ravens team. The Super Chargers also split the season series with their AFC West rivals, winning the most recent contest in Denver. Granted, Denver was without Wes Welker and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, both of whom will suit up on Sunday. Unfortunately, these two talented players do not effect the game where it most likely will be decided…in the trenches.
Though we picked against San Diego last week, we praised Mike McCoy’s group for being a highly efficient team on offense. The Chargers somehow managed to raise that efficiency to sickening levels last weekend in Cincy, and they’ve used it to help keep their beleaguered defense off the field. San Diego has worked Operation Keep Peyton On the Sideline to near perfection this year, holding the ball for over 38 (of a possible 60) minutes in each of their two games this season. It’s not a coincidence that these were two of the Broncos three lowest scoring games of 2013.
San Diego knows their identity— they are going to punch you in the mouth and wait to see if you fold like origami. And the possibility lingers that with the weather getting worse, Broncos coach John Fox may be forced into a similar situation as the aforementioned Sean Payton.
Denver, and Peyton Manning specifically, has played remarkable football for the majority of this season. While we provided a few stats in San Diego’s favor, in no way could they begin to compete with Manning and his Four Horsemen (Welker, Eric Decker, Demaryius Thomas and Julius Thomas) on the stat sheet. Peyton absolutely deserves his 5th MVP award.
But if football fans have learned anything, it’s that logic doesn’t play well in the NFL. It didn’t play well with our picks last week either, we used too much of it. There are such things as chance, and destiny or possibly divine intervention. The winner of this game may likely be the team that wins the coin toss and gets the ball first (each of these teams would love to play from ahead).
It seems unrealistic that Manning is 0-2 versus the Chargers in the playoffs, but it’s true. Then again, everything about Peyton’s playoff resumé seems unrealistic, but it’s all true, which is why people need to stop excusing his shortcomings. The same pitfalls that drag down lesser quarterbacks seem to bounce off of #18 in the regular season, and he’s viewed by many as the greatest ever. But when January hits and he falters year after year, suddenly the rules change.
Peyton Manning is far too gifted for us to look the other way on his postseason deficiencies. Nothing short of two more Super Bowl titles should officially launch him into the convo of the GOAT. Why?
Cause it’s levels to this shit.
We’ve all been fooled by the glittery regular season too many times before. But I’ve been told since I was four years old, everything thay glitter ain’t gold. We’re picking the Chargers to pull off the upset. But for the pure theater of it, being wrong wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world.