It was a rough 2-4 Wildcard Weekend for us (3-3 against the spread), but picking these games can be difficult. Apart from the fact that all these teams are good, it’s a struggle to decided what are you supposed to put stock into from the season. You could put your faith into the Cowboys being unbeatable at home, but that would’ve been a mistake. But putting stock in the Eagles stumbling around like Mr. Burns after he got shot would’ve been the shrewd move.
It’s tricky, but we’ve typically done okay with it.
- 34-22 (.607) on Wildcard Weekend
- 31-13 (.705) on Divisional Round Weekend
- 11-11 (.500) in Conference Championships
- 7-4 (.636) in Super Bowls
- 83-50 (.624) All-Time
Let’s jump into the premiere weekend of the NFL playoffs!
#5 Houston Texans at #1 Baltimore Ravens (-9.5)
Bill Simmons has a rule for gambling in the NFL Playoffs: “Beware of team who looked too good the previous week.” This rule would assuredly be in play for the either the Texans or Packers, or both. But Houston looks like a prime candidate.
The Texans assaulted the Browns top-rated defense last week to the tune of 31 points—tack on 14 more the Browns offense threw to them (nobody did this better than Cleveland this year) and you have a 45-14 drubbing of a team we thought could ride the magic carpet to the Super Bowl.
While CJ Stroud was sublime in his first playoff game, it’s hard to imagine him pulling this off again, on the road this time against a Ravens team that was first or second in every defensive category along with the Browns (Note: Had the 10-7 Texans actually been forced to play the 11-6 Browns in Cleveland last week, the Browns likely annihilate Houston…that doesn’t matter for the Browns now, but could matter for the Texans on Saturday).
Texans OC Bobby Slowik is getting head coach buzz after last week’s performance. If he can duplicate that this week, just put him at the head of the class for eligible coaching candidates (Belichick, Carroll, Vrabel, Harbaugh, hell, even Nick Saban). These teams met in Week 1 and Houston looked like a team whose coach and QB were in their first game. Baltimore also has the benefit of having been in the bye week spot years before and losing. They know how to handle the week off and won’t be underestimating their opponent this time.
If the emergence of Zay Flowers and Isaiah Likely wasn’t enough, Mark Andrews is coming back injury and Dalvin Cook has been added to bolster the backfield. Lamar Jackson was far from his soon-to-be two-time winning MVP form in September, but the Ravens still handily beat Houston without #8 having to throw the cape on as a passer or runner. Baltimore blew out more good teams than anybody this year and should be ready for house money Houston.
The birds cover and fly on to the conference championship.
#7 Green Bay Packers at #1 San Francisco 49ers (-9.5)
The Packers pulled a stunning upset over the Cowboys last week, perhaps proving that momentum heading into the playoffs is a real thing. We’re used to seeing Dallas pee all over themselves in the postseason, but not at home against a bunch of kids. Jordan Love’s sublimeness equaled that of Stroud’s, and although beating a heavily favored Cowboys team was quite an accomplishment, it tracks with the history of Packers/Cowboys playoff football. Since 2015, Green Bay has won three straight postseason games against Dallas. The TRUE test comes this week as the Packers square up with the 49ers, THE giant thorn in the cheese-filled side of the entire state of Wisconsin.
San Francisco has taken four straight postseason contests over the Cheeseheads by a combined score of 118-81. All since 2013. All quarterbacked by one, Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers’ time in Green Bay can be best summarized by winning a Super Bowl, watching conspiracy videos until 3:30 in the morning on YouTube, and getting bitch-slapped by the 49ers in the playoffs. If Jordan Love can pull THIS off in his first year, it cements his place as the undisputed heir to the Green Bay quarterbacking throne, makes the Packers organization look really smart and makes Rodgers look really, really bad. Like, Jimmy Kimmel ethering him on Twitter level bad. It’s the one thing Rodgers could never do.
The Niners can beat you with the run, the pass, or their defense; in this case, they’ll need to find a way to slow down Aaron Jones. After years of being held in captivity, the Packers tailback has finally been set free over the last month, averaging 119 yards per game and 5.7 yards per carry over that undefeated stretch. Packer pass-catchers will benefit from the injury to Talanoa Hufanga, but that won’t be enough to offset Matt LaFleur’s team being bottom five in rush yards allowed per game and bottom 10 in yards per carried allowed.
HHSR contributor and diehard Packers fan Anthony Hueston’s prediction for this game: “SF. There’s no good reason to pick the Packers even though it could happen.” Expect a heavy dose of Christian McCaffrey in a Niners victory, but the Packers slip in for a backdoor cover.
#4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at #3 Detroit Lions (-6.5)
Baker Mayfield has led the 2023 Tampa Bay Buccaneers deeper into the playoffs than Tom Brady led the 2022 Bucs.
Hard to believe those words were typed on this website, but it is a fact. Mayfield was tremendous last week and proved us wrong, as we were skeptical Tampa would be able to advance given their golden opportunity (of course, this was before we knew the full extent of the AJ Brown craziness). Congratulations, Baker Mayfield!!!
That said…(you know it was coming)
The walking dead Philadelphia Eagles were literally the perfect opponent for Baker. This was a team that went 1-6 in it’s last seven games, whose entire defensive identity had vanished in the last six weeks, and was now facing speculation that their coach’s job may be in jeopardy. The Eagles were defending conference champions, the Eagles were favored, the Eagles had the quarterback with record $255M contract, and the Eagles held all the pressure and expectations.
Meanwhile, the Bucs were coming off an embarrassing home playoff loss last season, were underdogs at home, and were playing without any pressure or expectations. The Bucs’ QB is playing on a one-year $8.5M deal and had to beat out Kyle Trask just to get the job.
Playing with expectations is a real thing (ask Deshaun Watson). Right now, the Baker Bros.— whether they reside in Norman, OK, Cleveland or Tampa — will be quick to tell you how the Browns should’ve never cast Mayfield aside for Watson. But only now does Baker have the luxury of suiting up with literally nobody expecting him to do anything, a stark contrast from Watson’s situation. So when his 9-8 team wins a playoff game, it’s a pleasant surprise.
Sidebar: It’s funny. The Browns by any measure had a more impressive season than Baker’s Bucs. Cleveland’s reward, by virtue of just happening to be in the toughest division in football? A road playoff date with a young upstart team they just waxed in their building three weeks ago. Baker’s reward, by virtue of just happening to be in the cupcake-i-est division in football? A home playoff game against a comatose Philly team. The decision to move on from Baker was not some sliding doors moment for the Browns. Tampa is getting a humbled, more mature Mayfield that only exists because Browns brass had moved on after he insulted coaches and split the locker room (then tried to save face by demanding a trade). He was then let go by two other teams for a reason. If Baker were still in Cleveland, he’d have a huge contract, all of the ego and little humility, the inverse of the formula he’s now riding towards success in Central Florida.
Enter the Detroit Lions. The Lions, in front of rabid fans, got to witness their first playoff win in over 30 years. And they did it by defeating everyone’s playoff darling (even ours a little bit) LA Rams. It was a victory by the narrowest of margins, but Jared Goff was efficient, Amon-Ra St. Brown was dominant, Sam LaPorta played and looked reasonably healthy and the defense got a key stop when they needed it.
Baker Mayfield has raised the bar. Now is team is going on the road, one win away from the NFC Championship Game. We know he’s capable of lighting it up, however he could only muster six points against Detroit in their October matchup. Everything about this says Tampa could easily get routed if Baker no-shows. We’ll bet that he does. Remember, just because Lucy tees up that football, doesn’t mean Charlie Brown has to kick it.
Lions cover and play for the NFC Championship.
#3 Kansas City Chiefs at #2 Buffalo Bills (-2.5)
We’ll never get Manning vs Brady again, but this is the closest thing to it today. Buffalo bested Kansas City this season, which isn’t news. They’ve done that. What they haven’t done is knock off the Chiefs when the money is on the table in January.
At this point, you probably know the breakdown of this one. Josh Allen will make some spectacular plays, while giving away one or two to the opposition. Patrick Mahomes will make some spectacular plays, while offering up the opportunity to give one or two to the opposition. The Bills have beaten good teams all year; the Chiefs have all the big game experience, plus a mental edge over the Bills. If Buffalo is smart, they’ll pounce on anything short or intermediate and will force the Chiefs to throw it over the top in bad weather to bad receivers.
The major storyline here is this being the Chiefs first road playoff game in the Mahomes era, and there are fewer assignments tougher than winning in Buffalo. But this feels like one of those games where Kansas City will absolutely lean into this narrative. Remember the interview Tom Brady gave before he led his Patriots into battle against Mahomes’ Chiefs in 2018?
And remember what Brady did the following week? That whole, “Oh, word? Okay, you’ll see,” energy is what we can expect from Kansas City. Everybody is down on the offense, Travis Kelce looks a step slower, Captain YAC’s (aka Mahomes) stats are down and the Bills are favored at home.
Buffalo should win this game, but a road game could be the one thing to galvanize a not-that-talented Chiefs team and help them pull a off an improbable game. The Bills were our AFC preseason Super Bowl pick, but we’re going Chiefs on the moneyline. (Don’t get too excited, Kansas City fans. You’re probably going home next week.)