Welcome to the best week in football! (Are the Giants and Jags really here?) We’re two weekends away from knowing the participants in Super Bowl LVII!
The Stats:
- 3-3 last week, 2-4 ATS. Although our biggest prediction involving Lamar Jackson appears to be right on schedule
- 77-39 (.663) all-time
- 32-18 (.640) on Wildcard Weekend
- Divisional Round is where we’ve done our best work: 28-12 (.700) all-time heading into this weekend
#4 Jacksonville Jaguars at #1 Kansas City Chiefs (-9)
We really, really should’ve gone 4-2 on picks last week because we nailed the Chargers over the Jaguars pick…until we didn’t. Putting your faith in the Chargers, even up 27-0, is like leaving your 17-month-old unattended for more than 30 seconds. You convince yourself it’ll be fine saying, “I’ll only be gone for a second!” But in the back of your mind you know you shouldn’t get your hopes up. And you sadly return to find your kid eating Vaseline. That said, Trevor Lawrence and the Jags deserve a ton of credit for cleaning up the mess they created.
The Chiefs create potential messes more than you think, but hasn’t come back to bite them in the end very often. Kansas City has the psychological hold on the league New England used to have, where they make mistakes and leave doors open on occasion, but rarely are teams prepared to fully take advantage. Of course, the brilliance of Patrick Mahomes is the biggest reason for this. He takes wild risks, but defenses drop his would-be interceptions. Teams go up two scores on him, but trip over themselves to give the lead back. Is Jacksonville really the opportunistic team that can capitalize on a KC slip-up like Cincinnati did last year? Seems unlikely.
Sidebar: On the Patriots point, many Chiefs fans are dying to act like what they have going now is “a dynasty” like the Patriots had. But nah, y’all ain’t that yet.
The only way things could’ve broken better for the Chiefs would be if Baltimore had stolen that game from Cincinnati. But between Cincy and Buffalo, they’ll only have to face one (KC lost to them both); Brady is out; and they don’t have to worry about the Vaseline Chargers, who aren’t afraid of them. Although it helps the Jags that they’ve seen these Chiefs before, KC never looked stressed when beating Jacksonville in November.
We’ve seen Mahomes lose at home in the playoffs twice before in four years; this just isn’t the type of game Kansas City loses.
Jags cover because KC’s D needs work and it’s a ton of points, but the Chiefs win fairly comfortably.
#6 New York Giants #3 Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5)
When the whole world knew the Giants would “upset” the Vikings, we went the other way simply because the upset seemed too easy. The task gets tougher for Daboll and Dimes as the 14-3 Eagles await. Philly was top 8 in scoring offense and defense this season and manhandled New York in their only regular season meeting that mattered—a 48-22 drubbing of the Giants in Week 13.
The Eagles were the best team in football all season, but red flags are flying that signal this team has already peaked. Philly lost two of it’s final three contests after starting 13-1. Jalen Hurts jumped two levels this season, but he and Lane Johnson are both nursing injuries. Meanwhile, the Giants have no fear of Philly and are playing with house money. This has all the ingredients of a shocking outcome.
Line of scrimmage play determines most football games, but it’s of even greater significance in this game. The team that’s able to dominate the run game the most will in this matchup. Think of it like an old skool WWF Tag Team Championship match: Miles Sanders and Jalen Hurts versus Saqueon Barkley and Daniel Jones. The Giants will keep it close and cover, but the Eagles do just enough to vanquish their longtime division rival. Just don’t be surprised if Nick Sirianni’s Eagles enter the NFC Championship game with some serious question marks.
#3 Cincinnati Bengals at #2 Buffalo Bills (-5.5)
It’s the Divisional Round and we don’t need to lie anymore. The AFC has basically been a three-team party if not since Day 1, since at least the midway point of the season. The Chiefs, Bills and Bengals have been a cut above the rest for some time. If there was a way to play a football game with three teams on two intersecting football fields at the same time, that would be the AFC Championship Game the world needs. Word is Vince McMahon is back—maybe he can get on that (you can never have too many wrestling references in an NFL column on this site).
The Bengals and Bills are now forced to confront their experiences following the Damar Hamlin injury. From a football game-planning standpoint, there’s no way to know who benefits more from that game being cancelled, but it make for a more compelling Sunday showdown. These teams have won a combined 17 games in a row!
Buffalo’s pass rush hasn’t been the same since Von Miller’s injury, but that loss is neutralized by Cincinnati now being without three of five starting offensive linemen. For all the talent the Bengals possess, they managed to skate by the Raiders and the Titans in last year’s Super Bowl run with sub par o-line play. Then they beat a Kansas City team that only sacked Burrow once and knocked him down four times. With the Bills finishing 11th in pass rush win rate (despite Miller’s absence) and the Bengals (after completely restocking their offensive line) clocking in at a cool 30th in pass block win rate, Buffalo should get enough pressure on Burrow to make him uncomfortable in key moments. Throw in an underwhelming Cincy run game and the Bills are poised to pull off a narrow victory, so long as Josh Allen doesn’t do anything stupid.
Bills win but fail to cover.
#5 Dallas Cowboys at #2 San Francisco 49ers (-4)
Okay, so maybe we went to the Tom Brady well once too often. Can you blame us? Betting your 401k on Brady has worked out pretty well for the better part of the last 20 years. But the prediction of the Bucs pulling the upset, despite in last week’s column calling the Cowboys “undoubtedly the better football team”, had almost as much to do with the Cowboys’ propensity for shooting themselves in the foot, leaving their fans to feel like kids with no toys on Christmas, as it did with the GOAT himself. It’s the same reason you’d bet against the Vikings and Vaseline Chargers last week.
Sidebar: A final note on Brady: He didn’t end his marriage for nothing; he’ll be back next year with a better supporting cast. So while Twitter may write him off, you shouldn’t. And we’ve been right about this before. That said, it would be erroneous and disrespectful to say Tom isn’t committed, but it would be nice to see him fully recommit to football after a tumultuous personal and professional season. Beyond his divorce, Tom is doing movies, documentaries, sandwich ads, podcasts, broadcast deals with Fox and TB12…it feels like a lot. Here’s to hoping he gets back in the lab with a new team.
The Cowboys looked fabulous last week, but they played a sub .500 team that snuck in the playoffs like Bruh Man coming through the fire escape. Now they’re up against PURD GAWD! (Yes, years ago I was a Gurley man, now I’m a Purdy boy—this kid will need of a nickname if he balls out again on Sunday). We said last week Brock Purdy was legit. His first playoff start: 18-30 for 332 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs, 89.5 QBR and a 131.5 passer rating. The Niners just have too many weapons for anyone to defend.
The Cowboys absolutely belong here as a top 8 team. They’re probably the third best team in the NFC. But they’re not winning if they can’t force Purdy into multiple turnovers. Put Purdy down for one giveaway in a 49ers W/cover.
We’re going chalk this weekend, with three dogs against the spread. The only team that would truly be a stone cold stunner if they won outright (that’s three!) would be Jacksonville.
Happy watching!