So what did we learn?
Well to my surprise, in addition to all four road teams winning last week for the first time in Wildcard history (although only three of them ended up being favored), as cliché as it is, we were able to once again observe the importance of having a quality quarterback in January.
Each of the four home teams that lost featured a QB making his postseason debut. The four road QBs who won had started a combined 37 playoff games, including six Super Bowls. It feels like we should be able to apply this knowledge going forward in some capacity, right?
Kansas City Chiefs (5) at New England Patriots (2)
The Chiefs stomped all over the Texans 30-0 last Saturday in what was literally a wire-to-wire victory as KC took the opening kickoff back for six points. Kansas City did everything effectively in this game. Alex Smith threw only five incompletions, the team rushed for 141 yards, and most importantly, the defense got to Brian Hoyer.
We predicted a pick six by Hoyer in this game— that didn’t happen. But Hoyer did toss four picks and was responsible for six turnovers overall, putting an end to the idiocy of the Cleveland sports fans who felt the Browns jettisoning Hoyer last offseason was somehow a mistake. The guy is a serviceable backup QB at best.
The Chiefs passed the apprentice’s test with flying colors, but the task gets a little taller this weekend as they’ll be asked to best the master, Tom Brady, this weekend.
The winningest and most successful postseason quarterback in NFL history, Brady hasn’t looked his best since the December 13 Sunday night game against the Texans. Actually, he’s looked like a different quarterback since he lost Dion Lewis and Julian Edelman to injury in consecutive weeks in mid-November. In spite of that, while Cam Newton is everybody’s slam dunk MVP (rightfully so), Brady still probably isn’t getting quite the respect he deserves.
A 2-4 finish to the season effectively knocked Brady out of MVP contention, but the 38-year-old played with injuries scattered across his skill positions all year (Lewis, LeGarrette Blount and Aaron Dobson are all out for the year; Rob Gronkowski, Danny Amendola and Scott Chandler all missed time; Edelman and Brandon LaFell both missed half the season), while Belichick had to piecemeal his offensive line together using equal parts Gerber and gauze. And with all that, Brady still entered Week 17 as the NFL’s leader in passing yards and passing touchdowns, while New England remained in first place in the AFC.
Sidebar: “Entering Week 17” is used as the benchmark as the Patriots essentially didn’t try in their finale against the Dolphins. Brady threw only five passes in the first half. The pedal was clearly off the metal.
Eric Berry and the Chiefs have a real shot at slaying Goliath.
Above all, Tom Brady navigated the Pats to this point while the Deflate Gate atrocity hung over his team the entire offseason. Newton deserves MVP, but if he were asked to divide his time between the field and a courtroom, while being swarmed by media and having his name dragged through the mud all summer, would we still see Carolina atop the NFC?
Probably not, which is why it’s hard to see Kansas City knocking off New England.
This is the “revenge tour”, mind you. Brady won’t allow this season of all seasons to end with a whimper. While the opportunistic Chiefs defense has been a juggernaut of late, they’ll be hard pressed to turnover New England multiple times, which is the only way they can win this game since offensively, KC will be unlikely to keep pace with the Pats. Wide receiver Jeremy Maclin is less than 100% and might not even play. The Chiefs hope is to get after Brady and his shaky o-line without blitzing. If they can do this, there’s a real chance we will witness an upset. Last season I wrote a piece on which teams in the AFC could beat the Patriots— the Chiefs were one of the few that made the cut, especially coming off of their 41-14 Monday night massacre of New England. The teams and rosters are similar enough that KC could again get the job done.
However the Patriots are getting healthier, and even though we don’t know how players like Edelman will look, they should have Rob Gronkowski. Since his second season, the Patriots have never lost a playoff matchup where Gronk was healthy at the start of the game.
Quiet as kept, this is the AFC Championship game. Why? Because their quarterback situations are far more stable than the others (See? We learned something!).
Green Bay Packers (5) at Arizona Cardinals (2)
The elephant in the room here is recently the Cards straight bodybagged the Packers. And we’re talking very recently. Like, since Christmas 2015 recently. The 38-8 demolition was just as bad as it sounds.
And if you’re a history buff, Arizona took down Aaron Rodgers (in his first playoff appearance) and the Pack in a Wildcard game several years ago.
Sidebar: Rodgers balled out that day.
Needless to say AR has quite a few demons to exercise as he returns to the scene of the crimes on Sunday. But even with Tyrann Mathieu now done for the season with a knee injury, Green Bay will have the unenviable task of trying to take down arguably the league’s best team.
Arizona was the only team in the NFL to finish in the top eight in points scored, fewest points allowed, rushing yards and passing yards this year. They also finished first in total offense, fifth in total defense and fourth in turnover differential. Interestingly, they ranked in a lowly tie for 26th in sacks, but sacking the quarterback is exactly what they did to the Packers on December 28…again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again.
You might be wondering what Green Bay’s silver lining is in all this. The Packers actually played their best football in months last week when they dispatched the Washington Redskins from the postseason. They protected Rodgers, rediscovered their running game, moved the ball consistently and scored 35 points. As HHSR staff member Anthony Hueston pointed out, the Cards scored 28 of their 38 points off Packer turnovers in Week 16, including two defensive TDs. Rodgers also threw an uncharacteristic INT in the end zone, and their top cover corner Sam Shields sat out that contest, but is back now. Plus, the last time we saw the Cardinals, they were getting slapped silly by the Seahawks in the season finale.
Although, we don’t really know how hard Arizona was trying in that game. And the Packers will be without receiver Davante Adams, who scored against Washington. The biggest reason yours truly picked Green Bay to win last week was the funk of fraudulence that was seeping out of the Redskins locker room, which proved to be accurate. So how much stock should we put into this Packers bounce back?
Anthony may be putting enough in it to pick the Pack, but I’m not.
Arizona advances in a much closer game than the last contest.
Seattle Seahawks (6) at Carolina Panthers (1)
Sure, Pete Carroll and the Seahawks players all said after the game they knew Blair Walsh would miss the kick, but they sure celebrated the miss like they had just witnessed a miracle.
As discussed last week, the Seahawks have been a trendy pick to come out of the NFC (and you know how I feel about trendy picks, who goes to three straight Super Bowls anymore?), but lets seriously look at what’s happening:
Picking the Seahawks means you’re picking a team that flew from Seattle to Minneapolis and played a physical game in sub-zero temperatures that they really, really should’ve lost; then flew back to Seattle, only to fly back across country to Charlotte this weekend to play a 12:05 p.m. EST game against a 15-1 team at home featuring the well-rested presumptive MVP.
Does that sound right to you?
Cam Newton’s Panthers also bested Russell Wilson in Seattle earlier this year, a win that boosted Carolina’s confidence to a new stratosphere. A pick for Seattle means you’re ignoring all of the above and are relying largely on Russell Wilson and his divine intervention to see Seattle through like it has so many times before (Fail Mary, 2015 NFC Championship Game, last week, etc.). We also don’t know what type of condition Marshawn Lynch will be in after he was a surprise-no show last week. Seattle’s defense is once again top notch, but the Panthers shockingly led the NFL in scoring this year (31.3 points per contest) and boast a pretty good defense of their own. As much has he’ll be spying Wilson, expect Panthers middle linebacker Luke Kuechly to look like Sterling Archer.
Still, this feels like the type of game Seattle would pull out late, but only if you truly believe Carolina isn’t ready for the stage. I liken this Panthers team to the 2009 Cavaliers. LeBron won his first MVP, the team was almost unbeatable at home, they were blowing teams out every night and had more fun than any team in the NBA, dancing and taking mock team photos on the sidelines.
For whatever reason, teams that behave like this tend not to win it all. That Cavs team SHOULD HAVE made the NBA Finals, but didn’t because when adversity finally hit, they couldn’t adjust…but they did sweep the first two rounds of the playoffs.
Carolina takes advantage of a talented yet tired Seahawks team and knocks off the biggest bully on the block. But if this comparison is apt, their time in the playoffs is short.
Pittsburgh Steelers (6) at Denver Broncos (1)
Remember the quarterback theme that kicked off this column? So far, my each of picks to advance will feature a quarterback who will probably finish in the top three in MVP voting (although it makes sense, that wasn’t the plan— it just worked out that way).
And then there’s Pittsburgh at Denver, where we could easily see four QBs take the field. While I lucked out picking Seattle over Minnesota last week, I got burned by the Bengals bungling away a sure-fire playoff win (Marvin Lewis should’ve lost his job over it). With the help of some incompetent officiating (Steelers coach Joey Porter not being flagged for walking on the field and starting an argument with Bengals players was a travesty), and Cincy players who if you added their Wonderlic scores wouldn’t crack double-digits, the Steelers made it to Mile High.
But the price was steep.
If Antonio Brown can’t go, Pittsburgh’s season ended right here.
Ben Roethlisberger reportedly has ligament damage in his throwing shoulder; Antonio Brown was nearly decapitated. The Steelers CANNOT win without these two players. But at this point, even if they somehow suit up (which should call into play some real ethical questions if the NFL truly cares about safety), how effective will they be? Big Ben can’t play quarterback with one arm and Brown is one hit away from his brains turning to pudding.
Sidebar: Deangelo Williams is looking like he’ll miss another game as well.
Also, as of this morning, Antonio Brown has been officially ruled OUT for Sunday’s game.
As horrendous as he was this year, Peyton Manning is somehow Denver’s starting signal-caller again. The Broncos and their fans got a shot in the arm in Week 17 when Manning trotted out in the third quarter, but that’s nothing compared to the shot in the ass Peyton got when he took the human growth hormone that was sent in his wife’s name.
Okay, bad joke. I have no idea the validity of the Al Jazeera story, but Denver sure is catching a break considering most news outlets immediately dismissed it, unlike what the Patriots and Tom Brady had to deal with in last year’s playoffs. Manning’s greatest attribute at this point might be audibling to running plays at the line, but that Manning guile should be enough. Denver’s defense, without a healthy Ben & Brown, is talented enough to carry the team to a victory, setting up the Brady/Manning XVII matchup we were robbed of in November.
Denver’s backup quarterback is way more solid than Pittsburgh’s, but their overall QB situation isn’t in the same stratosphere as New England’s at this point, or Arizona’s or Carolina’s. It’s probably not better than Kansas City’s either. Knowing that, the Broncos are living on borrowed time, but their hour glass won’t run out until after the final gun on Sunday.
Anthony’s picks: Chiefs, Packers, Seahawks, Steelers
Kenneth’s picks: Patriots, Cardinals, Panthers, Steelers