Welcome to the divisional round of the playoffs! Population: Eight. The kids have been put to bed, there’s only grown man teams left in the NFL playoffs.
Looking back briefly at the HHSR wildcard round column, you’ll find that not only did we correctly predict the Texans, Ravens, Seahawks and Packers to advance, but in several instances, we accurately described how the games would play out. But in case you missed it…
AFC Wildcard- Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans
We said the Bengals would lose a close game to the Texans. In addition, we said that Houston’s struggles could be traced to Arian Foster’s recent performance and that if the Texans could hold down A.J Green, the Bengals wouldn’t have much firepower beyond that.
Houston won the game 19-13. Cincinnati was an Andy Dalton overthrow in the endzone away from winning the game, but he couldn’t connect with Green, who had only 5 catches for 80 yards. Meanwhile, Foster finished with 140 yards rushing and a TD.
AFC Wildcard- Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens
We had the Ravens blowing out the Colts and cited Baltimore’s home success and Andrew Luck’s road difficulties. The Colts inability to stop the run and Joe Flacco’s postseason experience were factors in this call as well.
The Ravens were victorious 24-9; not exactly a blowout, but the Ravens won this game going away as the Colts never seriously threatened to score a touchdown. It was also the largest margin of victory of any game last week. Flacco’s passer rating of 125.6 completely obliterated Luck’s 59.8 and Luck also threw a crucial 4th quarter INT. Baltimore also racked up 170 rushing yards.
NFC Wildcard- Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers
The Packers were a team pretty much everyone had advancing, especially when it was announced that Christian Ponder would miss the game due to injury and backup Joe Webb would get the start. Our article went up before that announcement, but the analysis would remain the same unless Minnesota came out of the locker room with Daunte Culpepper and a time machine.
Green Bay got the win, mainly due to Webb, whose passes were so inaccurate you would’ve thought he was using a slingshot. The return of Clay Matthews helped the cause as well (as we also predicted) as he picked up two sacks and knocked down the wide-eyed quarterback three times.
NFC Wildcard- Seattle Seahawks at Washington Redskins
Lastly, we had Seattle defeating the Redskins in Washington due to a strong defensive effort, savvy play from their rookie quarterback and a hobbled Robert Griffin III.
After falling behind early, the Seahawks came back to win 24-14. Griffin’s injury hampered the Redskins’ offense for the final three quarters of the game and the 14 points the Seattle defense allowed in the opening 15 minutes were the only points the Redskins would see on the day. Russell Wilson also played a very smart game, earning his first playoff comeback victory. And unfortunately, we all saw what happened to RGIII (though we shouldn’t be surprised).
At this point, you’re probably asking yourself, “Did they really just rehash everything they correctly predicted from last week’s playoff games???”
You bet we did!
Gotta work this picture in at any and every opportunity.
Sidebar: If you’re not a fan of shameless self-promotion, then this is not the website for you. Wait, did this egregious display of personal mollycoddling and self-high-fiving just paint us into a corner so that now every prediction from this point forward must be dead on at the risk of looking like a complete jackass? Crap. Forget everything you just read.
Welcome to the divisional round of the playoffs!
When you get this close to the end of the season, it’s a pretty safe bet that quarterback play will be the biggest factor in deciding which team is left standing when the smoke clears.
Colin Kaepernick, Matt Schaub, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Tom Brady, Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan— one of these men will be hoisting the Lombardi Trophy on February 3.
Three of those eight (Manning, Rodgers & Brady) have climbed the mountain at least once before and only Kaepernick has yet to play in a playoff game. However last week, both Matt Schaub and Russell Wilson won their first ever playoff starts, and the 49ers have more than enough talent around him to make a deep run. Speaking of the 49ers…
NFC Divisional- Green Bay Packers at San Fransisco 49ers
Classic matchup. Still can remember watching this game live, in fact.
Any game involving the Packers will obviously start and end with Aaron Rodgers. If the Packers can keep him upright, he will have his way with San Fransisco, despite the Niners’ third ranked defense & second ranked scoring defense.
San Fransisco, on the other hand, was only a middle-of-the-pack team (no pun intended) in intercepting the opposing QB with just 14 on the season, and the same can be said for sacks (38), despite Aldon Smith raking up 19.5 on his own. But as we discussed last week, the Packers allowed 51 sacks (second most in the league) and the 49ers sacked Rodgers three times and hit him five times in their 30-22 win over the Packers in Green Bay the first week of the season.
Much of the 49ers ability to get to the quarterback will hinge on defensive lineman Justin Smith’s presence and effectiveness. Smith had just one tackle in their first meeting, but the Niners pass rush hasn’t been the same since his triceps injury against the Patriots a month ago. In fact, Aldon Smith only has a handful of his 33.5 career sacks without Justin Smith being on the field at the same damn time, and with Justin out of the lineup, Aldon hasn’t brought down a quarterback since December 9. It may not seem like it, but Justin Smith is the defensive MVP for the 49ers. While he won’t be 100%, J. Smith is responsible for calling out stunts for the Niners D-Line. So his presence alone will impact this game.
We’ll have to see whether Colin Kaepernick is phased by the bright lights of the playoffs, but since Wally Pipp-ing the hell out of Alex Smith, he’s totaled 15 TDs and only 3 INTs, with an average passer rating of 100.4 in seven starts. Jim Harbaugh’s crew also boasts one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL, and we’ve seen the Packers struggle to stop the run at several points throughout the season.
This should be an extremely close game, but it’s the 49ers ability to win in multiple ways that gives them the edge. The Packers will live & die on the right arm of Rodgers. While this is not a terrible thing, the numbers indicate that it’s a dominant run game that has given SF fits this year. The 49ers have given up an average of 143 rushing yards per game in their losses/ties this season (with this average being weighed down significantly by one game in which they only allowed 85). Unfortunately, GB’s putrid run game won’t be able to capitalize on this statistic (Cedric Benson, the best back on their roster who is now on IR, ran for only 18 yards in the first meeting).
Green Bay’s offense could only muster two touchdowns in the first meeting. It will be tough for them do better than that on the road, against this defense, despite the receiving core being healthy.
The Niners should advance.
AFC Divisional- Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos
The Broncos are everybody’s darlings these days, and rightfully so. They have a top five ranked offense and defense and are the #1 seed in the AFC. This Saturday, they host a Ravens team coming off of an emotional victory last week, in what was supposedly Ray Lewis’ last home game. Lewis racked up a game-high 13 tackles (and dropped the EASIEST interception you’ll ever see). As their reward, Baltimore must travel to Peyton Manning’s new house.
While on the subject of Peyton’s crib, it’s worth noting that, according to ESPN, Manning is 0-3 in playoff games with a game-time temperature below 40 degrees, with one touchdown & seven interceptions in those games. The high at Mile High is supposed to be only 19 degrees. While it’s fairly ancient history (hasn’t had one since the mid-2000s), Manning’s performances in these games is something to consider when gauging the Ravens upset chances.
One thing Baltimore is not short on is pride. Even though they do not have as skilled a team as Denver, you know they BELIEVE they can beat any team, anywhere. As HHSR has pointed out many times before, the 2012 Broncos have gotten fat off of massacring inferior competition. Denver was off last week, and given their new #1 seed expectations, it wouldn’t be a surprise if they showed some rust out of the gate. Conversely, don’t be shocked if the Ravens come out hot. Not only will this game be closer than most expect, an upset is not outside the realm of possibility (especially if the Ravens can whip up one more great defensive performance).
Luckily for Denver though, one playoff team they DID play and beat (handily) were these Ravens back on December 16 in B-More.
In that game, the Ravens were hanging with the Orange Crush, until Joe (Don’t Call Me Elite, Because I’m Not) Flacco threw a CATASTROPHIC PICK 6 at the end of the first half.
Seriously, that had to be one of the worst interceptions ever.
Sidebar: Just before that play, Flacco threw a beautiful pass to Jacoby Jones down the sideline. And those two plays are a microcosm of who Joe Flacco is. Even in the playoffs, Flacco is all or nothing: He finished with a passer rating higher than 89.0 in five of his 10 playoff starts, with the highest (125.6) coming last week against the Colts. Yet in the other five starts, Flacco’s passer rating was below 62.0 in each outing (the lowest of which being a Joe Webb-like 10.0…in a game Baltimore actually won!).
Peyton Manning exposed this old/decrepit Ravens defense for the average unit they are in the first meeting. Eric Decker went off for 8 catches, 133 yards and a TD. Even the running game got in on the act as Knowshown Moreno ran for 115 and a score. Basically, every button Peyton pushed was perfect. It’s no wonder that Manning has defeated the Ravens nine straight times (regular season and playoffs).
That kind of dominance should lead to Baltimore giving Peyton Manning the Omar treatment…
So even though Peyton Manning-led teams have gone one & done in the playoffs seven of his 11 career trips, the Broncos will pull out a W and host the AFC Championship Game next week.
It’s been real #52.
AFC Divisional- Houston Texans at New England Patriots
Matt Schaub looked extra-average in his first playoff start last week (29-38 262 yards, 0 TDs, 1 pick six). Needless to say it’s gonna take a lot more to knock of Tom Terrific and the Patriots, in Foxboro, or as the Texans call it, “The Scene of the Crime”.
Houston MUST get out to a fast start this week because they simply do not have the firepower to play catchup against the Pats (they can only get away with that against Jacksonville). Otherwise, Arian Foster, who is the first player in NFL history to rush for over 100 yards in each of his first three playoff games, will be rendered a glorified pass blocker.
That’s exactly what happened on a Monday night about four weeks ago. Andre Johnson dubbed that game “the biggest in franchise history”. If that was the case, than the Texans are an embarrassment of a franchise.
Sidebar: Not saying that they are, but they definitely got embarrassed that night, losing 42-14.
Brady was locked in from the beginning, throwing two TDs in the first quarter and completely controlling the pace that night. Aaron Hernandez had a monster game, yet his partner in crime Rob Gronkowski wasn’t even active. They’ll both be on the field Sunday for just the seventh time all season.
This game has drawn several comparisons (probably by Texans fans more than anyone) to the Patriots divisional round home playoff game against the Jets two years ago because New England demolished NY at home just weeks before the playoffs, but lost the playoff rematch. Brady was hit seven times and sacked five times in that loss. If Houston is to have any chance, they must make the game ugly and improve on their one-sack performance of Brady in Week 14.
Have you ever been on the receiving end of a handshake full of contempt? Matt Schaub has.
Of the Patriots four losses this season, they trailed at the end of the first quarter in three of them. It cannot be stressed enough that Houston must be tied or leading the Pats at the conclusion of the first quarter. It seems like when the Pats are going to struggle, you can usually tell within the first 10 minutes of the game. New England also historically has problems with tight ends. If Schaub can effectively utilize Owen Daniels in the play action passing game, it will free up Foster and Andre Johnson, while giving them the second downfield threat they’ve lacked for so long.
What sucks is HHSR doesn’t see all this happening for the boys from H-Town. Regardless of what our man Bun B says.
Brady is 10-2 all-time in home playoff games and with a victory Sunday, will become the winningest starting quarterback in playoff history. Brady is also nearing a bunch of other postseason records. At the end of the day, this ain’t Tom Brady’s first rodeo. And Houston’s lack luster play the last several weeks (resulting in them pissing away the #1 seed) proved that they aren’t quite ready to take that next step.
New England has too many weapons at their disposal (Did we mention Stevan Ridley? He had over 1,200 yards and 12 TDs this year!) and will move on to Denver next week.
NFC Divisional- Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons
In what should be a highly entertaining contest, the Seahawks travel across country once again, this time playing at 1:00 ET (meaning their bodies will think it’s 10:00 am), to take on the Atlanta Falcons, a team that has been screaming for respect all season.
Why exactly would a team tied for the best record in football be screaming for respect?
For starters, the team is 0-3 in the playoffs in the Ryan/Smith era. Quarterback Matt Ryan has thrown for less than 200 yards in each game, and has a grand total of three TDs and four picks. Head Coach Mike Smith has consistently been unable to prepare his troops for playoff battle.
Sidebar: If it’s any consolation, the Falcons lost each of these games to the eventual NFC Champion. Two of those teams won the Super Bowl and one, the ’08 Arizona Cardinals, were one defensive stop away from winning it all.
Looking at the Falcons this season, it’s easy to see why people are still skeptical. They played the easiest schedule in the NFL in 2012. Moreover, Atlanta only had games against playoff teams twice all year: a home win over Denver in Week 2 before Peyton Manning really got his legs under him and a road win in Week 5 against the Redskins, the game in which RGIII left early due to a concussion.
That’s it!
The Atlanta Falcons haven’t played really good football team since October 7! That was a month before Obama was re-elected! So Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez, Big Boi and every other Falcons supporter needs to understand where the Dirty Bird slander stems from.
Weirdly, tight end Tony Gonzalez has never won a playoff game in his 16-year career. It will be up to Gonzalez, and more importantly his teammates White and Julio Jones, to reverse this ugly trend in the ATL.
Roddy White is a chiseled 6’0”, 211 pounds and Jones is a physical freak at receiver, standing at 6’3”, 220. The physicality that will commence in their matchup against Seattle corners Richard Sherman (6’3”, 195) and Brandon Browner (6’4”, 221) will make it among the most fascinating confrontations in these playoffs.
Browner and Sherman absolutely have the ability to take the Atlanta receivers out of the game. If they’re successful, the Falcons are in trouble because their running game will not have much luck against this Seattle team— the same Seattle team that held Alfred Morris (the NFL’s second leading rusher) to just 80 yards last week. On the flip side, the Seahawks should be able to move the ball via the ground game on Atlanta, who has struggled at stopping the run throughout the season.
Atlanta also had a hard time stopping Cam Newton this year, who murked the Falcons to the tune of 502 passing yards, 252 rushing yards and 6 TDs in two games. Newton is a duel threat, just the Seahawks young signal-caller, Russell Wilson.
Wilson dazzled in his playoff debut this past Sunday (pay special attention to the fourth paragraph in that link). This Seahawks team believes in his ability, regardless of where they’re playing or what the score is; we saw this last week in Washington. Call it leadership, call it poise, call it balls. Whatever it is, Russell Wilson’s got it and Matt Ryan is still trying to find it.
After 0-3 start to his playoff career, Matt Ryan has to be at about the third verse of “Lose Yourself” by this point.
The reason why people are so critical of Ryan is simple: He has the talent to do so much more. You see the regular season stats, you see the weapons general manager Thomas Dimitroff has put around him, and you wonder when this squad is going to ascend to the next level.
Granted, Ryan is still 27-years-old and is entering his prime. But he’s been in the league five years now and this Falcons team will go no further than where he leads them. “Matty Ice” got a pass the first couple of years, but not anymore. If Atlanta loses this weekend, it will be COMPLETELY justifiable to label him as a guy who cannot get it done when it matters most.
Ultimately, it’s never too soon to talk legacy.
Russell Wilson is not just creating his legacy, he’s seizing it. Until further notice (i.e. Sunday), the Seahawks are a tougher team (physically and mentally) than the Falcons because of what we’ve seen these two teams endure this year. This is why we have Seattle going into Atlanta and coming away with a victory.
Everyone already knows what the legacy’s of Brady, Manning and Rodgers look like. But Matt Ryan has reached a fork in the road. He can either claim his spot as an elite passer and leader in this league or his stature in the hearts and minds of football fans everywhere will be grossly stained, perhaps for the remainder of his career. Ryan has the power to change all that though, as soon as the 3rd of February. But, it starts with the Seattle Seahawks.
Nobody has the Atlanta Falcons winning the Super Bowl— will HHSR and prevailing football wisdom be proven right, or will Matt Ryan choose greatness?
Enjoy the games!