NFL Divisional Round Picks: Easy Come, Easy Go

We saw teams that looked unbeatable last weekend that…will get beat this weekend. Such is life in the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs. We finished the Wildcard Round 3-3 (3-3 against the spread). Historically though, this is the round where we really shine:

• 37-25 (.597) on Wildcard Weekend
• 35-13 (.729) on Divisional Round Weekend
• 12-12 (.500) in Conference Championships
• 7-5 (.583) in Super Bowls
• 91-55 (.623) All-Time

#4 Houston Texans at #1 Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5)

You can’t make this stuff up.

Last week, we said of Texans/Chargers that Los Angeles, “won’t lose this game unless Justin Herbert manages to throw two pick-sixes in the game. But that’s impossible, right?”

Cue the video…

Aaaaaand the other one…

Alright, it wasn’t two pick sixes, but it was damn close. That Houston was a mere 12 yards away from pulling this off was remarkable. Throw in two other Herbert interceptions and…yeah, we were way off.

Unfortunately for the Texans, it’s unlikely Kansas City’s quarterback will be reading from The Book of Jameis on Saturday. The Chiefs are by far the most rested and experienced team in these playoffs. The long layoff likely won’t harm them, as Andy Reid is notorious for kicking ass following a bye. The Chiefs are seeking their third straight championship, and while they haven’t looked sharp for much of the year, they’ve mastered late-game execution in all three phases.

Kansas City has quite literally won games with a walk-off on offense, defense and special teams this season.

Read that sentence again.

Has that ever been done before?

Flaws and all, have we ever seen a team like this? The Chiefs haven’t come this far just to come this far. Frankly, a Divisional Round defeat would be an utter embarrassment for a team with history in the scope. Last year, the Texans upset the Browns at home, only to get smacked around by the Ravens. No reason to think this Houston team (who also was smacked around by Baltimore, Minnesota and Kansas City this year) is equipped to do something different.

Although they’re more than due for a playoff dud, the Chiefs cover this study session and await the final exam next week.

#6 Washington Commanders at #1 Detroit Lions (-9.5)

The one prediction we were most proud from the Wildcard Round? Saying the Commanders and Bucs would be the best game of the weekend.

Sidebar: Suggesting that Baker Mayfield “lost the game” for Tampa would be a bit of an overstatement. But he was charged with a fumble in his own territory late, which led to a Washington touchdown; then he led a possession that only yielded a field goal when the Bucs could’ve really used a big boy TD drive. This is who Baker has always been: even in a career year where everyone is singing his praises, Baker fails to delver when it counted most at home against an average defense with a rookie quarterback. Should we be shocked though? He led this NFL in turnovers in his “career year”.

The Lions leaky defense is cause for concern. Surprisingly, they patched up whatever holes that existed in a clinic of a performance to close out the regular season against Minnesota. Detroit’s Jekyll and Hyde defense will likely be their undoing, but it won’t be this week. Jayden Daniels had all the answers to the test last week, but winning in The D is a different animal. With David Montgomery returning from injury, “Sonic & Knuckles” will be at full force to topple one of the league’s worst run defenses in Washington.

Lions advance, but are unable to cover the enormous 9.5-point chasm, and the Commanders earn everyone’s respect.

#4 Los Angeles Rams at #2 Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5)

Both teams won last week—one in impressive fashion, the other in about as bland fashion as you could find. So bland that by the end of it, Saquon Barkley was actually giving touchdowns back. In fact, it’s caused a greater percentage of bets to actually come in on the underdog Rams (according to FanDuel).

Sean McVay completely depantsed the Vikings, reducing Sam Darnold to the ghost-seeing, pick-hurling, top-five draft bust he’s been viewed as the majority of his career. Feeling no remorse for taking food out of Darnold’s future kids’ mouths, the Rams will have a far tougher task duplicating that performance this weekend in Philadelphia.

Gone is the overmatched quarterback and the raw emotion of playing for the city of Los Angeles in the immediate aftermath of the Palisades wildfires, which forced last Monday’s game to Glendale, Arizona. The Rams will need to travel east on short rest, to play in snowy 30-degree weather. They’ll also have to shutdown a 2000-yard back, who took LA apart on November 25.

Barkley won’t repeat this performance, but the Eagles have enough tricks up their wings to win (Rams cover).

#3 Baltimore Ravens (-1.5) at #2 Buffalo Bills

A heavyweight tilt of the highest order—the Bills and Ravens are the epitome of Divisional Round football. Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson have been joined at the sports discourse hip this season. The MVP argument has existed with a low-level racial undercurrent amongst the people doing the debating. This could be the product of the times, but more likely is retroactive shrapnel caused by the prejudice against previous generations of Black quarterbacks. Our hypothetical vote went to Allen, but either would be deserving.

These two teams are eerily similar, but with the game taking place in Upstate New York, and with Zay Flowers still likely sidelined, you have to believe more in the Bills’ ability to throw the ball when needed, and the Bills’ ability to get a stop when absolutely necessary. Allen has also managed to be a more consistent playoff performer than his quarterback counterpart.

Though the Ravens made easy work of the Bills earlier this season, we’ll give the slightest nod to Buffalo.

Bonus: Ohio State will run Notre Dame off the field on Monday’s National Championship Game. But you already knew that.