There’s a reason why so many prognosticators throw in the qualifier “if they stay healthy” before they make picks: it matters.
Looking back at last weekend, the Steelers (Le’Veon Bell), Bengals (A.J. Green) and Cardinals (any quarterback of even average ability) all lost games while key players were inactive. This week, four teams come in off of a bye and injuries — or a lack thereof — could largely shape the outcomes once again.
The Wildcard Round wasn’t the best football you’ve ever seen. But we told you not to sleep last week because just when you least expect it, the NFL is good for stirring up something of great controversy. Look no further than the Lions/Cowboys game from last Sunday.
HHSR correctly predicted three of the four games from last weekend, but perhaps the most prophetic moment in the column was the photo of Jim Caldwell. The caption: “Remember preseason we said the Lions needed a heart transplant? This is the guy that’s gonna give it to em!” The photo: 
The look on that man’s face inspires about as much confidence as a grand jury investigation. Not to mention the creators of this photo decided to label the picture “new coach”, rather than doing the four seconds of research needed to find out Caldwell’s name, which is equal parts cold blooded and hilarious.
All of this is classic Jim Caldwell. So was the complete meltdown of his troops in the second half of the Dallas game. Yes, the Lions got screwed on the picked-up-flag play, not as much because of the penalty itself (the merits of a penalty could be debated all day, but that really looked like pass interference— and since when has face guarding been legal in the NFL? Seems like not turning your head to find the ball was always a flag, until this week, when all of a sudden everybody in the world knew that it wasn’t), but because the penalty was announced, then overturned without any explanation.
Luckily for the Lions, they still had a fourth and 1 from midfield, then several opportunities to stop the Cowboys if/when Dallas got the ball back. Rather than man up in the situation, Caldwell wussed out and punted the ball. After possibly the worst punt in NFL history (anti-wuss karma), the Cowboys went down the field and scored a touchdown, then stripped-sacked Stafford (whom HHSR has questioned repeatedly) to seal a trip to Green Bay. It’s easy to play Monday morning QB, but Caldwell’s trademark skittishness cost his team, a team who played like a reflection of their coach in the second half.
Okay, that felt harsh just writing it. Let’s move onto this weekend’s slate, as we view these games though the prism of good health.
Baltimore Ravens (6) at New England Patriots (1)
HHSR was on this two months ago. We may only be a week into the new year, but the national media is already in full swing. Everybody picked the Steelers to beat the Ravens and everybody seemed to conclude for some reason that Pittsburgh was the biggest threat to New England, despite the fact that Tom Brady has owned the Steelers and has struggled with (relatively speaking) the Ravens throughout his career.
In November, HHSR wrote an article about what type of team is capable of beating the Patriots in the playoffs— the only remaining team that shared the necessary characteristics (a physical defense that can create turnovers, a ball-controlled offense that has the ability to play with a lead and a supremely confident group of players and coaches) is Baltimore. The Ravens dismantled the Steelers last week in large part due to their ability to rush the quarterback, sacking Ben Roethlisberger five times. The performance of the Pats offensive line will be paramount in this game— if they keep Brady clean, the game should be theirs. Beyond that, BMore has that “supreme confidence” about them coming off this win, especially after Joe Flacco just won his seventh road playoff game, two more than any other QB in league history. Flacco is 5-0 with 13 TDs and 0 INTs in his last five postseason contests, which is why everybody is now of the belief the best regular season team in the NFL this year should be shaking in their cleats.
Everybody? Yes, everybody— too many people in fact.
The NFL is a zig-zag league. Whenever the people think they have something figured out, we see the opposite on Sundays. The Patriots have sat back for a week and listened to everybody saying how the Ravens have their number and how they aren’t afraid of winning a playoff game at Gillette after doing it two times in recent history, completely ignoring the fact that Brady has won twice as many games as he’s lost in his career against the Ravens. They’re also bypassing the fact that this is the most talented (especially on defense) and healthiest Patriots team since the Pats perfect season of 2007.
Specifically, Rob Gronkwoski is 100%. Arguably the best skill position player in football, Gronk is entering the playoffs healthy for the first time since his rookie season of 2010! All those other years when New England was losing to the Ravens or Broncos in the AFC Championship or the Giants in the Super Bowl, New England was playing without their best player not named Tom Brady!
And in case you forgot…
The Pats must find a way to throw it deep on occasion just to prevent the Ravens from keeping everything in front of them and splattering receivers over the middle. Overall though, the Patriots have been too locked in to blow this opportunity on a Ravens team that only made the playoffs because the Chargers lost in Week 17— a Ravens team that is now without Ray Lewis, Ed Reed and Anquan Boldin. This New England team won four of five games against playoff teams during the season, winning those four by a combined 162-67. This game should be close, but don’t be shocked when the Patriots win going away.
Carolina Panthers (4) at Seattle Seahawks (1)
You can’t win em all.
In retrospect, the decision to pick the Cardinals over the Panthers was silly. But there was no way to see Ryan Lindley was THAT bad…
Okay, there were some signs dude was trash. But he looked like he didn’t belong anywhere near an NFL field. The Panthers decided not to allow Arizona to run the ball at all, and Lindley could barley complete a pass beyond 10 yards. The Carolina defense deserves minimal credit for holding the Cards to the fewest yards of offense by a team in playoff history. That’s really more on the Cardinals coaches and management for putting that guy and their team in a terrible position.
Sidebar: If Tim Tebow were quarterbacking the Cardinals last week, they have a damn good shot at winning that game. Dead serious.
Regardless, the Panthers are in the Divisional Round for the second straight year because they took care of business. But Cam Newton will have to be much better if they’re going to have any chance against a Seattle defense that was lights out in the second half of the season. While they aren’t forcing turnovers like they were in 2013, the Seahawks 267.1 yards and 15.9 points allowed per game were each BY FAR the lowest in the league. Cam Newton was highly unspectacular against the junior Seahawks last week at home— God only knows what he’ll look like after a cross country flight to visit The 12th Man.
If Carolina is to have any shot, it will have to be in a low scoring defensive battle. Jonathan Stewart, who has surpassed “fantasy zombie” and has advanced to “regular zombie” status, will need to have a huge game, and Newton most protect the football. But the likelihood that this Panthers team plays mistake-free football is pretty much slim to none.
Seattle shakes off some early rust and trounces the Panthers. Carolina is not a good team— they’ll get exposed in the Pacific Northwest.
Dallas Cowboys (3) at Green Bay Packers (2)
This will probably be the highest rated game of the weekend, but it’s hard to blame fans for tuning in to what could be the second coming of The Ice Bowl. The temperatures should be in the 20’s, or less, which traditionally favors more physical teams. The Packers were unbeatable at home this year, and not only did they win, they destroyed the competition by an average of 19.3 points per contest. Of course, “Dem Boyz” are undefeated on the road, including a seven-point victory at Seattle.
.@wizkhalifa really created 2 #NFLPlayoffs anthems for 2 different franchises. How many rappers can say that?
— HipHopSportsReport (@HHSReport) January 4, 2015
The Packers and Cowboys are similar in that each have dynamic offenses with opportunistic defenses. While neither defensive unit is dominant, Green Bay lead the NFL in turnover differential and Dallas was second in the NFL in total takeaways. The turnover battle is crucial in any game, especially in the postseason, but it will be magnified in this matchup.
The Packers (unlike the Cowboys) are also good at getting after the quarterback. Unfortunately, you can’t sack the quarterback when he’s handing the ball off. Tony Romo has been on James Toney status all season (that’s lights out, boys & girls), but this game will be won or lost with DeMarco Murray, who is still nursing a broken hand. Dallas is better served playing with a lead and leaning on their authoritative ground attack. The Pack dropped games to New Orleans and Seattle this year where they were completely thrashed on the ground and Green Bay ranked in the bottom third in the league at stopping the run. Murray should find a few more running lanes this week than he did Sunday against Detroit.
Sidebar: The Packers are still missing B.J. Raji on the defensive line.
The Cowboys were in a great position to pull the upset at Lambeau Field…and that was before the news about Aaron Rodgers having a tear in his calf broke. The “slight” tear in the calf muscle is coupled with a “significant” strain. The odds on favorite for MVP has barely practiced over last two weeks and his mobility in the cold Wisconsin air will likely be diminished more than a little bit.
Rodgers doesn’t make mistakes at home. Ever. But the last time we saw Mr. Rodgers in a game, he was hobbled, collapsed on the turf after tossing a TD and was carted off the field at one point. As dangerous as the Green Bay receivers are, they need #12 to look like #12 and he simply might not be healthy enough to capitalize on a lackluster Cowboys secondary.
What you see right here is exactly what DeMarcus Ware was brought to Denver to do.
The Dallas Cowboys narrowly slip past a very good Packers team to advance to the NFC Championship Game for the first time in 19 years.
Indianapolis Colts (3) at Denver Broncos (2)
They should call this game “The Validation Bowl”.
Okay, maybe that’s a stretch. Whatever the outcome, Andrew Luck will still be winning games and taking the Indianapolis Colts to the playoffs five years from now, while Peyton Manning will be well into retirement and could be running a team à la John Elway.
Sidebar: Hopefully the Cleveland Browns.
These two teams met in Week 1 and Julius Thomas went berzerk, finding pay dirt three times in the second quarter. Indy ran the ball only 14 times, leaving Andrew Luck to chuck it 53 times (which probably had something to do with Julius going HAM in the first half). Sunday’s game will likely be a little different as the Colts got a huge game out of Boom Herron last week, 141 total yards and a TD on 22 touches. However, Boom fumbled the ball…again. T.Y. Hilton dropped several passes against the Bengals. These kinds of mistakes CANNOT happen if the Colts are going to shock the football world.
Sidebar: This right here is good news though.
Hilton specifically is the only electric skill position player the Colts have. He needs to be best pass-catcher on the field in Denver, a tall task considering the Broncos are, well, the Broncos. Before the season began, we noted that Luck was basically the only piece of this team that looked remotely “super”, and last week we said Luck needed another playoff win to keep the contrarian’s yaps shut. Phase two of “Andrew Luck’s Championship Progression” involves him winning a playoff game he’s not supposed to win. It’ll likely be on the road and it’ll likely have to come against Manning or Brady. It doesn’t HAVE to happen this year, but the sooner Luck can knock this out, the better.
Luck’s toughness and will could lead the Colts to a win, but it’s far more likely to lead the Colts (+7) to cover. While each is equally adept at rushing the QB, Denver is a far more complete football team than Indy. They used the last two weeks to get healthy (Manning and “Orange Julius” are overcoming nagging thigh and ankle issues respectively) and spent the entire second half of the season tinkering with a new run-first offense, which actually worked! It remains to be seen if Peyton is disciplined enough to stick with it because this is uncharted territory for him. As long as the chilly temperatures don’t cause him to completely meltdown as we’ve seen so many times before, Denver should pull this one out.
Of the eight quarterbacks competing this weekend, five of them have already won the Super Bowl, two others were the #1 overall pick in the NFL draft and one is Tony Romo, who is playing at an All-Pro level. Add to that the first college football playoff championship on Monday night (featuring a Heisman Trophy winning QB and a third-sting signal-caller from Cleveland, OH who has taken the country by storm) and this will easily be the best football weekend of the year.
Savor it, people. Savor it.