Let’s cut right to the chase here…
Miami Heat
What’s Hot: LeBron. Wade. Bosh. Shuttlesworth. Improving point guards. A coach with a growing confidence in his own abilities and an increasing command over his team. Three straight Finals trips. Two straight NBA championships. And Pat Riley.
What’s Not Hot: The pending free agency of LeBron (and Wade & Bosh) looming over the entire season. The lack of young talent on this team (those point guards are improving, but they’re far from great). Never legitimately addressing their issues at center. Shane Battier tipping over on every possession and calling it “defense”. Greg Oden. And Michael Beasley.
Sidebar: Until we see Greg Oden play four quarters of basketball three times in a week without his knees snapping in half like a Kit-Kat, we’ll have to put him in the “What’s Not Hot” category. Michael Beasley will remain in this category because he’s Michael Beasley. Even if he gives the Heat an occasional 25 point night, he’s still Michael Beasley.
What The Future Holds: The Heat will obviously be one of the league’s top teams once again. But LeBron will have a very difficult decision ahead of him after the season. Why? Because the writing is on the wall with this team. James, Cole and Chalmers are the only major contributors that will still be in their 20s by this year’s playoffs— and Walter Ray Allen Jr. is knocking on 40. It’s hard to imagine Dwyane Wade’s body not continuing its breakdown (or the rest of the 30 somethings on this roster). Chris Bosh averaged less that seven boards per night last season, the team amnestied Mike Miller, one of their premier crunch-time shooters and Miami basically has no draft picks in the coming years.
That said, the Heatles are still one of the elite teams this season, who will not only win this division, but will be in the conference finals looking to win it for the fourth consecutive year.
Atlanta Hawks
What’s Hot: The Hawks finally parted ways with Josh Smith, and yes, this made the “What’s Hot” category. Nothing against J Smoove, he’s a fine player. But if the Hawks teams of the last half decade have taught us anything, it’s that you can’t seriously compete for a title unless Smith is maybe your third, but probably fourth best player. The problem is the market dictates that he be paid like your second best player. So rather than pay Smith $56M for four years, Atlanta decided to pay Paul Millsap $19M for two. When you compare the numbers (look at the last two links), this was clearly a shrewd move. They also should be getting Lou Williams back soon, who missed 43 games due to injury last year.
Sidebar: Specifically, look at their per 36 minute averages from a year ago. Atlanta basically got an equal player for half price and half the years, without all the ridiculous three-pointers.
What’s Not Hot: One of 13 new head coaches and nine (that’s right, NINE) first-time NBA head coaches, Mike Budenholzer has been tabbed as the next leader of the Hawks. He’s a long time Spurs assistant, which is good, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s destined for success. Also, the loss of Smith basically means the death of “The Highlight Factory”. You get the feeling that whatever is left of Elton Brand and DeShawn Stevenson is not enough to carry on this moniker.
What The Future Holds: It’s challenging to figure out exactly where the Hawks are going at this point. Danny Ferry came in and cleaned up a lot of the sins of the past general manager, and cleared up a pretty decent amount of cap space. ATL emerged as a dark horse destination for Dwight Howard (and) or Chris Paul, but both have since been locked into long-term deals elsewhere. They let Josh Smith walk in free agency, but signed a seven-year vet in Millsap. Are they trying to improve on the fly, or sink into the lottery? Whatever their intent, this team more than likely won’t be playing in May.
Charlotte Hornets
What’s Hot: Calling them the Charlotte Hornets! They’re still going to remain the Bobcats for one more season, but after that, it’s “Back [to] the Buzz”. Corny slogans aside, any child of the 90s will be able to appreciate the return of the Hornets to it’s rightful home.
On the court, the Horncats added one of the bigger free agent prizes of the summer, center Al Jefferson. He, along with Cody Zeller — the fourth overall pick in the draft — should do wonders for a team that was among the worst in the NBA at scoring in the paint.
What’s Not Hot: While people in Charlotte are pleased with the development of Kemba Walker, the development of Michael Kidd-Gilchrist has been slow-going. The second pick of the 2012 NBA Draft who couldn’t shoot, still cannot shoot. Per cbssports.com, MKG shot 27.2 percent from the field on jump shots as a rookie and only took nine 3-pointers, making just two. Even with the addition of Jefferson, there’s still an overwhelming lack of talent here, which will be a lot for new coach Steve Clifford to handle (Clifford being Charlotte’s third coach since the 2011-12 season).
Sidebar: Michael Jordan still owns this team, which if you ask Chamillionaire, is not hot at all.
What The Future Holds: There’s nowhere for this team to go but up, but they still can’t seem to land that top draft pick despite having the worst record in the NBA (seemingly) year after year. They’ll get another crack at it next June.
Orlando Magic
What’s Hot: As bad as Orlando was last year, the cupboard is not bare. Tobias Harris (Orlando should be locked up for fleecing him from Milwaukee), Nikola Vucevic, Arron Afflalo and Glen Davis are all productive NBA players that could be in the Magic’s plans for the future. Then they drafted Indiana’s Victor Oladipo second overall. Despite the rough season, it was a good year for GM Rob Hennigan, who basically won the Dwight Howard trade.
What’s Not Hot: Orlando still has that beautiful new arena and nobody worth seeing playing in it (Oladipo is dope, but let’s agree this team probably won’t lead the NBA in attendance). It’s like letting Trinidad James rhyme over a DJ Premier beat. The sheer waste just makes you sick to your stomach.
What The Future Holds: Lot’s of young pieces, a young coach and a young GM means this team will struggle once again, although by design. They have some money coming off the books and will again have a high pick in a loaded draft. The future is bright in Orlando.
Washington Wizards
“John, we just gave you a max deal and the keys to the franchise. Think you can handle it?”
What’s Hot: John Wall and Bradley Beal will battle Curry/Thompson and Irving/Waiters for the best young backcourt in the league honors. The Wizards look ready to take the next step— and if you were skeptical before, yesterday’s trade for Marcin Gortat and Shannon Brown (and others) should prove they are serious. They also brought in local fan favorite Otto Porter Jr. via the draft to give them some much needed perimeter defense and to solidify their youth movement.
What’s Not Hot: If you were a GM and you had to make a list of players in the league that probably should get a max contract, but you’d be shook to death to hand them the pen to sign it, John Wall might be at the top of that list. An often underrated player but not without glaring flaws, Wall was given an $80M extension over five years this summer by the Wiz. It was the right decision, but Wall has no choice but to become “The Man” and translate his incredible physical gifts into W’s, something he’s yet to do.
Wall needs to stay healthy. He needs to learn how to shoot…like, today (he shoots under 42.5% from the field for his career and once shot 7.1% on threes for an entire season!). He can’t let guys like Curry and Irving leave him in the dust in the “Best PG in the league” debate. And he needs to learn how to become a leader and how to win games down the stretch. Is Wall mature enough to handle this money and this responsibility?
What The Future Holds: Washington looks like a playoff team and the only team in this division capable of coming with 25 games of the Heat in the standings. Expect this unit to have an exciting season before getting bounced in the first round of the playoffs, a much needed learning experience for any squad looking to make the leap.
Eastern Conference Playoff Teams (in no particular order): Miami Heat, Detroit Pistons, Cleveland Cavaliers, Chicago Bulls, Indiana Pacers, Brooklyn Nets, Washington Wizards, New York Knicks.
Last year, HHSR hit on seven of eight of our preseason playoff picks in the East. If we can hit seven or better this time around (Toronto could sneak in), we’ll see a much more exciting playoffs— hopefully with way fewer injuries.
We all know Miami is gunning for their third straight title (I refuse to pay you royalties, Pat Riley), something only three teams have done since 1967— the Bulls twice in the ’90s and the Lakers in the ’00s. But since 1967, only two teams have won their conference championship four straight years— the Lakers ’82-’85 and Celtics ’84-’87. If the Heat want to win “not one, not two…” but three championships in a row, they’ll have to do both, something that hasn’t been done in the NBA in nearly 50 years.
That’s a lot of history to bet against, so we won’t do it.
Eastern Conference Champion: Chicago Bulls
Even though we picked Miami to repeat and they were in fact the best team, the Heat caught a ton of breaks last season. Every contender in the East had serious injuries that kept their star players out of the lineup in the playoffs, except Miami. And if you recall Game 6 of the Finals, the Heat really had no business winning it. If you play out the final 30 seconds of regulation nine more times, the Heat probably lose the game nine times.
Miami is great. But they’re not unbeatable. And as of now, it’d be difficult to call them arguably the best NBA team of the last five decades. Nobody is saying they can’t do it, but history suggests something will derail them.
You can practically bank on Brooklyn’s rookie coach will hold them back. You can make a strong case for the Pacers, but it’s hard to tell whether or not Indiana actually believes they could beat Miami in a series. They had em down twice, and let em back up both times. Although the Pacers do have the formula, the confidence need to get the job done has never been seen in their eyes.
That leaves Chicago, who might still be a player away, but maybe they can acquire that player. More importantly, it’s easy to believe in their head coach, their star player and their heart.
Maybe this time the Bulls get lucky and stay healthy. Maybe the Heat themselves have some bad luck with injuries. Maybe the free agency cloud submarines Miami’s season, just like it did to LeBron’s Cavs in 2010. And maybe Derrick Rose is the one guy with the BALLS to knock off King James.
Maybe.
To see the HHSR Atlantic Division preview, click here.
To see the HHSR Central Division, click here.