Remember this? Just a few months ago, HHSR posted an article on why this NBA season was basically the wackest season in 15 years. I stand wholeheartedly behind that piece at the time it was written…but things done changed.
Since then, the Indiana Pacers have spiraled into the dumpster, yet miraculously clung to the top seed in the East. The Miami Heat coasted, and I mean COASTED, down the stretch and eased into the two seed. The Grizzlies jumped into the West playoffs and the Suns fell out. Russell Westbrook is back. So too is Marc Gasol, J.J. Redick, Paul Pierce, Deron Williams and Kawhi Leonard. Patrick Beverley got hurt AND came back. And even though the same five or so teams are still the only realistic contenders, the NBA playoffs are setting up to be as intense and exciting as they’ve always been.
So how does HHSR see the playoffs shaking out??? Please, read on.
Eastern Conference
Prior to the season, we had the Chicago Bulls walking away with the crown in the East. Of course, that was back when Derrick Rose was healthy and Luol Deng was on the roster. Needless to say, this pick should be modified at this point. It wasn’t so much that the belief was Chicago was better than Miami, as much as it was a case of fatigue and attrition.
As stated in our preseason article, “we all know Miami is gunning for their third straight title (I refuse to pay you royalties, Pat Riley), something only three teams have done since 1967— the Bulls twice in the ’90s and the Lakers in the ’00s. But since 1967, only two teams have won their conference championship four straight years— the Lakers ’82-’85 and Celtics ’84-’87. If the Heat want to win ‘not one, not two…’ but three championships in a row, they’ll have to do both, something that hasn’t been done in the NBA in nearly 50 years. That’s a lot of history to bet against, so we won’t do it.”
Again, this was written under the assumption Rose would last the entire season and Indiana wouldn’t be submerged in mediocrity coming down the stretch. Knowing this, Miami’s stiffest competition might actually come from the Brooklyn Nets. The Nets though will have to first get past a young upstart in the form of the Toronto Raptors, a team that shocked most of the league by winning the Atlantic Division. Toronto’s trio of energetic guards, Kyle Lowry, Terrance “51” Ross and leading scorer DeMar DeRozan, will look to speed up the tempo against an older Brooklyn team.
BK looks to utilize their VAST advantage in the experience department. As inexperienced as Jason Kidd is as a coach, he did play in 158 playoff games as a player, winning a title in 2011. And the Nets anticipated starting lineup for this series as the edge in career playoff games played over the Raptors…are you ready for this?… 399-24! Toronto is a legit playoff team, but expect the Nets to move on primarily for this reason.
Young teams don’t last very long in the NBA playoffs— history has told us this time and again. This fact will also come back to bite the Wizards of Washington. A young team that we had making the jump before the season, the Wiz’s chances will hinge heavily on the performance of their young stars in the making John Wall and Bradley Beal. Call it a trite analysis if you must, but the Wizards are facing a battle tested Bulls team with one of the top four coaches in the league on its bench. Washington’s two leading scorers have never been here and are only 23 and 20 years of age. Expect Tom Thibodeau to whip up a gameplan that slows down the electric Wall and forces him into a jump-shooter, something he hasn’t proven he can do constantly (although he’s improved).
Sidebar: I was buying John Wall stock when most were selling it not too long ago, and he was spectacular this season. Washington’s time is coming.
Both the Heat and Pacers will end up working harder in the first round than probably either team anticipated back at the All-Star break, however for very different reasons. As previously mentioned, Miami has intentionally taken their foot all the way off the gas. They’ve gone out of their way to shield Dwyane Wade from overuse in preparation for the playoffs, yet they’ve had no problem running LeBron James into the ground. Still, I can’t help but wonder how LBJ feels about that.
Dwyane Wade is out again today. I almost feel bad for LeBron the way he’s forced to carry this team every night while Wade rests up.
— HipHopSportsReport (@HHSReport) April 6, 2014
With that being the case, I’ve pegged Dwyane Wade as THE X FACTOR of these entire NBA playoffs. When he’s played, Wade has quietly been great this season. Though he’s averaging a career-low in minutes per game, he’s averaging a career-high in field goal percentage (those two facts not necessarily mutually exclusive). But W.O.W. appeared in just 54 games, and though he averaged a respectable 19 points and 4.5 rebounds & assists per night, nobody knows what condition he’ll be in coming into these playoffs. How will Wade make his impact felt and lighten the load of LeBron (and Bosh), without completely disrupting whatever offensive rhythm Miami already had? It’s up to the Heat to figure all this out before they (potentially) face Brooklyn in the second round, a team that beat them four times in the regular season and purposefully tanked the last few games of the year so they could face Miami in round two.
Wade has to stay healthy AND be his normal dynamic self in order for Miami to win the title, but they can get to the Finals even if he’s not quite at that level. It should definitely be enough for them to advance past a gritty, well-coached Charlotte Bobcats team. Charlotte could steal a game here though, and expect Al Jefferson to punish the tiny Miami Heat at least once.
By now, the Indiana Pacers should be receiving assistance from FEMA. Indy was 8-10 in the month of March (the month when playoff teams really try to get serious), after having the league’s best record for much of the season. They signed Andrew Bynum, who barely played and has already been ruled out for their first round playoff matchup against the sub .500 Atlanta Hawks. They also traded away Danny Granger — whom some will tell you was their heart and soul of their team — at the deadline for Evan Turner. In case you’re wondering, this is still the only significant play ET has made at Bankers Life Fieldhouse.
While texting with a buddy of mine a few weeks ago, he floated a theory that perhaps the Pacers had simply hit the wall. After going HAM the first 3.5 months of the season, they might have simply run out of gas. This is entirely possible, although it could also be that this Pacers team was built more on chemistry and cohesion, even more than just talent and once that chemistry was compromised, things began to fall apart. Or maybe it’s just that Paul George (and to a lesser extent Lance Stephenson) came crashing back to earth as the law of averages took over. In any case, the Pacers must right the ship ASAP.
The good news here is 1) Indy has homecourt throughout the East playoffs 2) they’re healthy and 3) they should be able to find their poise before they reach Miami. Still, the disappearance of Roy Hibbert has also been alarming, to say the least. With that said, Atlanta should not pose much of a threat to Indiana. Surprisingly, the Hawks are second in the NBA in assists, but they’re near the bottom of the NBA in rebounding (Al Horford’s injury played a role in this), a statistic the Pacers have thrived at the last several years. This is a great opportunity for Hibbert to build up his confidence heading into a significantly tougher matchup with HHSR’s Defensive Player of the Year Joakim Noah and the Bulls.
Sidebar: It should be noted that the Pacers are still statistically the best defensive team in the NBA. And, you know, there’s that whole “defense wins championships” thing. Despite their recent issues, they should go pretty far.
Miami and Indiana have been on a collision course since…well, since Game 7 of the East Finals last year. Chicago and Brooklyn are both formidable, but the Bulls simply do not have enough fire power win two playoff series, even though they won’t have to score much to keep up with the Pacers. The Pacers should win an extremely physical six-game series. Meanwhile, Miami has struggled with Brooklyn this year, but are they a legitimate threat to you, LeBron?
So there’s that.
The Nets have length on the perimeter, which has bothered the Heat, and are a team that is built for the playoffs that ain’t afraid of the Heat. They also have Jay Z and the Illuminati in their back pocket (definitely a joke). But it’s hard to see the best player in the world going out in round two after winning consecutive NBA titles. It’s also hard to imagine the Heat going down to a team that was once 10-21 on the season. Pierce and Kevin Garnett are such a prideful duo and will make Miami work, but we should still see an Eastern Conference Finals rematch from 2013.
Will all the mileage the Heat have racked up the last four seasons, watching them struggle though the playoffs this year should be a treat for fans, particularly for fans that loathe the Heatles. The problem is, there still isn’t a real threat to them in this conference. The Bulls, Nets and Pacers are all incredibly flawed and aren’t equipped to take advantage of a Heat team that may be ripe for the picking. The Pacers will be able to really beat up the Heat from a physicality standpoint, but the way they’ve handled being on top for just three months show’s that this Pacers group still is not mentally ready to knock off a championship team like Miami.
In the preseason, I said I didn’t believe the eyes of the Indiana Pacers, even though they came close to knocking off the incumbent last spring. Unfortunately, that opinion hasn’t changed. Therefore the Eastern Conference Champion pick is officially change to the Miami Heat, who will (somehow) reach their fourth consecutive NBA Finals.
Western Conference
It’s been a well known fact for some time that the NBA’s big boys play out West. Sadly, this lack of balance has resulted in a very talented Phoenix Suns team be left on the outside of the playoffs. But the eight teams that survived the West this season have the capability of authoring one of the most memorable NBA playoffs in recent years.
Perhaps the most confounding first round matchup is between the four seed Rockets and the five seed Trail Blazers. They each finished with a 54-28 record, but Houston won the season series 3-1 and thus gets home court advantage to start. Blazers power forward LaMarcus Aldridge torched the Rockets for 26.8 points and 15.5 rebounds per game in their four contests earlier this year. To be fair though, there wasn’t much defense played on either side in the four games. James Harden dropped 41 points in their last meeting in early March. Dwight Howard was also solid in each contest, including a 32 point, 17 rebound performance in December.
The Rockets inability to stop any perimeter threat is a real problem, and if it doesn’t undo their championship aspirations in the second round against San Antonio, it will likely be because Portland go to them first. James Harden is widely considered a top 10 player in the league but his defense is…well, I can’t think of a worse word than deplorable. Don’t believe me? Just watch!
The fact that this video even exists is reason enough to make me cringe. Then I pressed play and nearly tossed my laptop out the window. I would say that maybe his beard is slowing him down, but the clean-shaven Jeremy Lin ain’t much better. It’s Patrick Beverley (who may not even be healthy) or bust defensively, which is why coach Kevin McHale moved him into the starting lineup ahead of Lin. Blazer Damian Lillard’s defense also leaves much to be desired. The result: an extremely high scoring series that could easily go seven.
Given Portland’s multiple perimeter threats (including classic playoff choke artist Mo Williams— the pressure is off now so he should be better) and a general gut feeling, the Blazers are the pick to advance.
As mentioned, they should play a Spurs team that was our preseason pick to reach the Finals out of the West. The playoff draw for San Antonio is an interesting one, as they first link up with their old enemy, the Dallas Mavericks, in the first round, and then get the winner of the Rockets/Blazers series. The one team that’s given the old Spurs the most trouble this year has been Oklahoma City, but they’re in the opposite bracket, as are the Memphis Grizzlies, who shocked the Spurs in the first round a few years ago. San Antonio will take their chances with a good, but far from great, Mavs team. They swept the season series and should do close to the same in the playoffs. And neither the Rockets or Blazers are experienced, disciplined or talented enough to handle the rested and ready excellence of execution that is the Spurs.
As you may recall, the Thunder and Grizzlies met in the second round last year. The Grizz prevailed, but Russell Westbrook missed the series after tearing a ligament in his knee. Well, he’s healthy now and Memphis will have to feel his wrath (I say “wrath” because Westbrook is psychotic on the basketball court). Oklahoma City’s biggest problem is they don’t have enough consistent scoring outside of Westbrook and soon-to-be MVP Kevin Durant. Coach Scotty Brooks has not done enough to develop some of the other young players on this team, and have in fact stunted the growth of Jeremy Lamb and Perry Jones III with the midseason addition of Caron Butler, who might just be washed up.
Memphis will throw bodies at Kevin Durant — Tony Allen, Tayshaun Prince and the like — to make him work for his points. If they can somehow manage to turn him into a volume scorer, they’ll have a shot. On the flip side, OKC will throw Kendrick Perkins at the physical Memphis front line. This could backfire though, as this strategy consequently means extensive minutes for Kendrick Perkins.
And Kendrick Perkins stinks.
The Thunder will win this series strictly off of talent, but how much will they have left in the tank after getting knocked around for as many as six or seven games? They’ll quickly have to switch up and limp into the second round against either a high-octane Clippers team or a high-octane Warriors team.
Clippers/Warriors is easily the most exciting first round series. These are two of the four most entertaining teams in the league and both are good enough to make at least the second round. The injury to Andrew Bogut though will severely hurt Golden State’s chances of making a deep run. They don’t have the size or athleticism up front to handle Blake Griffin and rebounding/dunk machine DeAndre Jordan without him. Knowing this, the Warriors must go smaller, and will have to use their quickness to dictate the tempo.
Speaking of Blake and DeAndre, it was the expected development of these two players that caused HHSR to predict the Clippers would make the 2013 Finals. It didn’t happen last year, and despite the arrival of Doc Rivers and the improved play of Blake & DeAndre this year, the Clippers never got the third big man they really needed. Rivers has given significant minutes to Big Baby Davis and Hedo Turkoglu at center and power forward.
Big Baby Davis and Hedo Turkoglu?! REALLY!?!?!
That ain’t gonna cut it in the postseason. What happens if Blake has an off night? What happens if DeAndre gets in foul trouble? What happens if one of them gets hurt or Blake gets kicked out of a game? The Clippers should be able to win this series in six or seven games, but in the words of Walter White, they had better tread lightly. It won’t take much for Steph Curry to light up Staples like Kobe.
Sidebar: The Clips also give a ton of minutes to Darren Collison, a decent player who often can’t seem to get out of his own way. Watch him closely. Every time he makes a good play, he’ll make a boneheaded one within two minutes. It’s a scientific fact.
Earlier, it was said that Dwyane Wade is the X factor in these playoffs. But if there’s one player who needs to make a deep run in the postseason to solidify their place as one of the game’s elite, it’s Chris Paul.
This is Paul’s third year in LA— his third year playing with an elite teammate in Griffin. The Clippers went out and acquired an A1 coach for him, and have made several acquisitions either at Paul’s request, or with his specific benefit in mind (like trading for Redick and Jared Dudley, the man who inexplicably forgot how to play basketball this season, when they really needed another big). He’s now in his eighth NBA season. Most (myself included) believe Paul is a top 5 player in the association, or higher, and is one of the game’s great clutch performers. And although he played on a couple of pretty lousy New Orleans teams that he dragged to the playoffs, his career postseason record is 16-24 coming into this year and he’s never made it beyond the second round. His team is healthy and a three-seed in the West. It’s time to deliver.
I believe in Chris Paul and his ability in late game situations. But if he doesn’t get the Clippers to at least the conference finals this year, the whispers about him will soon grow louder.
CP3 is one of the sharpest minds and the NBA, and more than likely, he’s aware of all of this. It’s part of the reason why I believe the Clippers will defeat the Thunder in seven games in the second round. Even though Durant is the MVP of the league, he already made it to the Finals when he was 23. Paul is almost 29 and his body has been banged up a bit. Most likely, his opportunities won’t be as plentiful down the road. The time is now for CP3 to make a run.
The Clippers are athletic enough and matchup well enough with the Thunder to give them problems. LA also has a deeper bench and Doc Rivers has an advantage over Scotty Brooks on the sideline. Those reasons, and Oklahoma City’s occasionally disjointed offense will ultimately be their undoing.
The Spurs fear no team. But I bet they’d rather not want to see KD and the OKC Thunder.
A Spurs/Clippers conference finals would be highly entertaining. San Antonio is one of two teams (Memphis) that seems to know how to constantly take away lobs from Lob City. San Antonio knows how to turn LA into a half court team, which the Clips would prefer not to be. If San Antonio’s old legs can somehow manage to stay healthy and fresh, which Gregg Popovich has once again been masterfully preparing for, San Antonio should escape and make another NBA Finals. But if the Thunder gets by the Clippers, the Spurs may be in trouble.
Watching playoff basketball is always a pleasure, but watching the San Antonio Spurs play playoff basketball feels like a privilege. Whenever you count them out, they bounce back. When you call them too old, they throw up 120 points. I’m not the first person to do it, but I’ve likened the Spurs to the NBA’s version of the New England Patriots. I feel like Tom Brady should’ve won his fourth ring by now based on how competitive the Pats have been since he won his third. I feel the same way about the Spurs since they won their fourth title in 2007.
They probably should’ve won it all last year, but in 2014 San Antonio has proven that there’s still some sand left in the ‘ole hourglass. We picked Tim Duncan and the Spurs to win it all one more time before the season and we’ll stick with it, even though knocking off LeBron and the Heat will be much tougher than defeating Derrick Rose and the Bulls would’ve been. But it’s hard to trust Dwyane Wade more than I trust that machine down in San Antonio. If Wade balls out in the playoffs leading up to the Finals, I may seriously regret this pick. But for now, I’ll stick with history.
It’s been nearly FIFTY YEARS since a team won their conference four straight years AND won three straight championships in the process. It just doesn’t happen in the modern NBA.
Something will derail the Miami Heat…right?