The AFC predictions went up on Monday evening, so let’s dive right into the NFC.
NFC East Champion: New York Giants
While the rest of the country gets colder late in the year, the Giants have made a living off of heating up in November and December, and carrying that momentum to Super Bowl Championships. Like many teams, as their quarterback goes, so goes the Giants. In all fairness, Eli Manning’s inconsistencies have hampered the G-Men from reaching their full potential. In fact, their may be no team that mirrors the success of their QB more than the Giants. Eli was a MONSTER in the 4th quarter of games last year, having one of the great clutch seasons in NFL History (It feels very weird to use the phrase “clutch season”. Appropriate, but still weird). It’s no coincidence that in games decided by 5 points or less, the Giants sported a tidy 7-1 record in the 2011 season, including the wins in the NFC Championship game and the Super Bowl.
Can they duplicate this championship run? Absolutely. But first things first: Eli Manning needs to be ready to take the next step into quarterback lore, and it starts with consistency. In his first playoff game after winning the Super Bowl in 2008, Manning was terrible against the Eagles (15-29 169 yards, 0 TDs 2 INTs in a home loss). In 2010, he threw a league-high 25 interceptions and until last year had never won another playoff game since his first Super Bowl.
Nobody thought this would happen again at the start of last season, so who will be the NFC’s breakthrough team in 2012?
The Giants swag has to be on one billion right now. They know they can beat any team, anywhere. I see Tom Coughlin’s crew building off of last season and winning this division by at least two games. But it starts and ends with Eli— I think he’s up to the challenge.
Sidebar: I cannot overlook the fact that the Giants typically don’t play well with expectations. So with more and more people picking them to perform well this year, they’ll probably wind up 9-7, praying that another team takes an L in the 4:25 game in week 17 so they can successfully complete their Moonwalk into the playoffs.
The Redskins have the exciting Robert Griffin III in the fold and will be better, but they are not ready for to deal with the likes of the Giants or Eagles. Philadelphia will need Michael Vick to stay in one piece for more than 12 games to have any shot at a playoff spot. They have the best running back in the league in Shady McCoy, and after last season’s disappointment, they’re playing without the “Dream Team” baggage that weighed them down like the Stone of Triumph (Nice going, Vince Young). Seeing how the Iggles respond to the challenges facing head coach Andy Reid (the death of his son during training camp and a harsh threat from ownership) will be fascinating.
Oh wait, did I forget to mention the Dallas Cowboys?
Yeah, I did. The Cowboys are scary because they’re as talented as any team in football, yet they can spontaneously combust faster than you can wish Jerry Jones would just knock it off already. For God sakes, their star receiver (allegedly) attacked his mother this summer! Miles Austin has been hexed with an eternal hamstring injury, DeMarcus Ware is banged up, Jason Witten’s spleen I believe is still somewhere on the field in Oakland, DeMarco Murray is coming off of a broken ankle and Tony Romo is…still Tony Romo. All kidding aside, Romo is a better quarterback than most realize, but he’s prone to making critical mistakes in big moments and he’s battled some injury issues of his own.
Dallas could surprise the world and go 12-4, but in the past they’ve had less questions and more talent, and still failed to deliver. While they have the ability, I’d be surprised if they made the playoffs. Too bad they aren’t in the AFC.
NFC North Champion: Green Bay Packers
Watching the Pack mow down the whole league last year was frightening— this season won’t be much different. Green Bay will have some difficult games on the slate (including four within their division, games at the Giants and at the Texans, and home against the Saints and 49ers), but their superior offensive machine will carry them through most of these contests. The question is whether or not their historically bad defense will return to its Super Bowl form of two years ago. Like the Patriots in the AFC, the Pack went straight to business in the draft, selecting defensive players with their first six picks (including three in the first two rounds). They’ll need to be able to generate a pass rush, as the Cheese-Its saw their sack total drop by 18 last year from 2010.
While they brought in veteran center Jeff Saturday, the Packers parted ways with oft-injured Pro Bowlers Chad Clifton and Nick Collins. They did not, however, release Aaron Rodgers this summer.
Smart move.
The Packers defensive woes from last season are still a point of concern and while Cedric Benson is an upgrade over James Starks, the Pack still have virtually no running game to speak of at this moment. With a questionable defense and suspect running game, you wonder if they’ll have enough to offset a poor game from Rodgers at the wrong time, which was their undoing last season. The Patriots survived a poor game from Brady in the AFC title game against Baltimore; I’m not sure if the Packers can survive the that type of game from Rodgers again and Ted Thompson shouldn’t be putting that much pressure on his star QB anyway.
The AFC North will be a competitive division this season (No thanks to the Vikings. As long as AD is not 100%, they have virtually no chance at winning more than five games). The days of the winless Detroit Lions are loooong gone. That team is loaded with potential. However, not only are they talented at finding the end zone, the Lions are talented at finding John Law. Detroit still needs to shake their immaturity issues before they take the next step, especially in this division.
The Chicago Bears on the other hand, are poised to take the next step. While they don’t have the cashe´ of the Packers, they have all of the tools necessary to make a run.
NFC South Champion: Atlanta Falcons
Yet another competitive division in the NFC. The Falcons officially have balance on the offensive side of the ball, so long as Michael Turner doesn’t stall out on em, with Roddy White and Julio Jones flanking Matt Ryan. ATL took to the draft to improve the offensive line and can now move forward with this young core group on offense (you know, except Michael Turner).
I’m just sayin…(thanks to the good people at Sports Illustrated for illustrating my point)
Sidebar: I saw Michael Turner play in person in back 2003 we he led Northern Illinois into Doyt Perry Stadium to take on the Bowling Green Falcons (BGSU won the game by the way). He was known as Michael “Burner” Turner in those days. To watch him now, you’d never think he was EVER associated with anything fast. If anything he reminds me of The Crystal Ship from Breaking Bad. Old, slow, not pretty to watch run, always appearing to be on its last legs, yet weirdly effective and mostly reliable despite having been run into the ground literally and figuratively. This is no dig on him, I think he’s a good player, he just looks really slow and overweight on the field and he’s had a ton of carries the last several years.
Defensively, they resigned John Abraham and brought in Asante Samuel to help solidify the secondary. Atlanta will be right back in the postseason again and and should make some noise this time around. Although, I still do not fully trust this defense and the Falcons in general seems to lack the championship resolve ultimately needed to get the job done. Not sure if this can be learned though. The Giants have IT, Atlanta didn’t last year in the playoffs and it showed.
The New Orleans Saints, meanwhile, have had such a tumultuous summer, it’s hard to imagine they’ll compete for a division title this season. Most teams require some sort of an adjustment period when there is a coaching change; the Saints are basically going through three coaching changes in a year after Bounty-Gate (Sean Payton to Joe Vitt‚ to Aaron Kromer since Vitt is being suspended the first six games of the season, then back to Vitt). That’s just too much for any team to deal with, even a good one like the Saints. Plus they’re still fighting the bounty case…no thanks.
Carolina has become a sexy pick to make some noise this season. And why not? Cam Newton is the real deal and the Panthers drafted Luke Kuechly in the first round of the draft, a trendy Defensive Rookie of the Year selection. Hell, they even have linemen predicting a Super Bowl appearance! But I’m not drinking that much of the Kool-Aid just yet. Cam Newton got off to a red hot start in 2011, but faded down the stretch. I need to see more. I also need to know he won’t break his neck plunging in the end zone from one yard out. I actually think a pretty competitive fight will break out for second place in this division with Tampa Bay in the mix as well. Josh Freeman can’t possibly repeat last season’s GAH-BAGE performance, can he? Can he? That had to be some sort of sick joke.
NFC West Champion: San Fransisco 49ers
It took me less time to select an NFC West Champ than any other NFC division. Not enough significant strides were made by the Seahawks, Cardinals and Rams this summer.
I’m still not sold that Sam Bradford will turn into anything in the NFL (I was skeptical of him when he was still at Oklahoma) and the hiring of Jeff Fisher will help, but he’s been an overrated head coach for years. He’s good, but not great. So let’s not act like he’ll turn the Rams all the way around in one season. Improvement is on the horizon for St. Louis nonetheless.
Arizona did not name a starting quarterback until 30 seconds ago and the season starts on Sunday. Not good. The worst part is Ken Whisenhunt was debating between a scrub and a scrub for the job. Poor Larry Fitzgerald.
You get the feeling that Seattle is going to be extremely fun to watch this season. Pete Carroll allowed a rook to win the starting QB job (which was quite refreshing; Russell Wilson legitimately WON that job). They also have an improving defense and that weird home field advantage on their side (This will come in handy for games against New England, Dallas and Green Bay. Seattle can steal one of those). None of this will offset the Niners and their dominant defense though, but Seattle will fight for a wildcard spot.
Has Alex Smith finally turned the corner? Who knows. But he’ll have every opportunity to now with new weapons all over the place (Mario Manningham, Randy Moss, LaMichael James, Brandon Jacobs etc.). Pair that with Vernon Davis, Mike Crabtree, Ted Ginn Jr. and Frank Gore and San Fran has a surreptitiously explosive offense. No excuses Alex Smith. Time to do something wacky and string together consecutive good seasons.
NFC Wild Card Teams: Chicago Bears, Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles are in “backs against the wall” mode in 2012. Andy Reid’s job is on the line, Vick’s contract is hanging in the balance and the team is trying to put years of underachievement behind them. Minus the lofty expectations of last year, I think they pull through and grab a wildcard spot. They still have an insane amount of talent at the skill positions and they’re now playing (believe it or not) somewhat under the radar.
I love teams flying under the radar— these are the teams that consistently make big jumps in the NFL. For example, the Giants and Packers both were inches away from missing the playoffs in 2011 and 2010 respectively, yet the both made it in…then went on an Bo Jackson-like run to win the Super Bowl. Once they got into the postseason, people believed they could win, however they were far from the favorites.
With that said…
NFC Champion: Chicago Bears
Relax, let me walk you through it.
As we know, the NFC is kind of a crap shot. You have your elite favorites (Giants, Packers, under normal circumstances the Saints) and several talented, if not really good teams (Falcons, 49ers, Cowboys, Eagles, Lions and Bears) and a couple sleeper teams ([depending on who you talk to] Panthers, Seahawks, Bucs). Even if you eliminate the sleepers, that’s nine teams that could realistically make the Super Bowl, which is over half of the conference for those scoring at home.
A look back at recent history shows you that any team that makes it into the pool of six can emerge from this conference.
In 2011, the Super Bowl Champion Giants were a 9-7 wildcard team that held the fourth seed, which meant they hosted one playoff game and then won two on the road to make the Super Bowl (they also followed basically the same exact blueprint in 2007).
The 2010 Super Bowl Champion Packers were 10-6, which was only good enough for the sixth seed. This meant they had to vanquish three opponents on the road in order to get to the big dance. Both New York and Green Bay knocked off the the one and two seeds in the process.
All this is to say that in today’s NFC, you can basically throw the seedings out the window. So while the concept of having the Bears in the Super Bowl may sound far fetched, it’s really only as far fetched as the idea of them making the playoffs (which isn’t hard to believe at all), especially since head coach Lovie Smith and Brian Urlacher knows what it takes to win the NFC.
By the way, that #2 seed the Packers knocked off on their Super Bowl run… was the Chicago Bears! The Chi is only a year and a half removed from an NFC title game appearance. While the Bears were only 8-8 last year, their record is misleading. Chicago was off to a 7-3 start (including blowout wins over Atlanta and Detroit), but Jay Cutler broke his thumb and needed season ending surgery after week 11. The Bears would then drop five straight with Caleb Hanie under center and would slide out of the playoff picture. It didn’t help that Pro Bowl running back Matt Forte missed six games as well.
Sidebar: In those six starts, Hanie completed only 50% of his passes and threw just 3 TDs to nine INTs for a 41.8 passer rating. They would’ve been better off just direct snapping to Devin Hester 45 times a game.
Does the reunion of Brandon Marshall and Jay Cutler mean a Super Bowl appearance for Chicago? Don’t sleep on this dark horse.
Thankfully for Chicagoins, Cutler is healthy, Hanie is gone and they even have a serviceable backup now, Jason Campbell. They also have a more than serviceable backup running back in the form of Michael Bush, who is a big upgrade over Marion Barber. New general manager Phil Emery also went out and drafted defensive end Shea McClellin from Boise State and wide receiver Alshon Jeffery (a big target with terrific hands) with their first two picks in the 2012 Draft. Emery then went out and traded for Brandon Marshall, the first legitimate big-play receiver Cutler has had during his time in Chicago. The Bears won’t have to wait long for Marshall and Cutler to build a chemistry together though, since they played together in Denver for three years and had great success.
In 2007 with Cutler as his quarterback, Marshall hauled in 102 passes for a career-high 1,325 yards and seven TDs. In ’08, it was a career-high 104 receptions for 1,265 yards and six TDs, and that was when both players were young and immature. With a running game and a potent passing attack, the Bears offense should be dramatically improved.
Their defense was average at best last season, but they still have tons of leadership and a dominant pass rusher in Julius Peppers that can change a game at a moment’s notice. Da Bears should get after the quarterback quite a bit this season. Playing at Soldier Field also gives them a toughness that some teams like the Falcons, Saints, Cowboys and Lions just won’t have come January.
Lastly, when you look at veteran quarterbacks in this league that you could actually see winning a Super Bowl that hasn’t done so already, who comes to mind? Excluding first and second year QBs, my list of guys are: Rivers, Vick, Ryan, Stafford and Cutler. Flacco is a maybe and I really can’t envision Alex Smith or Matt Schaub holding up the Lombardi Trophy. I also want to include Romo on this list, but I alas…I cannot.
Sidebar: I’m aware of the Trent Dilfers and Brad Johnsons of the world, but those guys are the exceptions and not the rule. This is a passing league and it’s up to the quarterback to get you to the promise land in 2012.
Maybe it’s Cutler’s time? Eli’s time came. So did Peyton’s, Rodgers’ and Brees’.
Super Bowl Prediction: Bears defeat Patriots
It is Cutler’s time. Nobody has ever questioned his ability. It’s always been a matter of maturity, environment and health.
Sidebar: Go ahead and do a google image search for Jay Cutler. To my surprise, there are WAY more pictures of this guy than the quarterback.
I believe all the pieces are in place now for a legitimate shot at a Super Bowl. Yes, I’m going out on a limb, but the Bears have just as good a chance at pulling this off as the Packers and Giants did at the start of 2010 and 2011. Chicago’s big play ability on offense will hurt New England, and the pass rush on defense will be too much for the unstable Patriots offensive line to handle. Cutler will out-duel Brady and once again, the Patriots will come up empty playing as the favorite and in a weaker conference all year.
Those are HHSR’s predictions— think you can do better? Let’s hear it…
– Negrodamus
To read HHSR’s AFC Predictions, click here.