As you know doubt already saw, the Eastern Conference predictions went up on Monday afternoon. So we won’t waste anytime diving into our Western Conference preview and predictions.
Northwest Division Champion: Oklahoma City Thunder
What better place to start a Western Conference breakdown than with the reigning Western Conference Champions that just pulled off a blockbuster trade just last weekend?
There are so many layers to this deal and it’s ramifications in the messy Western Conference, we had to write a separate article about it. You’ll find a much more detailed analysis of the Houston and OKC swap that sent James Harden to the Rockets for Kevin Martin, Jeremy Lamb and two first round picks. It is worth noting here that the Thunder’s decision to deal Harden was mostly money driven and the positive basketball implications for the Thunder will mostly be felt in the future.
This year though, the addition of Kevin Martin and the return of Eric Maynor from injury should be enough to stem the tide of Harden’s exit as a scorer and playmaker for the second unit. The additions of rookies Jeremy Lamb and Perry Jones III will make the Thunder, an already athletic marvel of a basketball team (Kendrick Perkins notwithstanding), even longer and more athletic.
We’ve seen the Thunder grow from a scrappy young team that got bounced in round one, but still had the basketball world at their feet in 2010, to a conference finalist in 2011, to a NBA Finals team in 2012. It’s up to their two megastars Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook to work out some of their kinks if they’re going to take the final step.
Sidebar: Remember this run against the Lakers in 2010? Have you ever heard a basketball arena louder than this??
Westbrook often gets hated on by fans and pundits alike who say he shoots too much. While he does have a tendency to get carried away with his shot selection from time to time, this is mostly nonsense because the Thunder cannot win without his scoring. Furthermore, it isn’t as if Westbrook’s FGAs always impact Durant’s game. In fact, KD has won three straight scoring titles and has averaged 25, 30, 28 and 28 points per game in the four years they have been teammates. In the finals though, there seemed to be a disconnect.
These guys are like brothers…and they just lost one last Saturday night. Can they recover and make another title run this year?
While Westbrook was (in this man’s opinion) being unfairly criticized for his aggressiveness against the Heat in June, Durant looked lost out on the court at times. Despite putting up gaudy Durant-like statistics in the Finals (30.6 ppg on .548 shooting), there were periods throughout the series where KD looked more like a spectator, as if he was content with sitting back and watching the crowing of King James. It was Westbrook (appropriately nicknamed “YOLO” by a friend of mine…seriously, this is an awesome nickname for him) that stood up and said, “Oh hell no you don’t!” and played balls to the wall for 48 minutes all five games…for better or worse.
It’s clear that while Durant is the more dominant player, Westbrook is the more dominant personality. Westbrook is also the guy with the ball in his hands on every play. With Harden now gone, it’s up to Westbrook to consciously be more open to making plays for his teammates, a role Harden did very well when necessary in the past. These two stars must learn to calibrate on the highest level before they can raise their own banner. However, none of this will prevent them from winning their division, which they should run away with regardless.
The Northwest, though, is the personification of life in the Western Conference. All five of these teams would likely be playoff bound if there were in the East. Each one of these teams is capable of winning at least 35 games (roughly). Portland will most likely get squeezed out for the playoff picture as they’re in a bit of a transition mode. Although they still have LaMarcus Aldridge, a top 20 player in the league, returning from hip surgery and rookie Damian Lillard, who lit it up in summer league and preseason.
The Minnesota Timberwolves received a ton of hype this summer, but Ricky Rubio most likely won’t be back until January and Kevin Love just fractured his shooting hand two weeks ago and will be sidelined until the end of December. This team, even with the additions of Brandon Roy, Andrei Kirilenko and the maturation of Derrick Williams, simply does not have the depth to withstand injuries to their two best players. And even though Love and Rubio will be back, it will be difficult for them to dig themselves out of the hole they’ll likely have in the murderous Western Conference.
The Denver Nuggets seem to be everybody’s favorite sleeper, and with good reason. Despite losing Al Harrington and the underrated Arron Afflalo (I feel like we’ve been talking about him a lot lately), they brought in all-star and Olympic gold medalist Andre Iguodala. When construing the Indiana Pacers, Larry Bird once said that instead of going after a superstar, he wanted to build a great team with several very good players. Nuggets general manager Masai Ujiri has not only done this, he’s done a better job than Bird did (although he did start with the huge trade chip that was Carmelo Anthony). Iggy, Gallo, The Manimal, the newly signed Ty Lawson, athletic wings, a trio of seven footers and one of the best coaches in the biz; the Nuggets go nine or 10 deep and will be a problem for many teams.
Another team quietly putting together a solid roster is the Utah Jazz. Guard Alec Burks and forward Gordon Hayward are improving and the Jazz have a quartet of talented, or at least promising bigs. Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap are both in the final year of their deals, so decisions are to be made in Salt Lake City. But you know they’re both going to be gunning for that payday. So for now, the Jazz could very well sneak into the playoffs with this team.
Southwest Division Champion: San Antonio Spurs
We’ve seen this movie before; we know the Spurs are the class of this division. San Antonio has dominated the regular season of late, finishing atop the Western Conference each of the last two years. Given the landscape of this division, 2012-13 will not be much different.
There are 3 things you can count on in this world: Death, taxes and the San Antonio Spurs.
Shooting guard O.J. Mayo switched teams, but stayed in the division. It seems like his demise in Memphis had been rumored for years, but just this summer, he finally left for Dallas. The Mavericks also brought in Chris Kaman, Elton Brand and Darren Collison. As talent goes, they Mavs have certainly had better teams (they just cut Delonte West, which removes a distraction, but does deplete the backcourt). It doesn’t help matters that Dirk Nowitzki went under the knife last week to repair his knee, leaving him out for six weeks.
Sidebar: It seems as though a lot of guys have gotten hurt just before the start of the season. Yesterday, news broke that the Pacers would be without Danny Granger indefinitely due to a knee injury.
The Mavs played with fire when they broke up a championship team in an effort to acquire a big name free agent; Mark Cuban got burned. Now the Mavs are in a bit of a free-fall mode. They’re gambling on bigs like Kamen and Brand to pan out, but Kaman is already in the trainers room and Brand has a host of injuries on his resume´. I’m having a hard time seeing this team even making the playoffs. I know it’s only for the time being, but this headline tells you all you need to know about the current state of the Dallas Mavericks.
Sidebar: I know Curry didn’t start last night, but the fact that is was even being considered is pretty ridiculous.
After losing Jason Terry, Dirk Diggler will have to be in MVP form if he’s going to carry this team to the playoffs upon his return.
Meanwhile, Memphis made no significant additions to a team that was bounced in the first round by the Clippers last season. I was (seemingly) one of the few non-believes in the Grizzlies last year— everybody was on them, the hype got a little carried away though. Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph go hard in the paint, no doubt, and we saw great strides from Mike Conley Jr. last season, but this team did not resolve its scoring issues in the offseason. In fact, the loss of Mayo magnifies that problem. The only hope the Grizz have of even getting back to what they were last year, will be if Josh Selby’s Bernard King-like summer league was legit and will transfer to the regular season. The only key addition Memphis made this offseason was when Peyton Manning, Penny Hardaway and Justin Timberlake bought the team. And as hilarious as that last sentence is, it won’t help the team any come April.
As stated in our piece on the Harden trade, Houston basically has a whole new roster. And while guys like Chandler Parsons and Patrick Patterson have made an impression on some, this team, even with Harden does not have nearly enough firepower to contend for a playoff spot. They’ll be lucky if they have enough firepower to stay out of the cellar in the Southwest.
Sidebar: It seems like everybody in NBA circles is in love with Omer Asik. Everyone calls him one of the best defensive centers in the league and some are predicting him to win the Most Improved Player Award this year. I’m not saying Asik isn’t good, but I haven’t seen it! I’ve never witnessed any of this defensive greatness this guy supposedly has. Maybe it’s been bad timing, I’m not sure. But I’m anxious to see what he does as the starter in H-Town.
Well done, Commissioner Stern. Well done.
The New Orleans Hornets are not too shabby and they have this kid name Anthony Davis who you may have heard of…he’s actually pretty good. In fact, he’s Real Deal Holyfield and the best thing that happened to him was getting the chance to play on Team USA this summer. Pairing him with Eric Gordon, Ryan Anderson, Robin Lopez and the underrated Greivis Vasquez gives the Bees a nice nucleus in 2012, especially seeing as how they were essentially starting from nothing after last year. We all know Austin Rivers has big boy swagger, but he must learn the NBA game and when to pick his spots on offense and how to defend before he can reach his potential. He’s not a super athlete, so he’ll need to use some cunning, along with his crazy handle, in order to get his shot off at this level. The Hornets will be back in the playoffs soon, but not quite this year. Their core is still a little too young, but this team is in good hands; I trust Monty Williams as a coach.
The Spurs should toy with this division as there are simply no other elite teams for them to contend with. The problem for San Antonio is, what will become of them in the playoffs? Two years ago, they were knocked out in the first round as a one seed. Last year, they looked unbeatable through 10 playoff games, then inexplicably dropped four straight to Oklahoma City.
While R.C. Buford is capable of pulling off a deal that will go unnoticed at the deadline, but can go a long way to determining who represents the West in the Finals, the Spurs made virtually no additions to their roster this summer. Score one for continuity, subtract one for roster improvement.
We know the Spurs will battle some injuries, but we also know they’ll be there at the end of the season. They should be a tough out in the playoffs as usual.
Pacific Division Champion: Tie- Los Angeles Lakers and Los Angeles Clippers
This may seem a bit far fetched for a prediction, but the Clippers and Lakers were separated by only one game in the standings at the end of last season. Both teams made several noteworthy changes, which we’ll get into momentarily. First, let’s address the bottom-dwellers that have virtually no chance at making the playoffs.
The Sacramento Kings have assembled the most unorthodox and flat out ignorant rosters I’ve ever seen. Strangely, there is a lot of talent in Sac-Town, believe it or not. Marcus Thornton can really get buckets, Isaiah Thomas made his namesake proud as a rookie (no relation though) and Tyreke Evans may need a change of scenery, but the former Rookie of the Year can play as well. And let’s not forget what the fifth pick of the 2012 draft, Thomas Robinson, did to Dwight Howard in the preseason.
Beyond all that, DeMarcus Cousins is not only the best player on the Kings, he is the third best center in the NBA right now, behind only Dwight Howard and Andrew Bynum. Even though Boogie can be a little nutty from time to time, you can’t deny his ability. He averaged 18 & 12 last season and would probably average more points if the guards on his team weren’t so trigger happy.
All this is is irrelevant though in the grand scheme of things, as the Kings have no chance at the postseason as currently assembled. Same holds true with the Golden State Warriors. This team has a roster full of legitimate NBA players (including the emerging Klay Thompson) and could surprise some people, but only if Andrew Bogut can get back and stay healthy and if Steph Curry’s ankles prove not to be made of wet napkins after all. Otherwise, it will be a long year for second year coach Mark Jackson.
The Phoenix Suns are in über rebuild mode after dealing their “favorite Sun” Steve Nash to the L.A. Lakers. While Phoenix does have some decent players (Marcin Gortat, Goran Dragic, Luis Scola, Jared Dudley, Markielff Morris, whatever you make of Michael Beasley etc.) none of these guys would start on a good team. The Steve Nash sign-and-trade was pretty weak for the Suns, as they only received first round picks in 2013 and 2015 and second round picks in 2013 and 2014. But those picks will be terrible because the Lakers will likely have a fantastic record in each of the next three years. This team also has quite a big of money still on the books for the next few years, despite the lack of overall talent. Needless to say, the Suns have fallen pretty hard after competing in the Western Conference Finals just two and a half years ago.
Which brings us to the Clippers and Lakers. There’s a real Jeezy/Gucci dynamic going between these two teams and it’s understandable. They share the same city, the same building, the same locker room, the same women (probably) and now the Clippers are battling for respect and the Lakers for legacy. Both teams went out in the second round of the playoffs last spring and decided to make drastic changes.
The Clippers had an incredible offseason. After deciding to retain Vinny Del Negro’s services as head coach, they signed veterans Grant Hill, Jamal Crawford, Lamar Odom, Matt Barnes, Willie Green and Ronny Turiaf. They also have Caron Butler and Chauncey Billups returning from injury, to go along with Eric Bledsoe, DeAndre Jordan, Blake Griffin and Chris Paul.
This team is stacked and goes about ten deep. Even though they were taken apart by the Spurs last May, they seem to have responded and are committed not only winning, but to retaining free-agent-to-be Chris Paul after this season.
There are a few problems with the Clippers though:
1) Did they bring in too many guys? Did they bring in so many players that they will begin bickering for minutes and do we trust Vinny Del Negro to piece it together?
2) Will Lamar Odom care at all this year? He sure as hell didn’t last year and by the looks of things, he doesn’t care yet this year either.
3) Did Blake Griffin, and to a lesser extent, DeAndre Jordan develop enough to get them over the hump?
And…
4) They’re still the Clippers, aren’t they? Yes, they are.
There’s no question who wins the 2012-13 paper championship.
As for the Lakers, the trade for Dwight Howard, and the one for Steve Nash, have given Kobe Bryant new life. Howard is the perfect fit for the Lakers because he will clean up a ton of the defensive lapses by Metta Ron Artest World Peace, Kobe Bryant (both once great defenders, but are now guys who don’t bring it on D every night) and Nash (never played defense in his life). The Lakers also quietly added Jodie Meeks, who will give them some perimeter punch off the bench, and Antawn Jamison, who is just about done in the NBA, but he’ll occasionally get you 15-20 points.
We haven’t even mentioned Pau Gasol yet. The passing ability and vision of Gasol and Nash should be able to give the Lakers a efficient offense even if Kobe and Dwight aren’t on the floor. Coach Mike Brown has never been one to know a lot about offense, but with this group, offense should be the least of his worries. All he has to do know is kick back and coach the defense, which is all he really wants to do anyway. The Lakers have a 2012-13 payroll north of $100,000,000. For that price, Mike Brown shouldn’t have to coach offense.
Western Conference Playoff Teams (in no particular order): Oklahoma City, L.A. Lakers, L.A. Clippers, Denver Nuggets, San Antonio, Memphis, Utah and Dallas
Sidebar: I realize I put Dallas in the playoffs after saying earlier they might not make it. My logic: Dirk is a Hall of Fame player and none of the teams Dallas will be battling with are all that great. Therefore, Dirk has earned the benefit of the doubt.
Western Conference Champion: Los Angeles Clippers
Yeah, probably not what you were expecting to hear. But HHSR did the same thing when making our Super Bowl pick, and halfway through the NFL season, that’s working out pretty well (knocks on wood feverishly).
The Clippers are our pick, albeit a reluctant one. No team in the West is in a league of it’s own right now and any of them could be pushed by say, Denver, for instance. The West is ultra-competitive and, unlike the East, where there are only two superior teams, the playoff matchups will determine who comes out of this conference.
For example, the athleticism of Oklahoma City, even sans Harden, could provide a serious problem for San Antonio, who did nothing to get more athletic at the wing positions. However, the continuity of the Spurs could disrupt the Lakers run at another title, seeing as how the core of L.A.’s team was largely revamped. It will be exciting to see Denver, Memphis, Utah, Dallas and the rest duke it out with the heavyweights in the playoffs, but these teams don’t realistically have a shot at the Finals. Of that group, only Dallas has a go-to-guy that we know can get it done. But as stated above, this doesn’t appear to be the Mavs’ year.
The Spurs will be right there, but there’s no way you can put them in the Finals when they made no improvements whatsoever and the trio of Parker, Duncan and Ginobili is a year older, but not necessarily a year better. The Thunder will be right there once again, but the removal of Harden from that group may take an emotional toll on this young team that was very close-knit— it could come back to bite them in the postseason. Kevin Martin will be a fine scorer from them, however there will be an adjustment and OKC will need to rely more on their rookies to step up in the playoffs. But rookies can only be expected to do so much. OKC will be back in the Finals soon, but they’ll take a step back this year.
And speaking of transitions and adjustments (not to mention pressure), the Lakers will have the biggest one of any team out west. Kobe will now have to give up his ball dominant ways to make room for Nash, Gasol will have to give up post touches to Howard (Pau didn’t think he was getting enough love before Dwight came to town) and it’s on Mike Brown to manage all this talent and all these personalities.
Is Mike Brown up to it?
Well, the last time Mike Brown had these kinds of egos and expectations, the Cavaliers imploded in the 2010 playoffs. A year prior, the Cavs should’ve made the Finals (remember the LeBron/Kobe puppet commercials?), but Brown totally butchered the Cavs defensive attack against Orlando and the Magic rained in three’s for days.
If you recall, the last time the Lakers put four megastars together, it didn’t turn out exactly according to plan. Point being, these things take time, as Miami Heat even had to learn. Teams like the 2012-13 Lakers don’t walk off the street and into an NBA championship (the 2008 Celtics are a rare exception, but even they were pushed to seven games the first two rounds of the playoffs that year). Maybe the Lakers, if they can keep all their guys healthy, can get there next year, but it won’t happen in 2013.
All the pieces are there. It’s up to CP3 to direct his team to the NBA Finals for the first time in franchise history.
That leaves the Clippers. Right now, you’re probably thinking, “What about those question marks?”, to which I respond…
I don’t know yet.
We’ll have to see if Chris Paul and Vinny Del Negro can get Lamar Odom to buy in because they definitely need him. I don’t believe the Clips acquired too many good players. That’s a good problem to have first off, but more importantly, guys like Grant Hill, who is already hurt, and Caron Butler, who ended each of the last two seasons with a significant injury, can spare one another in the event one misses extended time due to injury. We also can’t lose sight of Eric Bledsoe, the official HHSR pick for Most Improved Player in the NBA this season. This kid can really play; provided he gets the minutes, he can really win that award.
At the end of the day, the Clippers, with Harden out of the picture, now have the best bench in the West, assuming Lamar Odom stops chain swallowing chocolate-covered Big Mac’s. They now have enough experience and depth to overpower teams like the Lakers and Spurs and the new depth means less responsibility on their stars.
Speaking of which, the Clippers can go as deep in the playoffs as Blake, and to a lesser extent DeAndre, take them. Judging off the preseason (I know, it’s preseason), Jordan has really stepped up his game and diversified his offensive repertoire. This is their second year with CP3 (continuity, once again!) and I think they will be even better with him. It’s really easy to see any of the powerhouse teams out west representing the conference in the NBA Finals. But like Miami in the East, the Clippers have the best combination of young hoopers and wily vets with playoff experience.
Sidebar: Blake Griffin has been justifiably stuck with a reputation as a flopper, but that shouldn’t mean he isn’t tough. Did you happen to watch the Clippers last season? That guy gets HAMMERED more than any player in the league going to the rim. It’s nobody’s fault— no one wants to end up like Pau Gasol. But I applaud Blake’s toughness when attacking the basket. If he applies the same fire he has for dunking to his overall post game, the sky is the limit.
NBA Champion: Miami Heat defeat Los Angeles Clippers 4-2.
The last, and perhaps most important reason I have the Clippers making the Finals is because I believe in Chris Paul. I believe CP3 is a top five player in the league, I believe he is the best “point god” in the league and I believe he is the best leader in the NBA.
Quietly, CP3 didn’t have a great playoff run last season (he was banged up a bit too). But now he’s accustomed to playing in L.A. and with Blake Griffin. This team is loaded, yet they’re flying under the radar due to the Howard/Nash arrival.
Sidebar: See the Super Bowl prediction column for my feelings on the importance of flying under the radar.
Provided he’s healthy, I fully expect CP3 to be at his best, which means leading by example on an off the court. We’ve seen it from him in past years in the playoffs with inferior teammates (see below) and we’ve even seen it in the Olympics. As of right now, there is no reason to expect anything less from Chris Paul. This is the best team he’s ever been on— this is his time.
But even a warrior as fearless and cerebral as Paul is no match for the basketball playing buzzsaw that is LeBron James. The pressure is finally off King James, which is a problem for the rest of the NBA. The Year of LeBron extends into 2013 with another championship.
So for those counting at home, that’s “not one, not two…”.
To read HHSR’s Eastern Conference preview and predictions, click here.