When you consider all the excitement that went into the 2011-12 NBA season, culminating with coronation of King James in June, and all of the transactions that have taken place this summer (this week even), it is extremely easy to get excited about the upcoming NBA season, which tips off this Tuesday night at 7:00 p.m. with Washington at Cleveland…that’s right, Wizards at Cavs! Can you say Eastern Conference Finals preview?!?! Regardless of how you feel about the opening night’s slate of games, you cannot argue with all of the potential the 2012-13 season has to offer.
We’re living in an exciting time for NBA basketball. LeBron is the unquestioned best player in the game, there are “super-teams” forming in both conferences, the golden age of point guards is upon us, a few genuine rivalries seem to be brewing (Clippers-Lakers, Celtics-Heat, Nets-Knicks to name a few) and David Stern is ready to pack up his Vince McMahon routine and ride off into the sunset.
Sidebar: But you know he’s going to want to go out with a bang. Maybe he’ll just go Rock & Jock with the whole league. You know, 25-point shots, mid-game trades between the two competing teams, Brian McKnight— you’re typical MTV type stuff.
So let’s get into a preview and some predictions for the upcoming season, beginning with the Violat…, I mean, the Eastern Conference.
Atlantic Division Champion: Boston Celtics
This is arguably the most intriguing division coming into this NBA season. It almost seems as though many people don’t even appreciate the extent to which the Bostonians reloaded this offseason. Ray Allen may have left for Miami, but they were able to replace him with Jason Terry, an elite three-point shootering 2-guard who has been to two championships, winning once, and is one of the great clutch shooters of his generation. Sounds an awful lot like Ray Allen, doesn’t it? Both guys are breaking down a bit, but Terry is actually two years younger and has three less NBA years on his body. Furthermore, there are reports that Allen’s ankle is still not 100%. If that weren’t enough, Terry, unlike Allen, is not only okay with coming off the bench, he relishes that role. All in all, it seems like a net gain for Boston.
JET is an upgrade over Ray Allen and all he wants to do is “win” in Boston.
They also (from their playoff roster) swapped out Mikel Pietrus, Sasha Pavlovic, Marquis Daniels, Greg Stiemsma, Keyon Dooling and Ryan Hollins with Jeff Green, Courtney Lee, Chris Wilcox, Leandro Barbosa, Jared Sullinger and Avery Bradley (Wilcox, Bradley and Green all returning from injury). This is a MASSIVE net gain for the C’s. If KG and Pierce can maintain their level of play without any significant injuries (to prevent this, Doc Rivers needs to take a page out of Greg Popovich’s book of geriatric management) and Rajon Rondo plays with the same bulldog mentality we saw in the Eastern Conference Finals last spring, the Celtics will be right back in the championship hunt.
Sidebar: This year’s NBA general manager survey had Rajon Rondo ahead of Deron Williams on the list of best point guards. In fact, Williams didn’t finish in the top four of the survey. After what we’ve seen from Williams, especially with the lowly Nets the last two seasons, I have no problem with this. Williams is obviously a sensational player, but not every great player impacts the game in the same manner. For instance, Tracy McGrady was as talented as anyone in his day, but he never effected the game the same way that Kobe Bryant did. As of now, Williams falls into this category. What’s Deron Williams’ greatest career accomplishment (lighting up the Bobcats does not count)? How high has he ever finished in MVP voting? What records does he hold? What’s your favorite Deron Williams playoff moment? You can’t come up with anything! If the Brooklyn Nets are going to be any type of contenders this year, Williams must go from a talented guy that puts up empty stats to a true leader who leaves his imprint on every game. As of today, I’d certainty take CP3, Rondo, Russell Westbrook and a healthy Derrick Rose over him.
It’s time to step up and lead, D-Will. Period.
Speaking of Deron Williams and the Nets, they made quite a bit of noise this summer, and not just because they changed addresses. The team resigned Williams, Gerald Wallace and Kris Humphries, signed CJ Watson Andray Blatche and Reggie Evans and traded for Joe Johnson, the least super “superstar” in the NBA. All kidding aside, the swing-for-the-fences deal for Johnson is great for Brooklyn. It ensures they’ll have a competitive team going into their new city/building, it enabled them to bring back D-Will and it isn’t as if they have an owner who can’t afford Johnson’s orca big contract. Looking at the roster, it’s clear this team will be good in the regular season…and nothing more. The Nets fans can’t say their team hasn’t gone all in though. The Nets spent so much money this summer, they have the second highest payroll in the NBA ($85.4M, trailing only the Lakers) and already have $72.8M committed for the 2015-16 season! It’s only 2012!!!
Despite going all in, they’re destined for a 2nd round exit aka having “Joe Johnson Syndrome”. Strangely, the Atlanta Hawks suffered from the same affliction for years.
Their crosstown rivals in Manhattan also went all in this season— all into the retirement home. Granted, most of them won’t be playing huge minutes, but bringing in Jason Kidd (39), Marcus Camby (38), Kurt Thomas (40) and Rasheed Wallace (38, who hasn’t been good since 2006) won’t get them any closer to a championship. Neither will bringing in Raymond Felton, a player the Knicks jettisoned two years ago, who once remarked that he intentionally likes to come into camp out of shape.
Sidebar: Seriously, if you call yourself a pro athlete and websites like this even exist, you need to reevaluate things.
Amar’e is already hurt, Linsanity is long gone, Iman Shumpert (a really good young defender) likely won’t be back until January, Tyson Chandler still can’t score and Carmelo Anthony will be left to pick up the pieces. Not sure if I understand where this team is headed, but it ain’t deep into the playoffs.
The Philadelphia 76ers took a big risk in summer 2012 by trading their best player, Andre Iguodala and receiving center Andrew Bynum from the Lakers and guard/forward Jason Richardson from the Magic in the four team trade that sent Dwight Howard to L.A. This was a necessary move by Philly because it was clear that their roster, as previously constructed, was not going to get them any further than the second round of the playoffs, which they only reached last season because Derrick Rose’s knee exploded.
Incidentally, Richardson and Bynum are a really good haul for Iggy, but the Sixers also lost Lou Williams to the Hawks, which means this season will ride on three players for this team: Bynum, Jrue Holiday and Evan Turner. Holiday quietly had a nice season in 2012, but he had a better season the year before and Williams was “the closer” in the Philly backcourt. Holiday must elevate his game in order for Philly to thrive. Turner must do the same in the absence of Iguodala, but his gift seems to be his curse. His multifaceted game seems to make him an enigma of sorts on the court. For him, the key is consistency.
To call the making of Andrew Bynum the face of your franchise “a gamble” would be an understatement. As much as some people want to pump this guy up as the best center in the game, it just isn’t true. He may be as high as second best, but he’s only played more than 65 games once in his career and his knee is already acting up.
Does this guy look like an MVP candidate to you? No? Welp, lots of luck Philly.
The other thing we can’t ignore with Bynum is his perpetual knuckleheadedness. Remember, Doug Collins is peach-basket old school. Is he going to get along with Andrew when things get rough? Is he going to get along with Bynum if he’s lazy? Or when he’s doling out high cross-bodies to point guards on the court? Or when he’s parking in handicap spaces outside Wachovia? Philly should make the playoffs at about a five or six seed, perhaps even battling the Nets in the first round. But unless Bynum turns his 19 & 12 into a MVP-like 25 & 14 over 75 games, the Sixers won’t be going much further this year.
Toronto could be intriguing. They won’t make the playoffs this season, but it will be interesting to see how Jonas Valanciunas and Terrance Ross shake out. Valanciunas, a 2011 lottery pick, shows much promise and is basically a European legend already. Ross, a 2012 lottery pick out of the University of Washington, has had a weak preseason, but could turn out to be a good pro. The Raptors best bet might be to deal Andrea Bargnani for picks and shoot for the top spot in the draft one more time.
Central Division Champion: Indiana Pacers
The Chicago Bulls are still looked upon as the elite team in this division. That would be true, if Derrick Rose were healthy of course. His horrific knee injury during last year’s playoffs derailed the Bulls title chances and now Tom Thibodeau must orchestrate another regular season while his star point guard spends significant time on the shelf. Rose probably won’t be back until February at the earliest, and even then, he won’t be his same explosive self right away, which is what Chi-Town (and Adidas) needs. Derrick Rose is the most athletic point guard in NBA history. Think about it, he really is.
D. Rose looked like he took a hollow point to the kneecap last April. So yeah, it will be a minute before the Bulls get back.
The Bulls also saw significant changes to their bench, which was one of the league’s best in 2011-12. Ronnie Brewer and CJ Watson are in New York City playing for separate teams, Omer Asik is in Houston and Kyle Korver is in ATL. We know Joakim Noah has battled injuries (he hasn’t played in more than 64 games since the ’08-’09 season) and Carlos Boozer has battled being garbage for the last two years. The maturation of rookie Marquis Teague, who may have been a steal in the draft, will have a lot to do with the regular season success of the Bulls. Chicago still has Luol Deng, Taj Gibson and the second coming of Krik Hinrich returning to Chicago; will these semi-new look Bulls be able to pick up the slack for an injured Rose? Yes, but they won’t win the division.
The Pacers should finish the season as a top three seed in the East. After pushing the Miami Heat in the second round last season, the core group of Roy Hibbert, Paul George, George Hill, David West and Tyler Hansbrough is back. As Hibbert, George, Psycho T & Hill improve, you should see an improvement on last year’s 42-24 record. The problem with Indiana long term is they don’t have a lockdown perimeter defender (they lost Dahntay Jones this summer, the closet thing they had to one) and their best player is still Danny Granger, one of the signature fake superstars in the NBA. A Pacers beat writer told me last season that within a year, the Indiana would be “Paul George’s team” and Granger would be on his way out. It doesn’t look like that will happen anytime soon, but it’s hard to see the Pacers taking the next step with Granger as the lead dog.
There are two young teams in the Central Division that could surprise some people this year. The Detroit Pistons have quietly put together a decent team. Greg Monroe might have been an all-star this season, but he probably won’t since Stern got rid of the center position on the ballot. Regardless, he’s pretty good and he’s got some help on the way in the form of Andre Drummond. The ninth pick in the 2012 draft, Drummond was seen as a wild card and his draft stock suffered because of it. My support of Drummond as a top five pick actually predates the creation of HHSR, but it’s safe to say I was in the minority. Maybe he heard his critics loud and clear, because the big man from UConn has enjoyed a solid preseason, averaging 9.0 points on .623 shooting, 5.6 rebounds and 1.4 blocks per game (Sure, it’s only preseason, but all the signs Joe D could want from Drummond are there). When you pair him with Monroe and an emerging Brandon Knight, Detroit could be in the playoff picture.
When talking about young players however, you cannot have a conversation that doesn’t include Kyrie Irving. ESPN recently voted him as the 22nd best player in league right now at age 20, and I couldn’t agree more. His shooting, ball handling, passing, intelligence, fearlessness and selflessness make him the ideal superstar point guard in the making, which is why the Cleveland Cavaliers will be in the playoff hunt as well, provided he and Anderson Varejao (one of the NBA’s most underrated players) can stay healthy.
The Cavs though, seem to be in search of an identity. They are one of the youngest team in the league and Byron Scott says he wants to run, but watching them play, you don’t see a ton of it. But they are a scrappy bunch that plays hard, and that’s half the battle in the NBA. Dion Waiters will be a big question mark this season. Chris Grant rolled the dice on the sixth man from Syracuse with the fourth overall pick in June. Waiters draws comparisons to Dwyane Wade, but he’s not half the athlete Wade is. He’ll have to find a way to provide that consistent scoring punch the Cavs have been desperate to find.
The Milwaukee Bucks should compete with the Cavs and Pistons for third in the Central, but they’re a hard team to understand. Once you get past the explosive backcourt of Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis (which one of those guys will be playing any defense?) there isn’t much to see. Ersan Ilyasova is good, but as we said before, this team lacks players that can leave a true imprint on a game. They’ll score some points, but they’ll have a hard time stopping anybody.
Southeast Division Champion: Miami Heat
It’s pretty safe to say the Miami Heat will look like Team USA compared to the rest of this division. Of course, LeBron is the common denominator for both teams. While they still don’t have a center, Miami went out and added the aforementioned Shuttlesworth and Rashard Lewis. While we haven’t seen Rashard Lewis have a meaningful game in the NBA since So Far Gone was hot in the streets, the Heat are still better than they were last season. The injuries to Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh in the playoffs last year were a blessing in disguise. It forced LBJ to raise his game to levels of intergalactic dominance, while allowing Wade & Bosh to settle into their proper roles on the floor.
Sidebar: I coined the term “Power Guard” to describe LeBron James’ position on the basketball court years ago. This is the first time I’ve gotten it in writing though. Now I’m starting to hear it pop up other places. I should’ve patented it.
The Heat are still growing with one another and becoming more comfortable with who they want to be as a team. And while they’ll get every team’s best game every single night, they’ll probably go undefeated against the Southeast this year. The best quality of the Heat as a team is they have arguably the best mix of young and old players in the league, which is why they’ve seen more postseason success than anyone the last two years.
The Charlotte Bobcats and the Orlando Magic will be in an INTENSE dogfight for the worst record in the league this season. Actually, this will be one of the more entertaining rivalries we’ve seen in some time. The point shaving allegations will be flying when these two teams hook up! The worst part for Orlando is, they have the fifth highest payroll in the NBA! The only player Orlando got back in the Dwight-heist that I actually like is Arron Afflalo. And I fully expect Ben Gordon to average 34 ppg for the Bobcats this year (that’s not a compliment, please read between the lines).
Seriously, who’s rolling with this squad on 2K? I mean, c’mon now.
The Hawks will finish second in the division once again. I really like what Danny Ferry did with this roster since taking over as general manager (Deshawn Stevenson notwithstanding). He dumped Joe Johnson, Marvin Williams and Kirk Hinrich, brought in Devin Harris, Kyle Korver and Lou Williams at a fraction of the cost and he’s made Atlanta a free agent player for next summer. If Al Horford stays healthy, ATL will certainty be a playoff team, while still keeping operating costs down. How very Billy Beane of you Danny Ferry.
There’s obviously been a lot of excitement in the Washington D.C. sports landscape of late, yet people seem to be forgetting about John Wall and Bradley Beal. This guard combo will be pretty potent for the Wizards down the road, but this obviously isn’t their year. The trade they made to acquire the 30-year-old Nenê from Denver in March appears to be getting worse by the second. They still owe that guy $52M over the next four years; he’s never averaged more than 14.6 points and 7.8 rebounds per game in 10 NBA seasons, and he was hurt for nearly half of last year (and JaVale McGee looked pretty good in the playoffs for the Nuggets). The Wizards are still a few moves away from taking the next step.
Eastern Conference Playoff Teams (in no particular order): Boston, Brooklyn, Miami, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Indiana, Chicago and New York
Eastern Conference Champion: Miami Heat
Once again, the Heat and Celtics are head and shoulders above every other team in this conference. The playoffs can become interesting if players such as Deron Williams and Andrew Bynum take their game to the next level and live up to their immense potential, but I’m expecting an Eastern Conference Finals rematch from 2012, resulting in another entertaining seven game series.
Believe it or not, from top to bottom, the Celtics have a better team than the Heat. The Celtics had a better offseason than the Heat. The Celtics have a better coach and more experience than the Heat. But sometimes, in basketball, none of that matters. The Miami Heat still have this guy…
and the Boston Celtics don’t.
To see our Western Conference preview and predictions and our pick to win the 2012-13 NBA Championship, click here.