Nope.
I don’t see anyone arguing with this Finals matchup at all. The two best teams made it here— you can only tip you cap at this point. Given the fact that the Heat and Spurs are meeting in the NBA Finals for the second consecutive year, it makes sense to go back and look at HHSR’s article prior to the 2013 Finals for some context.
Last June, the topic was loyalty. We broke down different ways loyalty could be interpreted in basketball, and specifically, applauded the loyalty amongst the San Antonio Spurs organization. Even after gushing over the Spurs mastery of consistency and (near) excellence, we stuck with our preseason pick of the Miami Heat winning the NBA Championship. We picked the Heat in seven, and we successfully picked the winner of each of the seven games as the series progressed.
Sidebar: Okay, that was a really good run, and I’m not going to sit up here and act like that level of prognostication will be easily duplicated this time around.
Prior to the start of this season, HHSR had the San Antonio Spurs escorting the Larry O’Brien Trophy back to the Alamo. So far so good, right? Well, we mistakenly had the Miami Heat falling short of the final round. The logic behind that prediction? SOMETHING would inevitably trip them up. Injuries, infighting, Spoelstra…something would get em! Given their obvious flaws, it was hard to consider these Miami Heat amongst the greatest all-time teams in NBA history. Yet as the 2104 NBA Finals tip-off tonight, here we are.
As we pointed out in the preseason, the Heat are attempting a feat no team has done in nearly 50 years of NBA hoops: win four consecutive conference championships while claiming three consecutive NBA championships within that same window. Mission accomplished on the former; the latter is yet to be determined.
Still, nearly 50 years?!?!? This team?!?!
The same Heat team that has played without a legitimate center for all four of these years? The same Heat team with Mike Brown 2.0 manning the bench the entire time, who time and again drew up plays for Mario Chalmers in crunch time, relegating The New Big 3 to the world’s most expensive decoys (and who started DEXTER PITTMAN in a playoff game)? The same team that actually allowed Mario Chalmers to “play point guard” on this team all four years? This is a team whose SUPREME “on/off switch” has risen playing down to one’s competition to an art. The same Heat team that routinely gets crushed on the boards? The team whose second best player sits out a third of the season for a fairly nondescript injury, and nobody seems to mind? A team whose third best player, and only reliable big man, spends as much time at the three-point stripe as Ray Allen, yet has only shot .287 from there on average over four seasons with Miami? A team whose roster is filled out by a host of guys who should be on 10-day contracts? The team who actually spent time and money on Greg Oden? The team supported by one of the lamest fan bases in all of American sports? The oldest team in an increasingly young man’s NBA?
Seriously??? THIS IS THE TEAM poised to ascend to such rarefied air? Not the Shaq & Kobe Lakers, not Jordan’s Bulls, not the Bad Boy Pistons, the original Big 3 in Boston or the Showtime Lakers. Nope. With four more victories, the Miami Heat can trump them all.
Sidebar: Which if they do it, doesn’t that make the performance of Dirk Nowitzki and he 2011 Mavericks all the more impressive? Which each playoff win for this Heat team, the legend of Dirk’s Mavs grows a little more in relevance. Just imagine if Barkley had been the only one to knock off Jordan in the Finals, and Mike finished 5-1. It would’ve elevated Barkley’s stature in the game to heights rarely seen, especially for a Hall of Fame player with only one championship.
It doesn’t seem right.
Sure, Miami is super talented — and “Hollywood as hell”, as Joakim Noah once remarked — but this team has profited greatly from the top competitors in their conference crumbling around them year after year. However, a wise man once said “you can’t knock the hustle.” Another wise man once said “get it how you live.” And I’m pretty sure they’re some other hip-hop colloquialisms that apply here. But the point is, love em or hate em, the Heat have basically done what they’ve set out to do since they hatched their diabolical master plan (back in 2008, not 2010). The Heat are now an astonishing 14-1 in playoff series since 2011 and have won 11 straight series. Given the shrinking salary cap (although it’s poised for a spike) and the extreme scrutiny this team has faced from day one, their run has been pretty remarkable. But they’re not unbeatable.
While a common narrative of the 2014 Finals is the Heat/Spurs rematch, it’s actually the rubber match between LeBron James and Tim Duncan. A pretty unlikely rivalry, right? TD spared with Shaq, Kobe, Dirk and KG for years out west. LBJ carried the flag for the new generation in the east, and we couldn’t wait to throw rivals at him, even when they weren’t always appropriate. Melo, Durant, Pierce, Wade (remember those days? It was awesome), and now Paul George.
Nah. The Big Fundamental ain’t gone nowhere. And he’s met Bronny at basketball’s summit three times now. That should probably constitute as a rival, except that Duncan doesn’t really fit the mold of a traditional “rival” of anyone. He never engages in trash talk. He never sparks controversy. He’s the least demonstrative great player in league history and his style and persona fits perfectly within the Spurs team-first concept. Ultimately, that’s what separates the Heat and Spurs. For all the accolades the team receives, and for as much as he’s been praised for leaving Cleveland for “more help”, the Heat begin and end with LeBron, much like his Cavaliers once did. In the 2014 playoffs, James leads the Heatles in points, rebounds, assists, steals, minutes and a slew of advanced metrics.
What part of the game is that??
Meanwhile, the Spurs have seemingly perfected team basketball. Gregg Popovich won Coach of the Year after navigating his Spurs team to a league-leading 62 W’s, without a single player averaging 30.0 minutes per game— the first time that has ever been done in NBA history. Considering the Spurs were five seconds away from title number five last June, their monumental bounce back this season would certainly make Juvenile proud. Plus they do amazing stuff like this on the court all the time.
This is like if the Sistine Chapel was transformed into a basketball play.
Expect the Spurs to continue their strategy of forcing LeBron — who shot under .450 in the Finals a year ago — to take as many contested perimeter jumpers as possible, specifically by going under the screen on pick & rolls involving James. Miami could counter that having LeBron set the screen for Wade (or possibly Chalmers or Norris Cole) and allowing James to attack, but this is a strategy that Erik Spoelstra has seemed (at least) hesitant to unleash in the past.
Few people would argue Miami has a deeper team than the Spurs. Fortunately for the Heat, the better team doesn’t always win a seven game series. As ESPN’s Michael Wilbon astutely pointed out this week, the 1993 Phoenix Suns were a better team than the Chicago Bulls top to bottom. However Chicago’s one transcendent player was able to overcome this and lift his team to victory. LeBron is completely capable of turning the trick himself, but as mentioned on the HHSR podcast, it’s extremely difficult to imagine Pop getting bested by Spoelstra once again. He’ll do all he can to make someone else besides the best player on the planet beat his team.
Which brings us to Dwyane Wade. We noted Wade’s importance to a Miami three-peat at the start of the playoffs. His numbers against the Pacers were practically identical to the ones he put up versus S.A. last year, but the Heat barely won that series and probably shouldn’t have. Miami has had the luxury of playing in an extremely weaker conference in the playoffs and now will walk into a far greater test than they’ve dealt with in the first three rounds. To put it in perspective, the Heat’s playoff opponents had an average regular season win percentage of .581, while the Spurs’ opponents is .659. So imagine the Heat playing these entire playoffs against a team the caliber of say the Phoenix Suns. San Antone has played these entire playoffs against a team the caliber of….the Miami Heat! If the Heat are serious about overcoming this discrepancy, they’ll probably need at least one 30-point game from Wade, something Flash hasn’t done (or has had to do) this entire postseason.
Duncan after missing a potential game-tying gimmie in the final minute Game 7 in the ’13 Finals. It was the one that got away.
Sidebar: Of course, that strength of opponent argument has its limitations. The Spurs obviously haven’t seen a team like the Heat. But the fact remains the West has as many five, maybe even six teams that would’ve posed more of a threat to MIA than any of the other teams in the East did. How confident can you be that the Heat will be ready to perform at the level the Spurs have been forced to perform at for the last six weeks?
We probably shouldn’t expect Danny Green to put on the greatest shooting exhibition in Finals history again, but we also shouldn’t assume Manu Ginobili will be on a milk carton this series either. Manu shot a measly .433 from the field and .250 from behind the arc, and averaged over 3.0 turnovers per game against the Heat last year. He’s playing much better these days (averaging 15.2 points on .500 shooting and just 1.0 turnovers in a tidy 22.8 mpg versus Oklahoma City) and has been far more efficient all season. If Tony Parker’s health issues conveniently aids the Heat once again, expect Manu’s role to increase in terms of workload and significance. It’s also worth noting that San Antonio will have home court in this series, and with the Finals going back to the 2-2-1-1-1 format this year, the AT&T Center will host a potentially crucial Game 5, and the all important Game 7.
Believe it or not, this is LeBron’s fifth Finals appearance in 11 years. And he’s ALWAYS capable of doing stuff like this at any given moment…
But the Spurs appear to have the better team, just like they did last year. And teams that execute as well as the Spurs do don’t miss their mark twice. San Antonio gave the Heat a second life last June and James (and Ray Allen) made them pay. This year, the Spurs earned their own second life and will return the favor, allowing Tim Duncan to ride out on top with five rings after a Game 7 victory at home. King James is only 29. He’ll have plenty of time to chase history after Duncan retires.
C’mon LeBron, let Tmmy have just one more.