Log In Register
Lost your password?
A password will be e-mailed to you.

Sure, this stuff could all change. And yeah, we got some stuff wrong, but where’s the fun in pointing that out? Believe it or not, we’re already a quarter of the way through the young season, and you didn’t have to sift that far through HHSR’s NFL previews to strike pure gold.

Here are five *major keys* from the 2016 NFL season we saw coming verbatim.

Sidebar: Please believe we will revisit these at the end of the season.

1) “The NFL preseason is more important than you think.“

HHSR did a whole column on the importance of preseason football as it relates to predicting future results. I even doubled-down by largely basing my playoff picks on preseason performance. The early results are in…

AND WE ARE DEAD ON!

So far. Again, the sample is admittedly small, but compare the preseason standings to the regular season standings to this point. You’ll notice through four weeks, ALL EIGHT of the preseason division leaders (ties included) are currently either tied or all alone in first place.

2) “Maybe Super Bowl 50 was the Carolina Panthers last best shot.“

The offense ain’t the same (which we also said felt fluky last season). The defense ain’t the same. The MVP ain’t the same either.

It’s been reported that Cam Newton may have received some direction from a conservative PR man on how to speak on issues of race. Makes sense, especially considering how Newton has recused himself from such discussions. Perhaps in so doing, Cam also lost a piece of his identity, and the Panthers its identity. The secondary clearly misses Josh Norman and Charles Tillman (ask Julio Jones), and the team as a whole doesn’t seem to play with the confidence or flair it once did.

There’s also a fairly strong possibility that there’s nothing wrong with the Panthers and they just played probably the top two defenses in the league, along with a Falcons team in Atlanta that also bested them on the same field last season. But it’s WAY more fun to speculate on their downfall, isn’t it?

3) “Palmer is the weak link of a very impressive chain in Arizona.“

Another NFC finalist from last season is hardly looking final four worthy. The Cards started 1-3, but cut through the 49ers on Thursday night fairly easily…only Carson Palmer didn’t play.

The 36-year-old sat out a due to a concussion, yet backup Drew Stanton was able to put up 33 points against the hapless Niners. Palmer and the Cards’ season has mirrored that of the Panthers in many ways, however the difference is Arizona hasn’t faced the defenses Carolina has. More importantly, Newton is 27, while Palmer is nearly 10 years his senior. When a quarterback under 30 is in a funk, we call it “a funk”. When a quarterback pushing 40 is in a funk, he might just be washed.

4) “This [Eagles] team will need to hang its hat on its offensive line if it wants to really forge ahead in the NFC East.“

The play of the Philadelphia Eagles has been one of the most surprising storylines of the season. So surprising, that we didn’t even have them winning the NFC East. They sit atop the division though as one of only three remaining undefeated teams, and the o-line is largely responsible.

The Eagles have given up only four sacks on the season to date (in three games) and are fifth best in the NFL in pass protection according to Football Outsiders. The line, and rookie coach Doug Pederson have done everything possible to make life easy on Carson Wentz, and it’s working. Wentz hasn’t been asked to do a lot, but he’s excelled at what he’s been asked. Most notably, he’s taken care of the football and prevented the Eagles from beating themselves.

Turns out it’s hard for other teams to beat you when you don’t help them out. Who knew?

5) “The Broncos have built a winning culture, yet most don’t seem to believe they’ve earned the benefit of the doubt.“

With apologies to the Minnesota Vikings (whom we thought would fall off with Sam Bradford under center, and certainty seemed like they would after Adrian Peterson went down), the Broncos had arguably the most impressive opening month in all of football. As of todat, the little known Trevor Siemian and the rookie Paxton Lynch have not-surprisingly outperformed last year’s Bronco QB combo of future Hall of Famer Peyton Manning and big money backup Brock Osweiler. Meanwhile, Denver’s impregnable defense has barely slipped.

Cam Newton’s First Law of Motion: An object in motion stays in motion, and an object at rest stays at rest. In football, winning organizations stay winners and losing organizations stay losing. There’s a reason why, even in a sport that’s designed for quick turnarounds, teams like the Patriots and Broncos stay on top while teams like the Browns and Jaguars stay in the cellar. Having a culture is a real thing and the Broncos absolutely have the kind you want. It doesn’t mean great organizations can’t occasionally have a down year of stretch of years, rather those organizations know how to navigate those difficult times and can recover quickly, and more importantly, never jeopardize their future by making the types of mistakes that cause the fall off in the first place.

We learned our lesson from last season: Never immediately write off a team with a winning culture. We’ll let the other sports prognosticators catch up.