It’s about that time.
It’s like you’re in college. Spring break ended about a week ago, you’re meal plan is nearing E, the party-going is becoming less frequent (hopefully) because you know it’s time to buckle down and get serious if you’re going to pass all of your final exams.
The NBA season’s “second half” is underway and now about a week removed from All-Star weekend. Many teams around the league are jockeying for playoff positioning in the hopes that a game 7 in their own gym will be the difference for them advancing, as opposed to going home, while others are scrapping just to make it into the tournament.
Ordinarily, this is an extremely exciting time in the basketball season, and from a pure entertainment perspective, this year might follow the same script. In actuality though, most teams will find themselves in the hamster wheel of mediocrity (or slightly better than mediocrity). And by “most teams”, we’re talking roughly 87% of the entire league.
Don’t let the records or the playoff seeding fool you; only four (yes, FOUR) teams have ANY SHOT at winning the 2013 NBA Championship. This differs greatly from most years where at the start of the playoffs, there are usually at least three to four teams in each conference that are legitimate title contenders, which can occasionally be hard to discern in late February.
The Pretenders
This year, the smoke has already cleared and the dust has already settled. At the start of the season, six teams would’ve made our list of teams that could make a run at the Larry O’Brien Trophy in June. But the Lakers Titanic-like effort this season and the Celtics finally succumbing to injuries and attrition (although not the guys we suspected) have effectively crossed each of them off the list.
1) Boston Celtics
The recent 10-4 stretch of basketball authored by the Celtics since Rajon Rondo’s knee injury (including an initial 7-0 start) is nothing more than fool’s gold. Boston’s success sans Rondo has been fueled by nothing more than guile and pride— the pride that wouldn’t allow them to be written off by everybody & their mama with 38 games left. Those who suggest that some potential Ewing Theory could be in effect with regards to Rajon Rondo are sadly mistaken. Rondo is their best player; no team in the NBA is equip to withstand a season-ending injury to their best player in January and maintain their championship contender status.
Moreover, the green guys weren’t even that good before they lost Rondo. Every offensive possession is a struggle, they get crushed on the glass on a nightly basis and they don’t defend quite like they once did. Frankly, the only thing there is to like about the Celtics is the colossal heart they regularly exhibit, heart that surpasses any other team in the league (and has ever since KG came to town in 2007).
The Celtics chances at winning a title in 2013 officially ended with Rondo’s ACL blowout, but the injuries to Leandro Barbosa and Jared Sullinger that truncated their respective campaigns only served to hammer additional nails in the proverbial coffin.
Even still, the dire straits of the Celtics has nothing on their cross-country rivals.
2) Los Angeles Lakers
These days, the Lakers locker room is functioning about as well as the Miami Heat locker room would if Lil Wayne was in it.
“Fuck She-Wade!”- Lil Wayne (Note: Peep the band aid)
Sidebar: First, friend of HHSR Uncle Luke (check the retweeters) responded, then Pitbull and now Trick Daddy? Pretty soon, Wayne’s gonna have all of Miami-Wade County on his ass for this one.
With no Phil, no D Fish and no Dr. Buss (rest in peace), Kobe has clearly lost his marbles this season. Pau Gasol gets benched, Kobe calls him out. Dwight Howard gets hurt, Kobe calls him out. And let’s not even talk about Mike Brown! He drops F bombs in just about every postgame interview, and at this point, is speaking his mind more freely than just about any NBA player since Allen Iverson (at least), maybe even since Charles Barkley.
What makes this comical for everyone who is not a Laker fan is the hypocrisy of it all. Suppose Kobe was relegated to a sixth man role by Mike ‘Antoni (not a typo) and was being benched in the fourth quarter of tight games, how do you think he’d handle it? Granted, Bryant has played through just about every injury imaginable. But does he actually believe this tough love approach will sink in with the 27-year-old Howard? Kobe was 27 back in 2005, and was on a Laker team that had missed the playoffs the previous season. Why? Because Phil Jackson and Shaquille O’Neal had given him some “tough love”, and the Mamba ran them both out of town. Regardless, when it comes to embarrassing one’s teammates in public, you can always #CountOnKobe.
Bryant is one of the most defiant athletes we’ve ever seen. He’s always on a mission to shut somebody up or prove somebody wrong, and his style of leadership has proven to be just as abrasive as his approach on the court. Though he’s not at the top of the list of reasons why the Lakers’ season has imploded, Kobe’s attitude while outlined with good intentions, hasn’t helped. Prior to the season, we stated that the acquisition of Dwight Howard could satiate Kobe’s quest for six championships, if not more. But at this point, only Dr. Buss’ spirit providing divine guidance can land the Lakers in the postseason.
3) Memphis Grizzlies
With the Lakers and Celtics out of the running, that leaves only four teams that are capable of winning the NBA championship. While Barkley and some other pundits believe the Memphis Grizzlies are a serious threat in the Western Conference, figuring out how this squad could be play in June has always seemed hard to understand, despite their recent seven game win streak.
With the Grizz having now moved on from O.J. Mayo and Rudy Gay, without having received significant talent in return, Memphis’ lack of a perimeter threat is a glaring weakness. Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol are fine players, but how anyone could legitimately seen a team anchored by them and Mike Conley coming out of the West is a mystery. They had more talent last year and lost in the first round. The Grizzlies’ chances would increase exponentially if they were in the Eastern Conference, as their size and style of play could give the Heat some problems, but this is a good team stuck in a great conference that will not make it past the second round.
4) The Entire Eastern Conference (Except Miami) And The Best Of The Rest Of The West
Speaking of the East, the talent pool there is so shallow, it’s a shame that basketball fans everywhere are only going to get half of a playoffs. There is literally only ONE team in the entire conference that can win the NBA Championship. The Knicks, Pacers, Nets, Bulls & Hawks— they’re all battling for the right to get ran off the court by the Heat in the conference finals…
And deep down, everybody knows it.
No team in the East has the very necessary combination of a strong interior presence, athletic wings and elite point guard play to even pose a minor threat to the Heatles. Yeah, they may have one series that lasts six games, but nobody has that combination of personnel, let alone the experience, coaching acumen and the BALLS to beat Miami four out of seven games.
The Knicks seem to be the team that would come the closest. They’re a good defensive unit (when they want to be), they’re experienced, can get hot from three and have a transcendent superstar on their roster. But after the way the Heat handled the Knickerbockers last spring, it’s hard to imagine them having a shot unless Carmelo Anthony LITERALLY outplays LeBron James four times.
The Pacers are in the conversation too, as they consistently do important things well, such as defend and rebound, but the return of Danny Granger and the emergence of all-star Paul George won’t be enough to outlast Wade and LeBron. This is especially true if Roy Hibbert doesn’t start living up to the massive contract extension he received last summer. He’s been garbage this year…flat out.
Sidebar: If his game doesn’t pick up soon, we may be forced to nickname Roy Hibbert “Garbs” until further notice.
The West contains some other good teams like the Denver Nuggets and the surprising Golden State Warriors, but nobody expects these teams to still be standing past the second round of the playoffs. The Warriors are a young team with a young coach and don’t have the necessary experience to make a deep run, while the Nuggets still lack a go-to-guy since trading away Melo. Ultimately, it’s a three-team race in the West (although the Houston Rockets could still move even higher in the standings before the season has concluded).
So that leaves us with…
The Contenders
1) San Antonio Spurs
If you watched last Thursday night’s Clippers/Spurs game, then you witnessed one of the great smackdowns of the season as San Antonio beat the breaks off the Clips in their own gym. The level of precision in this whippin was similar to that of the third quarter in Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals last season against the Thunder. The Spurs have certainly been good enough to win the NBA title each of the last two years, but the well-oiled machine that is this team suddenly stalled in the playoffs twice over.
San Antonio did not make any significant roster moves since last season, and their already veteran core group are all one year older. However, no team shares the ball better, is more disciplined and is better coached than the Spurs. With Tony Parker playing at the top of his game and with a revitalized Tim Duncan manning the paint, their league-best 44-13 record is no accident. The Spurs’ fourth through eighth men on their roster would body most teams, just like they did the Bulls in Chicago.
You can never count out San Antonio from a NBA championship discussion— this season is no different. The real question is, are they better than last year’s team that failed to make the Finals?
We really won’t know until June.
2) Los Angeles Clippers
As bad as that blowout loss to the Spurs was, we can’t lose sight of the fact that the Clippers have alaredy beaten San Antonio twice this season.
Currently sporting the league’s fourth best record, the Clippers have the depth, but more importantly, the proper combination of youth, athleticism and veteran leadership to make a deep run. Prior to the start of the season, HHSR had the Clippers representing the West in the NBA Finals. Luckily, they haven’t disappointed, and just as he did in the All-Star Game, Chris Paul is playing at an elite level.
Parker’s team swept Paul’s troops in the 2012 playoffs, but we may be nearing a Western Conference Finals rematch.
The problem, though, lies in the middle. In that same preseason piece, it was said that this Clipper team would go as far as Blake Griffin & DeAndre Jordan would take them. Both have played well, hence their quality record. But it was no secret that Clippers brass was leaving no stone unturned when attempting to pull off a deal for another big (and they were not above offering Jordan in such a deal). Anderson Varejao, Paul Millsap and Kevin Garnett were all rumored to be headed to Los Angeles. It’s painfully obvious that management does not believe this frontcourt can win a title as currently constructed.
The Clippers need to protect the rim, especially in crunch time. Since Jordan rarely plays in those situations, L.A. is forced to rely on Lamar Odom down the stretch of games, which is a risky proposition to say the least at this point. Couple with Blake Griffin’s still underdeveloped game on the low block and the Clippers will continue to have some issues in the halfcourt on both ends.
3) Oklahoma City Thunder
Regardless of the fact that Oklahoma City have dropped three of five games, they are still one of the most complete basketball teams in the league. Kevin Durant is Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook is a GREAT basketball player, regardless of what the national media would want you to believe, and Kevin Martin has filled in nicely as the sixth man on this team.
Sidebar: KD is quietly having one of the great shooting seasons in NBA history, currently shooting a blistering .512 from the field, .423 from three-point range and .909 from the foul line. Other guys like Reggie Miller, Mark Price and Steve Nash have pulled off the .500, .400, .900 feat, but only Larry Bird has done so when shooting as frequently as Durant does.
What is most troubling about this team is their mental state after the James Harden deal last October. The trio of Durant, Westbrook and Harden was as equally tight off the court as they were effective on the court. While Harden struggled under the lights of the NBA Finals last summer, it was obvious that the Thunder would’ve never gotten that close to a championship without The Bearded One. The way he took over games in the playoffs last season was absolutely stunning at times.
After witnessing what Harden is doing for the Houston Rockets in a starring role this season (26.4 points per game, fifth in the NBA), and knowing that even with that guy in an OKC uniform, they still fell short of a championship, how can the Thunder honestly believe that this team is good enough to win the whole thing? How can this team’s confidence not be shaken when they see James Harden flourishing in Texas? If you gave Kevin Durant a shot of truth serum, do you believe he’d say this year’s Thunder team is better than the 2011-12 squad?
Still, with Durant and Westbrook (28.8 & 22.9 ppg respectively, good for first and seventh in the league), and a rapidly improving Serge Ibaka (who has developed a pretty consistent mid-range jumper), the Thunder will be in the thick of it until the end. OKC is the highest scoring team in the league and are third in the NBA in field goal percentage against. Considering their vast improvement in each year they’ve been in the playoffs, we know they’re a legitimate contender, with or without James Harden.
4) Miami Heat
The team HHSR picked to win their second straight championship this year is not only in the midst of an 12-game winning streak, they are also playing their best basketball since the LeBron/Wade/Bosh triumvirate of destruction was assembled. Wade & Bosh are making the most of the quality looks they’re getting, but it’s LBJ who has separated himself from the rest of the league and the Most Valuable Player discussion.
LeBron is trying out this new thing where he just doesn’t miss any shots— this has undoubtedly contributed to the Heatles recent winning streak. In his own personal tribute to Black History Month, LeBron shot just under .650 from the floor in the month of February.
Sidebar: Okay, definitely made up the part about the tribute. Although, if LBJ’s month of February went down in basketball lore as “The Black History Month Tour”, there would be no argument against it here.
As long as the Heat are this efficient on offense, while remaining in the top 3 in the NBA from three-point range (aka Kaboomtown), they’ll coast right back into the Finals.
Here’s the thing about NBA basketball: If history has taught us anything, it’s that teams rarely just jump up and compete for championships out of nowhere.
This isn’t like football, or even baseball for that matter, where a team can get hot late in the season and ride that success deep into the playoffs. Basketball is cyclical in nature, and thus, very different. Experience and smarts matter, and because winning teams have to claim four out of seven games, the “nobody believed in us” fairytale run that the Ravens went on hardly ever happens on the hardwood.
This is why before the season, HHSR predicted the Eastern Conference and Western Conference playoff teams and (as of now, if the playoffs started today), seven of eight teams in the East and six of eight in the West are correct.
Sidebar: Of the three incorrect teams, Dallas has been without their best player for over half the season, Philadelphia has been without their best player for the entire season and the Lakers were the one team that everybody had in the playoffs (if not the Finals). Seems like now is a good time to mention that ALL of these prognostications hinge on injury; any major injury can throw this whole thing off. But as it stands, it’s just these four teams and nobody else.
The NBA is about hierarchy. Even teams that aren’t supposed to win, like the 2004 Detroit Pistons, lost in the conference finals the year before and in the second round two years prior to their championship run. We must believe that a team can win it all because they’ve given us reason. Of the four, the only team that hasn’t been in the Finals in recent years is the Clippers, but this team has only improved since the arrival of CP3 and has continued to develop their young players and add vets with playoff experience.
In the West, it’s easy to imagine the Clippers giving the Thunder problems, the Spurs handling the Clippers in a series and the Thunder knocking off the Spurs. But what is the scenario for another team outside of these three making the conference finals? Is Memphis going to take down Denver AND the Spurs? Can the Warriors upset the Clippers AND the Thunder? It all seems unlikely.
The East, on the other hand, is nothing more that Miami’s playpen until the real fun starts in June. The NBA Finals will be the Heat vs. the Spurs/Thunder/Clippers, with the Western Conference champion most likely hinging on the matchup.
It’s already done. Don’t believe me? Just watch!