At best, his style can sometimes be aggravating. At worst, his style is at all times infuriating (and illegal). If Kobe Bryant was Picasso on a basketball court, James Harden is paint by numbers: easily replicated scoring bunches aided by the application of simple mathematics. The pace and philosophy of the Houston offense magnifies the raw talents of Harden; his rare combination of skill and circumstance has gifted us performances the likes of which we have never seen. The Beard has four (!!!!) 50-point triple-doubles (including one 60-point triple-double) on his résumé, all since New Year’s Eve 2016.
The two greatest individual scoring performances in NBA history are Wilt Chamberlain’s 100 points in 1962 and Bryant’s 81 points in 2006. Given Wilt grossly outmatched his opponents physically, it happened nearly 60 years ago and no video of the event exists, Kobe’s 81 is generally more revered by basketball fans today. And the argument could be made it was the more impressive of the two feats. The universe had to align in a very specific way to open the door for Bryant to etch his name in the history books. A similar situation appears to be at the feet of Harden, the NBA’s deadliest scorer.
Looking back on January 22, 2006, Kobe shot 28-46 (.609) from the field, 7-13 (.538) from three, and 18-20 (.900) from the charity stripe in 42 minutes to notch his 81 points. Often lost in this other-worldly performance was the Lakers trailed by 18 points early in the third quarter. Bryant’s binge was an absolute necessity if winning was going to at all be a possibility. At 22-19, good for sixth in the West (1.5 games out of the eighth and final playoff spot), Los Angeles was in the midst of a season-long battle to make the postseason. They would finish seventh, with Bryant leading the NBA at a 35.4 ppg clip. Smush Parker and Chris Mihm were the third and fourth leading scorers respectively on those Lakers. Every Kobe bucket was a necessity in 2006.
James Harden’s Rockets — coached by Mike D’Antoni — are far more talented, but they’re wading through a tough stretch that requires The Beard to be even more exemplary than usual. Chris Paul and Eric Gordon are both out injured. The Rockets’ second-leading scorer in last night’s loss at Portland (Harden had 38, severing a five-game streak of 40-plus points) was Austin Rivers, who was signed off the street December 24. That L dropped Houston to fifth in the West, but just 1.5 games out of the eighth place, a similar position to where the Lakers were when Kobe caught fire. Bryant had dropped 40 or more five times in the month of January prior to 81.
Basketball has changed dramatically over the last 13 years. Most notably, scoring is WAY up across the league. The “seven seconds or less” Phoenix Suns paced The Association in points in ’06 averaging 108.4 a night, which was considered revolutionary at the time. Today, only 10 teams DON’T average at least 108.4, with Milwaukee leading the way at 117.7. Phoenix’s league-leading 95.8 possessions per 48 minutes is also dwarfed in today’s game, as all but three teams currently average more possessions per game (Atlanta leads the NBA at 104.4). More possessions equals more shots; more shots equals more points. Obviously, three-point attempts have also spiked in recent years. Harden’s Rockets leads the NBA with 42.7 attempts per game, OVER 17 MORE THREES PER GAME than the ’06 Suns, also coached by Mike D’Antoni.
So how exactly would Harden score 82? Well, Kobe’s formula for 81 is one that could certainty be cloned by the reigning MVP. Harden’s usage rate this season is 39.04, which if it holds would rank second all-time in a single season, edging out Bryant’s ’05-’06 campaign of 38.74. He’s also attempted at least 20 and made at least 18 free throws in a game 13 times in his career—no player in the game gets a more favorable whistle, to the point that noteworthy defenders have actually attempted guarding Houston without arms and hands just to prove a point. Harden has led the NBA in FTAs five of the last six years and is a slightly better FT shooter for his career (.854) than Bryant (.837).
Sidebar: Ironically, the only game he’s never gotten a call was the biggest game of his life. The NBA still needs to answer for this crap.
Kobe “only” made seven threes the night of 81. Harden has connected on seven or more threes 19 times, and is a significantly better long distance shooter (.366) than the Black Mamba (.329). James also has 12 career games where he’s shot .600 or better on at least 20 FGAs.
All the signs are there: the talent, the circumstance, the style of offense and the lack of defense around the league. Knowing how Kobe did it and how he and Houston attacks the game, a James Harden 82-point game would look something like this:
24-40 from the floor (.600)
12-20 (.600) on twos (24 points)
12-20 (.600) on threes (36 points)
22-25 (.880) on free throws (22 points)
It’s a lot, but not inconceivable considering how hot Harden can get. We’re talking less than 21 points per quarter, which is child’s play for a guy who can do this on an off night…
The only thing standing in his way are A) his willingness to pass (Harden is currently fourth in the NBA in assists) and B) turnovers (he comfortably leads the NBA in this stat…again). Kobe didn’t let these factors stop him in ’06, recording just two assists and three turnovers. It may also be challenging to fathom Harden taking 20 two-pointers in a game, but he could certainly make 15 threes, too. Harden has never taken 40 shots in a game, but he has taken 35 twice, both this season, the most recent being last night in Portland.
As long as CP3 and Eric Gordon are sidelined, James Harden will continue to shoulder the offensive burden for the Rockets, which could yield us a very special performance before we know it.