Closing Costs: Processing The Patriots Late Game Problems

There’s a scary new trend that has surfaced in the NFL…well, it’s scary depending on who you ask. The first sighting took place several years ago, then gradually over time “it” became more prominent. Now, “it” seems to be a regular occurrence on Sunday afternoons. No, I’m not talking about Aaron Hernandez’s nonsensical touchdown celebration. I’m talking about his team’s inability to close out their opponents.

Granted, the New England Patriots are 3-3 on the season, and are still the heavy favorite to win the AFC East. In fact, they still have the 2nd best odds to win the AFC Championship. But for a team considered by many to have the best head coach and the best quarterback in the game today (possibly of all-time for both), they have struggled mightily with putting teams out of their misery of late.

We’ve seen signs from this in the past. “It” started with the 2006 AFC Championship game. The Pats held an 18-point lead against the Colts in Indianapolis before letting Peyton Manning and the crew storm back, outscoring New England 32-13 in the 2nd half.

But that was just an aberration, right? Besides, the Patriots would go on to win their first 18 games the following year. But something happened…”it” happened again. New England led by four in the final two minutes of Super Bowl XLII before the New York Giants came back to win, led by Eli Manning, who authored the most improbable (cough, lucky, cough!) drive in Super Bowl history.

There aren’t too many bigger games on the Patriots’ schedule (at least not to the fans and media) than the annual Manning/Brady Bowl. In 2009, Bill Belichick’s boys traveled back to Indy and held a comfy 31-14 lead early in the fourth quarter. Then, all of a sudden, “it” happened. Peyton would lead the Colts on a 21-3 run to close the show, as once again the Pats creatively found a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

“It” would happen again in Super Bowl XLVI against the Giants, after New England blew a 17-9 2nd half lead, including a 17-15 lead in the final minute.

And so has been the trend— which brings us to 2012.

After steamrolling the inferior Titans in week one, New England would drop two straight to Arizona and Baltimore. The Cardinals battled nip & tuck with the Patriots throughout, but the Ravens would again assume the role of spoiler in the game’s final moments, edging out Brady’s bunch 31-30 on a field goal as time expired. After momentarily righting the ship against Buffalo and Denver (a team they were dying to let back into the game), the Patriots would again lose a lead late in the game on Sunday in Seattle, coughing it up like Walter White in season one.

At this point, you’re probably thinking, “Man, the Pats sure have blown a lot of games at the end recently,” but we haven’t even told the whole story. According to ESPN Stats & Information, the Patriots have lost 7 games since 2009 when leading in final 5 minutes, which is tied for 3rd most in the NFL over that stretch; a staggering stat for a team captained by Brady and Belichick. “It” has happened so frequently, we predicted it before it even went down on Sunday!

So what’s the problem? New England has Brady and Belichick, a prolific offense and a team that has played in more big games than James Worthy.

Truthfully, there is enough culpability to go around when examining why the Patriots have struggled in these situations. So let’s try to break this down:

After leading late in the game, Tom Brady walked off a loser on Sunday…a feeling that has become all too familiar for him.

Quarterback Play– While we feel Tom Brady is the best in the game and he has often done enough to put his squad in a position to win, he hasn’t always been stellar in these moments. For instance, on Sunday he threw two interceptions in the 2nd half, including a disastrous one in the end zone on 3rd down early in the fourth quarter. Had New England converted that drive into a touchdown, they would have taken a 27-10 stranglehold on the game. Instead, Seattle was able to hang around and Russell Wilson did…what apparently Russell Wilson is prone to do.

But not every game can be put on Brady. In fact, he remains the Patriots biggest asset. Brady’s pick in the third quarter was his first in 179 attempts. Sometimes, his receivers don’t make the necessary plays to win the game, as we saw in their most recent Super Bowl trip. But while he is not the biggest reason for his team’s late game struggles, he could certainly improve his play.

Defense– All of these games have a common denominator: New England gives up the lead at the end of the game, which implies that the offense had ostensibly scored enough points to win, but the defense simply could not hold.

It was Belichick, “the architect of the great New York Giants defenses in the late 1980s,” who was hired by Bob Kraft back in 2000 to be a defensive wizard. It is “Belichick’s defense” that is often credited for the Super Bowls won by the Patriots in the early and mid 2000s, stifling the likes of Manning’s Colts and Kurt Warner’s St. Louis Rams.

The Belechick-ian hubris grew to the point that after the departures of Romeo Crennel in 2004, Eric Mangini in 2005 and Dean Pees in 2009, the head coach began serving as the team’s defensive coordinator (Belichick has also served as the team’s offensive coordinator at times during his tenure).

It makes you wonder if there is any connection between the team’s “defensive coordinator” and their inability to get big stops at key moments in the game, especially when you consider the Patriots have average rankings of 26th and 30th in total defense and pass defense respectively (out of 32 teams) since Belichick began calling the shots in 2010.

Sidebar: Total defense and pass defense statistics are through Sunday’s game.

Play Calling– Despite the fact that they currently rank atop the NFL in total offense, the Patriots offense has consistently let teams off the hook when they have the lead late in games. This year, New England’s new-found running game has been a double-edged sword.

Today the Pats are actually fourth in the NFL in rushing and the four-headed monster of Stevan Ridley, Brandon Bolden, Danny Woodhead and Shane Vereen has been highly productive. To think that at team this good at running the ball would have this much trouble putting teams away in the fourth quarter is counter-intuitive. However, this production appears to be fools gold, as the vast majority of it has come in their three victories. The Pats are averaging 29.3 carries for an atrocious 84.7 yards per game (2.9 yards per carry) and just two total rushing touchdowns in their three losses, of which in two games, “it” happened.

Now, we’re all for offensive balance and we’re not suggesting Belichick allow Tommy Three Rangs to chuck it on every play (Brady actually dropped back a career-high 58 times on Sunday), but Belichick and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels seem to be missing a feel for their offense. Many times it’s not about how many running plays are called, but when New England chooses to run the ball. This was especially noticeable in the Ravens game, where at the start of the fourth quarter, they ran the ball with Woodhead on 2nd and goal from the 8-yard line (after Ridley was knocked back four yards on 1st down) for no gain. After an incompletion by Brady on 3rd down, the Pats were forced to settle for a field goal, making the score 30-21. But knowing that finishing off teams has been an issue for his troops, why didn’t Belichick give his all-world quarterback two cracks at throwing it in end zone? A loss of four on 1st down should’ve deaded all running plays, but Belichick tried to get cute with the Ravens defense, rather than going for the jugular with his best weapon. A 34-21 advantage in the fourth quarter may have been insurmountable for Baltimore.

It’s time for you to put on your thinking hoodie and come up with some answers.

We saw the same thing on a possession in the fourth quarter of the Seahawks game. With a first down at the Seattle 25-yard line, the Patriots ran the ball three consecutive plays out of the no-huddle, resulting in only eight yards, thus netting them only three points. Again, they left points on the field and instead of a three-possession 27-10 fourth quarter lead, they had to settle for a manageable (for Seattle) two-possession 23-10 advantage, with nine minutes left in the game.

The New England Patriots are repeatedly squandering possessions late in games. When you notice the lack of aggressiveness in their play calling down the stretch, it appears as though they are content with settling for field goals when they should be playing for touchdowns. They appear to be playing not to lose, rather than to win.

Sidebar: Perhaps Brady deserves some of the blame for not audible-ing out of these run plays in order to control the outcome of the game himself. But it starts and ends with Belichick. It’s hard to imagine Brady not wanting to take the game in his own hands at this point, therefore, one can only figure it’s a coaching decision.

Player/Personnel Decisions– Belichick has been in charge of all player and personnel moves for the Patriots since Scott Pioli left for Kansas City in 2009. His decisions on draft day and in free agency, though, have been highly questionable. Prior to the 2012 NFL Draft, he had a history of trading back again and again in an effort to obtain more picks for the future. But this, along with not paying many of his own top players over the years, has resulted in his team lacking the necessary infusion of talent it needs.

We see this lack of talent on plays such as the bomb from Wilson to Sidney Rice that ultimately won the game for the Seahawks. Sure, safety Patrick Chung left the game due to injury, but c’mon!

Moreover, the return of Josh McDaniels as offensive coordinator and the addition of Brandon Lloyd were supposed to give the Pats the much needed deep threat the team has lacked since the departure of Randy Moss. But so far, Lloyd has been nothing more than a glorified possession receiver, which only puts limitations on their offense’s big play ability.

One may argue that Belichick, “isn’t out there on the field,” but he makes all the final draft an free agency decisions. So the blood is on his hands for both the “X’s and O’x and Jimmy’s and Joe’s”. The Patriots have transformed their identity from a defensive-oriented team to an offensive juggernaut, but now cannot seem to execute either down the stretch against quality opponents.

Conclusion– This kind of unquestioned autonomy over all things football in New England leaves Bill Belichick holding the bulk of the responsibility for these blown opportunities late in games. He’s in charge of the defense, he picks the players, he has a large input in the plays called on offense…frankly, he has not been good enough.

In fact, for all the accolades he receives for being one of the greatest coaches in NFL history, Bill Belichick’s career head coaching success in the regular season has heavily coincided with the arrival and emergence of Brady. The table below compares Belichick’s career record before and after the arrival of Tom Terrific.

Bill Belichick Career Regular Season Head Coaching Record

*”With Brady” begins when he took over as the full-time starter, Week 3 of the 2001 season. Also includes the 2008 season when Brady missed 15 games.

SIdebar: While it’s understandable to question the data given that Belichick’s 11-5 season in 2008 without Brady is included, it’s hard to justify the amount credit he receives for New England’s success when this is the only success he’s had in his career without Brady under center.

Regardless of whether or not they are the best team, the Patriots are the gold standard by which all other teams measure themselves. Every team gives New England their best game and when they are victorious, they can’t wait to pull stunts like this.

Like a once great prizefighter who cannot finish off his opponent, the aura of invincibility the Patriots once had is long gone. Until they can get back to, and win another Super Bowl, there is only one way to restore it…

The Patriots need the return of The Old Bill Belichick!

The Belichick that would run up the score and not care about the criticism that came after. The Belichick that had only contempt for the opposing team’s head coach. The Belichick that relished in playing the role of Team USA, while making his opponents play the role of Nigeria.

Over the years, Belichick has frequently been chastised by pundits and fans alike for running up the score. This was especially prevalent during their 16-0 season of 2007.

You know what didn’t happen in 2007? THEY DIDN’T COUGH UP ANY LEADS AT THE END OF THE GAME!

The Pats are lacking that same killer instinct that once fueled them. Maybe they can recover it this Sunday against the New York Jets, a team that always seems to get a rise out of them. Furthermore, they’re not facing a team nicknamed after a bird this weekend (if the Patriots play they Falcons in the Super Bowl, they’re screwed!).

Regardless if you place the blame on Brady, the play-calling, the personnel decisions, the defense or his own ego, Bill Belichick must be better in late game situations, especially when his team has the lead in the fourth quarter. The old Patriots were violent, cutthroat, ferocious, and it is on the head coach to resurrect that same venom in order to prevent “it” from happening again and to restore the aura.

This man famously says nothing in his post game press conferences. Thankfully for him, there’s nothing left to be said. It’s Time 4 Sum Aksion!