Four teams remain in the quest for the Lombardi Trophy— the very four teams that has the majority of football fans in absolutely euphoria. Niners/Seahawks. Pats/Broncos. Sometimes, the football gods get it right.
The divisional round conclusively proved that there are indeed levels to this shit, as we saw all four favorites (including the road 49ers) prevail, thus setting the stage for one of the more epic championship weekends in recent memory. The outcomes of last week’s games also serve as confirmation that the NFL’s two best teams from each conference — and the four best teams overall — will be playing this Sunday. And the best part is we’re guaranteed a compelling Super Bowl regardless of the outcomes.
HHSR went 3-1 on picks in last week (2-2 against the spread) and are now 5-3 on the postseason (3-5 vs the spread). The Broncos actually took care of business and Peyton Manning came through in crunch time with two HUGE third down conversions in the fourth quarter, the first of which was unbelievable.
While we got that game wrong, we did manage to stumble into a few correct predictions. Most notably, the Patriots performance on the ground was seen coming a mile away. New England rushed for an astonishing 234 yards, with LeGarrette Blount leading the charge, rumbling for four touchdowns and a team playoff record-tying 166 yards.
Feeling a little chesty after this prediction, we took to twitter…
Yeah, we were money on this paragraph. pic.twitter.com/SnPIeQRvm2
— HipHopSportsReport (@HHSReport) January 12, 2014
On the NFC side, HHSR took to twitter to remind the viewing public that in the preseason, we correctly predicted the not only the participants in the NFC championship game, but the venue in which the game would take place. The tweet actually caught a little flack, as people were quick to point out that the 49ers and Seahawks were two of the favorites in the conference coming into 2013. While true, many of the “experts” had the Packers or Falcons winning the conference. Furthermore, picking those two squads as the two best in the NFC doesn’t guarantee a playoff matchup would be played in Seattle, or in the NFC Championship (the playoff seeding alone could’ve thrown this off), and few media outlets (if any) made an NFC title game prediction in the first place.
So, without further ado…
Just trying to establish some credibility here people. Cut me a break.
Anyway, on to the AFC and NFC Championship games.
NFC Championship Game: San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
These two teams meet twice each season and it definitely seemed like both squads spent last offseason specifically trying to one-up the other. Similar in just about every way, the Niners and Seahawks should probably have more mutual admiration than disdain for one another— but we all know that isn’t the case. Sunday’s game will no doubt be filled jealously and hate, much like when the Rocket went up against the Hitman, his own brother, at Wrestlemania X.
San Francisco has all the reason in the world to be confident. They’ve played each of the last two weeks and have beaten two pretty damn good football teams on the road. Colin Kaepernick has now won more road playoff games as a starting quarterback than Steve Young and Joe Montana combined! The Niners are now 7-0 since the return of Michael Crabtree and have won eight straight overall. Due to the fact that the Seahawks did not look great at all times against the Saints, and because Percy Harvin will once again be out of the lineup this weekend, the 49ers (3.5 point underdogs) have become the sexy pick from many pundits.
It’s almost as if they’ve forgotten the Seahawks have lost one home game in the last two years and have combined to beat the Niners 71-16 the last two games they’ve played at CenturyLink Field in Seattle. This game will obviously be much closer, but this will likely come down to which offensive/defense lines can impose its will on the other for four quarters. For whatever reason, this task has been virtually impossible to do against the Hawks when playing at home.
Sidebar: While the impact of the 12th Man on football games played up there is palpable, the notion that the people from that city are louder than people from other cities needs to be debunked. The acoustics of the stadium allows for it, and leave it to standup comedian Bill Burr to put Seattle’s loudness record into perspective.
Michael Crabtree and Richard Sherman will fight, trash talk and beg for flags on Sunday. Oh, they’ll play a little football too.
Marshawn Lynch has had more success running the ball against San Fran than just about anybody the last few years. Please believe Jim Harbaugh is aware of this and will likely sellout to stop him, especially since Russell Wilson has struggled with his accuracy of late. Expect both coaches to spy the other team’s mobile QB in an attempt to keep them the pocket. The quarterback that has more success completing passes from the pocket will likely go a long way towards deciding this game. Interestingly, the legendary Montana recently said Kaepernick needs to do exactly this if he wants to be more successful (this sounds more like good advice and a motivational tool than anything else).
The Niners are superior to the Seahawks at the skill positions, but Seattle has the better defense. Yes, the Seahawks have a better defense. Yeah, it’s close, but don’t get too cute on this one. First against the pass, seventh against the run, eighth in sacks, first in yards allowed and points allowed per game and first in takeaways. This isn’t up for discussion.
For all the 49ers recent dominance over the Packers, they haven’t even begun to figure out Seattle. They were anything but dominant when they beat Pete Carroll’s crew at home in December (the same can be said for last year’s contest at Candlestick). In fact, the at no point in the December game did San Francisco look like the better team. That counts for something.
If you had to pick the team that appears to be most capable of going into Seattle and winning a playoff game, it would be the San Francisco 49ers. But (*clears throat*) as stated at the start of the year, “Football fans everywhere will be rewarded with a Carroll v. Harbaugh conference championship game in January 2014…in Seattle…where the Seahawks will not lose.”
A 49er victory is quite possible, but we’re sticking with the Seahawks.
AFC Championship Game: New England Patriots at Denver Broncos
Despite the fact that both of these future Hall of Fame quarterbacks should be able to move the ball with ease on the opposing defense, the winner of this game (like most games) should be the team that wins the battle in the trenches…
Thus concludes the boring portion of the AFC title game breakdown.
By the time you read this, you should already have Brady/Manning XV coming out of your ears. But the importance of this game as it relates to the career of one of these legends cannot be overstated. As BleacherReport accurately put it, “It’s Magic and Bird. It’s Ali and Frazier, Chamberlain and Russell, Nicklaus and Palmer”.
Yes, it’s that good. A win for Peyton Manning and his Broncos Sunday afternoon would not only send him to his third Super Bowl, but it would also even up his playoff record against his New England nemesis. Most importantly though, a win for Manning on Sunday would mean he didn’t lose, something that, as we’ve chronicled, has happened far too often to him in January’s past.
Let’s be clear: In no way does a win for Manning over Brady and Belichick cement his place above Brady on the pantheon of quarterbacks in the Super Bowl era. It just doesn’t. And given everything that’s happened to the Patriots this year (season-ending injuries to starters Gronkowski, Wilfork, Mayo, Sebastian Vollmer & Tommy Kelly, the Aaron Hernanedz saga, losing Welker and Woodhead in free agency, significant injuries to Aqib Talib, Danny Amendola and Shane Vereen), and everything that’s fallen into place for the Broncos, there is no excuse for Peyton Manning to lose this game.
Sidebar: This isn’t to say the Broncos haven’t overcome adversity. They’ve lost Chris Harris, Ryan Clady and Von Miller for the season, lost Elvis Dumervil for the dumbest reason ever, lost Welker and Champ Bailey for significant stretches and their head coach had heart surgery midseason. But even with all that, their season hasn’t been half as taxing as New England’s.
On the other hand, a win for Tom Brady on Sunday would forever alter the very foundation of the argument itself, shifting it from “Brady or Manning?” to “Why are we even debating this?”
There probably hasn’t been a more fun sports debate in the 21st century— it’s like NaS vs Jay Z in 2001 (to throw in one more unnecessary analogy). But in reality, Brady has always been the superior signal-caller. Look no further than the flimsy arguments that Manning supports put forth in an attempt to discredit #12.
1) Spygate– A foolish argument since the Patriots have had a perfect regular season, advanced to two Super Bowls (narrowly losing both), four AFC championship games and Brady has won two MVPs and set numerous passing records, all AFTER Spygate went down.
Sidebar: The argument that Brady hasn’t won a title in nine years goes right along with this. As if going to the Super Bowl and losing is somehow more of a sin than not getting there at all, or missing the playoffs entirely. Jack Nicklaus is always recognized for not only winning the most major golf tournaments, he’s also praised for being the runner-up 19 times. Brady’s drought doesn’t diminish what’s already in the history books.
Doesn’t it seem like while Brady usually pumps up his guys on the sideline, Peyton’s head is always buried in charts?
2) Peyton Never Had a Good Defense– While somewhat true — as Brady did have superior team defenses, particularly in the early years — Peyton has played with his share of talented defenders. He’s had years under his belt with Dwight Freeney, Robert Mathis, Bob Sanders and Von Miller, all of whom are arguably better than any single defensive player that Brady ever called a teammate. Hell, Bob Sanders’ out-of-this-world defense against the run is the primary reason Peyton has the only championship he owns, and Sanders would later win NFL Defensive Player of the Year! Brady never had that.
Moreover, Brady dragged the 2011 Patriots back to the Super Bowl, a team whose defense allowed the third-most passing yards in a single season of any team in NFL history! So if Peyton is that good, couldn’t he overcome a shaky defense just once?
Sidebar: It’s also hilarious how Peyton apologists love to blame the lack of a defense or other team dynamics for his playoff shortcomings, yet his defense/teammates are never praised for Manning’s .696 career regular season win percentage. That’s all Peyton!
And…
3) Brady Has a Hall of Fame Coach– Also true. Although Manning did once play for Tony Dungy, who took the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to an NFC Championship game appearance, and now plays for John Fox, who once took the Carolina Panthers to a Super Bowl. And while 2013 is possibly the best coaching job he’s ever done, Bill Belichick is still a sub .500 NFL head coach…without Tom Brady.
Sidebar: It should be pointed out that Belichick is a DEFENSIVE coach. Not to say he can’t coach offense, but people who give him a disproportionate amount of credit Brady’s success as a passer are mistaken.
People like to reference Peyton’s struggles in cold weather. His overall postseason struggles are well-documented (if still not accepted by the masses). Peyton Manning is commonly known as “the greatest regular season quarterback in NFL history”, which is really a backhanded compliment, and tells you everything you need to know about this rivalry.
There are no qualifiers for Tom Brady.
Warm weather, cold weather; defense, no defense; star teammates, no star teammates; indoors, outdoors; regular season, playoffs; it doesn’t matter. Brady still wins more than any other quarterback. And this Sunday, he and his Patriots are right where they want to be: back in their natural role as underdogs.
A win for #12 will also serve as the official changing of the guard of Brady’s arch nemesis, from Manning (or the Mannings) to father time. At 36, Brady is clearly running short on it, and will have had a decade to advance from three championships to four. If his Patriots blow another shot at or opportunity in the big game, how confident will he be in his ability to guide the Pats back to the title after this many consecutive failures? How many more shots will he have at Joe Montana and quarterback immortality? People are already attempting to chip away at his legacy, a legacy that appeared to be teflon in 2005.
Okay y’all, here comes the fun part…where we undermine everything you just read.
Denver does have the best offense of all time and a capable (on rare occasions, like last week) defense. Peyton Manning is absolutely one of the great athletes to ever lace a pair of cleats. They should’ve beat the Patriots in New England in Week 12, and really only lost on a fluke bounce of the football.
All surprises from this NFL season should be deaded at this point. Nothing should shock you this weekend (the season’s final surprise came last week when Andrew Luck was told to hand the ball to Trent Richardson on 2nd and goal). Any combination of teams in the Super Bowl will make for a deserving and entertaining game.
Ultimately, the Patriots and Seahawks are the pick to make it to MetLife Stadium. Over the course of this site’s brief existence, there aren’t two football team’s we’ve stuck by more than New England and Seattle.
Sometimes it takes courage to cling to your convictions. Seattle being our preseason pick out of the NFC, Brady being touted as superior to Manning (especially in the playoffs)— theses are the type of calls that can backfire with the quickness. A 49ers/Broncos Super Bowl is very possible, but a Seahawks/Patriots Super Bowl just feels right.
At least it does here. But we’ve been wrong before.