It’s a funny thing when you make picks. Sometimes, you go with your gut; other times you go with your heart. Normally, your brain is the organ tasked with making decisions of this realm, and your brain is usually most influenced by what the eyes have already seen before.
Sixteen games of data showed us the Chiefs defense was the worst in the league. And even though their metrics had been markedly better at home, it was difficult to predict the defensive shellacking they put on a Colts team that, sans a Week 13 shutout loss at Jacksonville, had averaged 30.2 points per contest since Week 5. It was equally shocking to see the Rams limit the NFL’s leading rusher to just 47 yards on 20 carries (including 15 yards on one run) after surrendering a league-worst 5.1 yards per carry.
But that’s what makes the playoffs special. The cream rises to the top, and there’s a reason why the top two seeds in each conference are the four remaining teams vying for Lord Lombardi.
A quick note on the Divisional Round—we went 2-2 last weekend (1-3 against the spread) and now stand at 6-6 on the postseason. It’s not the most impressive record, but hell, we picked five upsets out of eight games! That takes balls, my friend.
As for the no longer defending champs, we never could quite peg the Eagles. Following their upset win against the Falcons last January, we incorrectly picked Philly’s next four playoff games. They’re gone now. Naturally, we’ll now go on an unprecedented hot streak. Eagles fans though can take solace knowing that their L may be an issue of attrition, not ability.
Let’s look ahead to Championship Sunday—each of these games have “classic” potential.
Sidebar: Ya boy currently sits at 39-17 in HHSR history in the first two rounds of the playoffs and 6-6 on Championship Weekend.
Los Angeles Rams #2 at New Orleans Saints #1 (-3)
Isn’t it funny how many pundits have claimed the Patriots can’t win on Sunday because they played so well last week? Why is it none of them have applied this logic to the Rams (or Chiefs)? In fact, the only team that advanced that didn’t play well for significant stretches of the game was the Saints. But here’s New Orleans, hosting the NFC Championship Game having never lost a home playoff game with Drew Brees and Sean Payton.
Despite sleepwalking through the first 15 minutes against the Eagles, the Saints rallied, and got some of magic playoff juju to rub off onto Alshon Jeffery’s hands, making them too slick to hold onto a Nick Foles slant pass in the final seconds. Make no mistake: The Eagles WOULD HAVE won that game if not for Jeffery’s drop; it truly is better to be lucky than good.
When you’re a receiver named “Mike”, and you’re Twitter handle is @Cantguardmike, you’re probably pretty damn good at your job. Some believe the presence of Aqib Talib will slow down Michael Thomas…those people would be wrong. Talib, a talented veteran corner, doesn’t stand a chance against Thomas one-on-one, especially if Thomas lines up in the slot. Wade Phillips may easily attempt to take Thomas away, but that won’t effect Drew Brees, who specializes in sharing the wealth amongst many backs and receivers.
The game will likely come down to the more effective rushing attack. Nobody would’ve thought Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram vs. Todd Gurley and Mike Tolbert CJ Anderson would be the matchup that would decide a Super Bowl participant four weeks ago, but Anderson’s reemergence has been a godsend for the hobbled Gurley. Both rushed for over 100 yards and a touchdown against the Cowboys, while Ingram and Kamara were relatively quiet last week.
Much like the Chiefs, the Rams run defense will have to prove once again the force we saw against Dallas wasn’t a fluke. The smart money says it was, even with Aaron Donald Aaron Donalding the game up. New Orleans’ run defense will surely be tested with DT Sheldon Rankins out with a torn Achilles, especially considering they ran it at 4.8 yards a pop in their November meeting. L.A.’s problem was they got down big early, and was unable to ride Gurley as much as they would’ve liked. Sean McVay will make it a point to do this on Sunday, which will open up the Rams’ wildly efficient play action game.
Winning a Divisional Round home playoff game wasn’t the ultimate goal for the Rams, but it’s an improvement from last year. The Saints were robbed in 2018, a year many believed they would’ve represented the NFC in Minneapolis (HHSR did). This season, they’re the ones doing the robbing (note Ingram & Kamara above). And it feels like redemption for Drew Brees, who will use his run game, timely passing, and insane home field to finally get the opportunity to play in his second Super Bowl, nearly a full decade after his first. Meanwhile, Jared Goff is almost ready to take the next step. Almost.
Saints win by three.
New England Patriots #2 at Kansas City Chiefs #1 (-3)
After dominating the Chargers in all three phases for four quarters, Tom Brady and the Patriots return to the AFC Championship Game—their eighth straight and a staggering 13th overall during the Brady/Belichick era. The Pats are fully back in touch with their inner-underdog, a position the coach & QB quite familiar with, as it’s the same position they were in when this dynasty was launched. New England however hasn’t won a playoff road game since January 2007. Brady & Co. is 0-3 since then in the playoffs with losses at Indy and at Denver twice (bravo, Peyton Manning).
That’s just the latest way the talking heads have tried to discredit the Patriots run (more on this later). The lesson last week was that the more talented home team (Kansas City) was fully aware of having not won a playoff game in front of their fans in a quarter century. Everybody pointed it out, including this website. It became a singular mission for the Chiefs to end that horrific drought.
It’s possible that last week was their Super Bowl.
How else do you explain Kansas City’s o-line completely blowing the Colts off the ball? How else do you explain the utter domination that was the Chiefs d-line against an Indy offensive line that had been the league’s best since early October? Yes, KC possesses the third-highest scoring offense in NFL history, but they only scored 17 points in the last 51 minutes of the Colts game, seven of those coming in garbage time. With the temperature Sunday likely in the teens, it stands to reason the Chiefs offense won’t be humming along like it has been, even if future MVP Pat Mahomes is unfazed by the moment (he won’t be).
The Chiefs are more talented than the Patriots. But we told you last week that being out-manned never stopped the New England machine before. This comment should tell us all we need to know about the Patriots’ preparedness coming into the AFC Title Game. The problem is they won’t cruise through Kansas City like they did L.A. Adversity will hit them, and although they have the heart of a champion (okay, so that didn’t get the Eagles very far), whether or not the Patriots have the talent to withstand it is another question.
The five-time champions should be trying to scheme Tyreek Hill out of the game, especially after he shredded them for 142 yards, and three scores (all in the second half) a few months ago. It’s unlikely they’ll be able to take away Hill AND tight end extraordinaire/hamburger pitchman Travis Kelce (hamburger not to be confused with hamberder). If given the choice, you must take Hill out—the Pats “opted” to restrict Kelce in the first meeting (five catches, 61 yards) and nearly lost.
Travis Kelce has supplanted Rob Gronkowski as the to TE in the game, but that doesn’t mean Gronk doesn’t have something left in the tank.
While ya boy missed on the Chiefs last week, we correctly informed you that Damien Williams has performed better than admirably in the absence of Kareem Hunt, notching 154 yards and a touchdown on 31 touches last week. Hunt destroyed the Patriots in his two career meetings versus New England. If nothing else, Andy Reid should know how to properly deploy Williams, which will be critical in Sunday’s climate.
We also mentioned James White’s impact on the last podcast. “Sweet Feet” caught everything last week—his presence should offset the Chiefs pass rush. Like most games against New England, getting pressure on Brady with four defenders will be key in deciding this game. Sony Michel had one of his best games as a Patriot last week, scoring three TDs in the first half. He also roughed up the Chiefs in their prior meeting (106 yards, two TDs) and should soften up the KC D…unless last week wasn’t a fluke. Still, Kansas City needs more that one solid defensive effort before we can be expected to fully buy in.
Just as the Chiefs home playoff drought was hyped up, so too is the Patriots road playoff drought. New England is keenly aware they haven’t won a road postseason game in 12 years. And though they haven’t had to very often, it provides all the added motivation a five-time champion might need for what would otherwise be a garden-variety AFC Championship Game.
Belichick and Brady sneak out of Arrowhead with a W like thieves in the night to reach their ninth Super Bowl.
Saints/Patriots seems to be a popular pick by the general public, which means the smart pick is Chiefs/Rams. But we’re rolling with it, with the hopes that for once the public actually got it right.