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Picking games during the NFL playoffs has become a staple at HHSR. Longtime followers know we customarily hit you with a column for each round of the postseason, featuring our picks and our rationale. Coming into these playoffs, we held a 50-27 all-time record picking games straight up. In lieu of traditional columns in the first two rounds, we gifted the world our Wildcard and Divisional Round picks via Twitter.

Without further ado, here are those picks:

We currently sit at 5-3 picking games this postseason, raising our all-time mark to 55-30. And though weā€™ve gotten three wrong, two of them feels like they were right based on the explanations offered in the tweets.

You may be wondering, “Is this the type of website that tries to spin it so clearly inaccurate predictions still appear accurate?”

Of course it is!

#6 Tennessee Titans at #2 Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5)

Contrary to popular belief, the Chiefs falling behind 24-0 was absolutely predictable. Since Andy Reid landed inĀ KC, his Chiefs have lost three home playoff games, one in each of the last threeĀ seasons, including a loss to the Titans in 2018. Reid-led teams also lost three home playoff games during his tenure in Philadelphia (two NFC Championship gamesā€”2003 and 2004).

Thereā€™s only so much shame in losing playoff games, because theyā€™re extremely hard to win (ask Drew Brees). But losing games like these carry a hint of ignominy because not only do you have home field advantage, youā€™re at home for a reason. In theory, you have the better team with the better record, plus a crowd that spent all day drinking themselves stupid on your side. Reid has a way of pulling out dreadful defeats from the jaws of certain victory. So while the Chiefs are heavy favorites Sunday, they’ve been in this position before and lost, even with Patrick Mahomes. And thereā€™s little reason to think that falling behind 24-0 last week couldnā€™t happen this weekend against a team that already beat them in November.

Things are lining up beautifully for Tennessee. They have the recent playoff W and the Week 11 W in their back pockets, both games having featured a heavy dosage of Derrick Henry, who is brutalizing defenses at a historic clip. They have a style that translates in all weather and is actually preferred for playoff football. Their confidence is on par with any of the other double-digit win teams remaining, and they’re “not supposed to be here”. To say they’re playing with house money would be the understatement of the year. Perhaps most importantly, Mike Vrabel has established himself as arguably the best young coach in the game, void of the pomp and circumstance of a flashy offense or football sabermetrics.

Three weeks ago, if you would’ve said the Titans’ (or any team for that matter) road to Super Bowl LIV would be wins at New England, at Baltimore and at Kansas City, you’d naturally assume they had no chance. But Tennessee has made the impossible seem quite possible. They truly feel like they can and will win this game, but beating the last three MVPs (assuming Lamar Jackson wins) in succession all on their home fields may prove to be a mountain to tall to scale.

KC’s mildly improved defense and finally whole offense will prove to be a little too much. Mahomes, Hill, Kelce, Williams, Watkins, Robinson and Hardman are only just now all healthy and in a rhythm at the same time this year. For Chiefs fans, the hope is Kansas City got their dud out of the way and still managed to win. Andy Reid can “happen” at any moment, but he did make it to one Super Bowl in Philly, right?

A Titans victory wouldn’t be the least bit shocking, and they will cover courtesy of King Henry’s sheer force of will, but the Chiefs advance in a game that could easily be decided by a bogus officiating call against Tennessee. Because does the league really want Ryan Tannehill in the Super Bowl when they could have Patrick Mahomes?

Probably not.

#2 Green Bay Packers at #1 San Fransisco 49ers (-7.5)

The easy thing to do would be to pick the Niners in a route, as they demolished the Pack in Week 12 37-8. Truth be told, while many just climbed aboard the San Fran bandwagon, we’ve been down for years, having loved just about every move John Lynch has made since becoming GM. Ya boy continued to be impressed by the 49ers during the season. They lost three games this year, all in the final seconds. They proved they could defeat tough opponents on any field in different ways. To be honest, the 49ers were our pre-playoffs Super Bowl champion pick (and to show we’re telling the truth, we had them beating New England, which was obviously not close to being correct).

Sidebar: The only thing we got wrong was we assumed Reuben Foster would be a big part of this success. Can’t win ’em all though.Ā 

Green Bay offers a more balanced attack, but last week they couldn’t get Aaron Jones running efficiently, so they fell back on old habits: Aaron Rodgers chucking it to Davante Adams again and again and again. And then again. This won’t be enough to defeat a Niners defense that was among the best in football. And as for the Packers improved defenseā€”they’ll be tested by a 49ers team that was the second-highest scoring attack in the league. You probably didn’t know that because you assumed they were all defense and Jimmy Garoppolo’s numbers didn’t blow you away. But it’s trueā€”they averaged 29.9 points per contest.

Sidebar: Another interesting Jimmy G stat: According to Fox Sports, this season and postseason in the fourth quarter and overtime, Garoppolo is completing 67.5% of his passes, with six TDs and one pick with a 102.4 passer rating.

Jones may have more running room this week, however Rodgers will have his hands full with one trusted target going up against the NFL’s top secondary. The Packers’ best bet may be to incorporate Jones and Jamaal Williams into the pass-catching game, but the risk averse Rodgers will be forced to make some tougher throws than he’d like if his team will have any chance. Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith deserve shoutouts for their ability to pressure the quarterback, which they’ll need to do repeatedly on Sunday.

But even when you compare the seasons these team’s had, it’s not particularly close. Both were 13-3, but the 49ers boast wins versus GB, at New Orleans and at Seattle (with losses to Baltimore and Seattle at the gun), while the Packers only impressive wins were over the Vikings (twice) and at KC minus Mahomes.

Take the points simply because it’s a lot of points, but the Niners are the better team and should be able to move the ball through creative playcalling and and balanced run/pass attack, while largely stifling Rodgers. They will head to Miami for an entertaining matchup against the Chiefs.

Hold up…everybody and they mama is picking the Chiefs and 49ers…

Welp, enjoy your Titans/Packers Super Bowl!