Log In Register
Lost your password?
A password will be e-mailed to you.

When you get into the business of making predictions, you find yourself rooting fanatically for your picks. Why? Because what’s more fun that looking smart about sports? Nothing! That’s why we all play fantasy football, even if there’s little correlation between the two (surprise!). So when the Saints and Vikings kicked off on Sunday afternoon, I was even more invested than usual, given the tantalizing proposition of going 4-0 on picks was hanging in the balance like a Money in the Bank match.

Go ahead—scour the internet and find someone who had the Eagles, Pats, Jags AND Saints. That’s two road teams and three underdogs. And YA BOY WAS RIGHT! That is, until I wasn’t.

Here’s what I’ve learned: If the only game you missed for the weekend was one you had called correctly until one of the five most miraculous plays in NFL history that flipped the outcome as time expired, you learn to live with it. Besides, the guy who made the game-winning catch was the same guy we praised effusively in last week’s column, calling him a top five wide receiver. So even with Marcus Williams turning in the worst attempt at a tackle ever to make it all possible (seriously, I’ve seen better tackling on this field), we’re taking credit for mentioning Stefon Diggs as a dynamic playmaker.

And with that, the Case Keenum-led Vikings joined the Blake Bortles-led Jaguars and the Nick Foles-led Eagles in the Conference Championship. While we’re on the subject of highlighting clairvoyant behavior at HHSR, it’s worth noting we spent time in our preseason preview talking about expanding our thinking on quarterbacks who are able to lead a team to a Super Bowl (peep the 20:54 mark). When guys like Flacco, Eli, Dilfer and Brad Johnson are all waiving rings while Marino, McNabb, Rivers and Romo have their hands in their pockets, the issue probably requires some revisiting. Then we told you last week there was no way we could just pencil the four best quarterbacks into Championship Sunday. So it’s really not all that shocking that we ended up with these four teams.

Sidebar: Went 3-1 overall and 3-0-1 against the spread, bringing our 2017 playoff totals to 6-1-1 versus the spread and 6-2 overall. Ya boy is now 35-13 all-time in the first two rounds of the playoffs and 5-5 on Championship Weekend.

(#3) Jacksonville Jaguars at (#1) New England Patriots (-7.5)

Playoff. Jet. Fuel.

Sidebar: You can check last week’s column if you missed that reference.

Tom Brady was marvelous on Sunday against Tennessee. He went 35-53 for 337 yards, three touchdowns and zero turnovers, but the competition now gets significantly stiffer. While Jacksonville gave up 42 points against the Steelers, they did force two Ben Roethlisberger turnovers (one went for a scoop & score) and two other turnovers on downs. Pittsburgh’s stats were misleading—two of their scores came on what were essentially fourth down Hail Mary’s, Antonio Brown made two spectacular touchdown grabs and they scored on the final play of the game when the outcome was already decided. Jacksonville thoroughly outplayed Pittsburgh; it comes as no surprise that Steelers offensive coordinator Todd Haley was fired this week (told you not to trust that guy).

The Jags have all the makings of a team that can beat the Patriots in the playoffs.

  • Jacksonville gets after the quarterback (second in the NFL in sacks).
  • Jacksonville forces turnovers (second in the NFL in takeaways).
  • Jacksonville can play keep away (sixth in the NFL in time of possession).
  • Jacksonville likes to score early (fifth in the NFL in first quarter scoring).
  • Jacksonville has a shit-ton of confidence…

They’re basically the Patriots worst nightmare. New England would’ve much rather played the undisciplined, predictable Steelers. Instead, they get a plucky young upstart playing with house money, who looks like a younger version of the Baltimore Ravens. Jacksonville is dangerous, which is why it’s important for New England to get off to a fast start, lest the Jags gain even more confidence.

Sidebar: The Patriots racked up eight sacks themselves last week and shut down Derrick Henry. They’ll need to show up again this week and do what the Steelers couldn’t: Stop that gunslinger Blake Bortles!

For all their redeeming qualities though, Jacksonville’s pass defense has been leaky of late. They gave up a 52-yard touchdown to Blaine Gaberrt and the Cardinals, and 61-yard and 74-yard TD receptions to the Seahawks; they also gave up 44 to San Fransisco before letting Pittsburgh repeatedly burn them for junk touchdowns. If there’s any weakness in the Jacksonville secondary, Brady will expose it using the speedy Brandin Cooks downfield.

The Pats will also deploy this running back wrinkle that is a new concept for them, despite Brady and Belichick being together for 18 seasons. The three-headed monster of Dion Lewis, James White and Rex Burkhead (he’ll return this week) give the Patriots a trio of versatile backs that will stretch a defense thin as they’re forced to cover sideline to sideline. The Patriots protected Brady and played with tempo last week and the Titans had no answer. The Jags may have to adjust to this style as well.

Let’s be honest: The Jags will have to adjust to damn near everything. Nobody on their team, with the exception of Malik Jackson, has Championship Game experience. In fact, according to Fox Sports, the Pats have eight times the playoff experience of the Jags. Granted, Pittsburgh had more too, but as we’ve learned, an experience discrepancy of this level will likely show itself during the game. New England is in it’s seventh straight AFC Championship Game. SEVEN!!! You can do damn near anything seven times in a row and it’ll be impressive.

The Five Ring King was showing off last week—expect this week to be much different. This contest has an ugly 55% completion, 230 yard, one TD (with a rushing TD), two pick performance written all over it for Brady. Jacksonville will make his life miserable for much of the day. This game will be close, the Jags will cover, and an upset is very possible. But New England’s guile and big-game reps will carry them to yet another Super Sunday.

(#2) Minnesota Vikings (-3) at (#1) Philadelphia Eagles

This NFC Championship Game preview is brought to you by Stefon Diggs.

Coming off the emotional high that was The Minneapolis Miracle, and leaving a cushy dome to play outdoors against a home underdog, ordinarily the Vikings would be ripe for an upset. Fortunately for them, the Eagles are also coming off the emotional high of winning a home game essentially on the final play.

Both teams are feeling like teams of destiny. One team just pulled off an all-time comeback, while the other is running around rocking dog masks as a sign of team solidarity. However, destiny is nothing without the action to fuel it.

Nick Foles put up 34 points in his first game as a starter. The further removed we get from that game though, the more it’s looking like an aberration gifted by a terrible Giants defense. In the last three games (two regular season, one playoff), the Eagles offense with Foles has generated 13, 0 and 15 points (aka 9.3 points per game), including only two offensive touchdowns. The Vikings gave up a league low 15.8 ppg. What does that tell you? It means the Eagles will be counting their blessings if their offense can scrape together more than 10 points.

This puts a tremendous amount of pressure on the Philly defense. It’s one of the better units in football, no doubt. But it’s uncertain whether or not they’ll be able to slow down the underrated Stefon Diggs and the reliable Adam Thielen for 60 minutes. This postseason could be a breakout one for Diggs, who finished the Saints game with six catches, 137 yards and the winning touchdown.

“He’s what some guys might call a thundercat — a young kid who comes into the league and is incredibly explosive. He’s fast, he’s quick, and he’s a home run hitter. He can burn you on a deep route or he can catch a slant and take it 70 yards […] he’s a heck of a football player […] I don’t think he’ll be underrated for too long.”

– Richard Sherman on Stefon Diggs

Philadelphia will need to do a better job at establishing a run game if they’re going to win Sunday. Jay Ajayi fumbled early against Atlanta and was never really able to get it going after that. Minnesota has a stifling run defense though, allowing the fifth fewest yards per carry in the NFL. The Eagles run D is equally stout, but with Foles’ apparent limitations (team imposed, or otherwise), the Vikes won’t have to rely nearly as heavily on their ground game.

Case Keenum and Minnesota’s pass catching playmakers will be the difference in the game. The Vikes win and cover in a competitive game against a talented Eagles team that might’ve been one ACL away from a Super Bowl appearance.

Here’s the only thing: ERRRBODY is picking the Vikings and Patriots! And when ERRRBODY picks something, it usually doesn’t happen. I’m making this pick at the risk of rolling with the often incorrect masses. I picked the Jags over the Steelers because I thought they were the better team. Same with Eagles and Falcons. I believe the Patriots and Vikings are better, so there you go. Although an upset of either team shouldn’t be deemed that much of a surprise.

Besides, Brady, Belichick and the juggernaut Patriots rising above the media scrutiny (again) and taking on the snake-bitten team of destiny playing in their home stadium is a far more compelling Super Bowl storyline than anything the Jags and Eagles could muster. The league knows this too. Therefore, after by all accounts a shitty NFL season, Roger Goodell has to make this game happen. Right?

Kenneth’s Super Bowl Pick: Patriots vs. Vikings

Anthony’s Super Bowl Pick: Patriots vs. Vikings