The Ravens and Giants were both four seeds. Two years prior, the Packers were a six seed, and the year before that, the Giants were a five seed. Since 2004, only one team has won the Super Bowl as the top seed in their conference (the 2009 New Orleans Saints).
What can we conclude from all this? Albeit a small sample size, it’s a reflection of the rampant parody within the modern day NFL.
This idea played into HHSR’s preseason championship pick in 2012, as it appears as though teams that tend to go largely unnoticed during the season but play their best football late in the year have the best shot at having the confetti fall down on them in February.
Meet the Houston Texans. A team that — after hitting rock bottom five years ago — has gradually improved each year (2010 notwithstanding) and are now a perennial power in the AFC. People have begun to take their talent for granted; the once sexy pick to come out of the AFC barely gets a mention these days after making the playoffs two straight years. No longer viewed as an “up and comer”, when you hear people talk about Houston, it’s always “Yeaa-aahhh don’t know about the Texans. I just don’t trust em”. Quarterback Matt Schaub has received the brunt of the criticism, assuming the narrative of “the guy who can’t get it done” under the bright lights.
Houston bowed out in the divisional playoff round in 2011 and 2012, however Schaub didn’t play their first postseason loss to Baltimore (you may recall third-string QB T.J. Yates nearly knocking off the Ravens) and they dropped their 2012 game to the New England Patriots. But is there really any shame in losing in the playoffs to the Patriots in Gillette Stadium? A team that goes to the AFC Championship game basically every year?
Houston’s journey back to the playoffs for the third consecutive year begins in the AFC South, where they are blessed with what looks to be one of the worst divisions in the league. A decent amount of uncertainty exists within the South, but one thing is for sure: The Jacksonville Jaguars will not be a good football team.
At the risk of further pissing off Jags fans — who did not take too kindly to our MJD piece last summer, and have thrown shots at your boy on twitter after some wise cracks at their team’s expense — Jacksonville will be incredibly lucky to win five games this season. They attempted to make something out of Blaine Gabbert, but it doesn’t appear to be in the cards for him to be a successful starting quarterback in the NFL (something yours truly and the incomparable Adam Clark, aka @adamtweetsnow on twitter, predicted prior to the 2011 Draft on the award-winning “All Football Show” radio program). The sooner new Jags coach Gus Bradley gets Chad Henne under center, the better. And the fact that that last sentence managed to appear in text tells you everything you need to know about the 2013 Jacksonville Jaguars.
Sidebar: The Jags got a pretty raw deal last year. They completely bottomed out, but the draft sucked and there were no elite QBs to be had at the top. And the struggles of Blaine Gabbert (or “Gabbo” as any Simpsons fanatic should call him) only highlights our theory of the importance of athletes having cool names. You can win with a guy named “Drew Brees”. You can win with a guy named “Joe Montana”. But you just cannot win with a guy named “Blaine Gabbert”. You just can’t. “Blaine Gabbert” sounds like he should be working at Aeropostale, not leading a team down the field in the fourth quarter. This theory translates to basketball too. Harrison Barnes, you’ve been warned.
The Tennessee Titans are a difficult team to figure out. We thought they would be a surprise playoff team last season. Turns out they only thing surprising about them was how god awful Chris Johnson was for much of the year. In the end, Johnson finished with a very respectable 1,200 yard campaign, but he rushed for less than 30 yards in five games last season. Compare that to his epic 2009 run when he had eight games of over 130 rushing yards and observers were left wondering, “what the hell happened in Tennessee?!?!”
Best case scenario: “Blaine Gabbert” should be roaming the halls of Bayside High with Zack Morris & A.C. Slater.
Mike Munchak is in his second year as head coach, and being the Hall of Fame offensive lineman that he is, he must have been mortified at the Titans’ blocking last season. Naturally, they made Alabama’s Chance Warmack the 10th overall pick in the draft, who by all accounts appears to be real deal Holyfield. Pairing him with All-Pro Michael Roos will serve as a significant upgrade, as will the two free agent acquisitions they made for the o-line. The new unit dazzled in the preseason, proving that addressing a massive issue through the draft and free agency is still a novel concept. Who would’ve thought?
Jake Locker is in his third year and needs to turn the corner before Tennessee turns the corner as a franchise. Of course, expectations are rising for young signal-callers, which means this could be a make-or-break year for Locker. If the Titans want to maximize their efficiency as an offense, it would be wise to incorporate Locker’s mobility in offensive packages, not only because it puts Jake’s skills to use, but it will open up running lanes for Johnson, who had his best years when the ultra-mobile Vince Young was his quarterback. The Titans also gave up the most points per game last season, but scored nine non-offensive touchdowns. Suffice it to say a little more consistent play from the defense wouldn’t hurt the cause.
Last year, all of America was rooting for the Indianapolis Colts. Coach Chuck Pagano’s fight with leukemia was a heartfelt story that only the soulless couldn’t get behind. Thankfully, Pagano is healthy enough to return to the sidelines full-time, but from a football standpoint, he now has the daunting task of replicating last year’s playoff success with an extremely young group of players.
The inspirational story of Pagano was not the only thing that propelled the Colts into the playoffs one year after going 2-14. Indy benefited greatly from a soft schedule. Of the five eventual playoff teams they faced, three of them had to travel to Lucas Oil Stadium, where the Colts went 3-0. And offensive coordinator turned interim head coach Bruce Arians did a masterful job managing this team under extremely difficult conditions. Furthermore, coming off of a 2-14 campaign meant there were literally ZERO expectations. The Colts played with house money from beginning to end in 2012 and just making the playoffs was ostensibly their championship.
Now the smoke has cleared. Arians is gone— having taken a well-deserved head coaching opportunity in Arizona. Andrew Luck is now in year 2 A.P. (After Peyton) and he’s already given the proud fans of Indianapolis a taste of the postseason, something they became quite accustomed to during the Manning era. Some have been calling for the the Colts regression for weeks and given the circumstances, it’s easy to understand why. While much improved from two seasons ago, Indy’s roster still doesn’t have a ton of firepower on either side of the ball. Though many are fond of receiver T.Y. Hilton, if you subtract the aging Reggie Wayne from the equation, who on the Colts do you really view as a cornerstone guy besides Luck?
That said, the Colts will be competitive once again, but do not be shocked if they fall short of last season’s success.
AFC South Champion: Houston Texans
Houston is a prime candidate for an “under the radar” Super Bowl run. The Denver Broncos are the overwhelming favorite to win the AFC, while the Cincinnati Bengals are a sexy preseason pick to make the leap. The Baltimore Ravens are the defending champs that EVERYONE is already counting out (no exceptions here). Then there’s the New England Patriots— the old guard that actually had a worse summer than Lamar Odom. These five teams (along with Kansas City Chiefs) will make up the AFC playoff picture. Much like the NBA’s Western Conference playoffs last year, the seeding will likely play a large role in who makes it to MetLife Stadium.
The Bengals are still probably a year away from being a serious contender, though they possess the ability to get it done this year. But right now, the Texans own the Bengals. The Patriots own the Texans. The Ravens do not own the Pats, but they make life for Tom Brady miserable more than any other squad. And everybody seems to own Peyton Manning in the playoffs, which is why Denver cannot be picked to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.
The Broncos have the most talented and complete team in the conference, they should be there in the end. Year after year though, we’ve seen Peyton’s team crush it in the regular season, only to disintegrate in the postseason. Why should we believe any different now? Some writers are already crowning the Broncos, but other writers from those same publications crowned them last season (Now if you wanna crown them, THEN CROWN THEIR ASS! BUT THEY ARE WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE!!!). As great as he is, Peyton Manning has never done anything to earn the benefit of the doubt after New Year’s Day.
Which leads us back to Houston, our pick to make the Super Bowl from the AFC. With superstar pass rusher J.J. Watt already in the fold, plus the savvy signing of Ed Reed — arguably the greatest safety of all-time — they’ve bolstered an already talented defensive unit (Reed may be old, but he did intercept Colin Kaepernick in the Super Bowl). The Texans have the league’s best rushing attack, including Ben Tate who plays the Priest Holmes role to Arian Foster’s Jamal Lewis (Ben Tate needs to be starting for another NFL team. He’s too good to ride behind Foster). They also have Andre Johnson, a top flight veteran receiver, and a coach and quarterback combo that seem competent enough not to get in their own way. They do need to navigate a tougher schedule this year, but their dates with the NFC West powerhouses will show if the Texans are ready for the big time. If they can avoid the Patriots in the playoffs, the Texans can be the last team standing.
So why not Houston? They don’t call it “clutch city” for nothing, right?