A perennial favorite in the unfamiliar position of having his back against the ropes, our hero uses his cunning demeanor and fearless determination to inspire change and rescue his season from the depths of despair…
No, this has nothing to do with Patrick Mahomes against the Bills and everything to do with HHSR’s playoff picks!
Always a juggernaut during the Divisional Round, we went a PERFECT 4-0 last week (4-0 against the spread; 7-3 overall in the playoffs), raising our all-time record to 35-13 during Divisional weekend. We’re just a day away from knowing our participants in Super Bowl LVIII, but if you’re looking for a sneak preview of who that’ll be, you’ve come to the right website.
- 34-22 (.607) on Wildcard Weekend
- 35-13 (.729) on Divisional Round Weekend
- 11-11 (.500) in Conference Championships
- 7-4 (.636) in Super Bowls
- 87-50 (.635) All-Time
#3 Kansas City Chiefs at #1 Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)
This is unfolding as expected.
There was a giant ribbon on the Dolphins team plane when it arrived in Kansas City two weekends ago. That’s how much of a gift it was when the Chiefs drew a team from South Florida for an outdoor game with negative temperatures in the forecast. Then, the first road playoff game in the Patrick Mahomes era is against an arch nemesis whom, it’s been said, they have a mental edge over. We said last week “Kansas City will absolutely lean into this (first road game) narrative” and that it would “galvanize” the team. The night after the Chiefs pulled the upset, we see headlines entitled Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs relished ‘challenge’ of road win over Bills.
“Guys took it as a challenge,” Mahomes said. And now, to listen to the commentary around Mahomes and the Chiefs this week, you’d think that they’d already won another Super Bowl.
- Colin Cowherd called their victory “the rising of a perceived dead champion”.
- Shannon Sharpe said it was the best offensive game the Chiefs have had all year.
- Chris Russo called Mahomes the greatest quarterback of all-time.
- Mike Greenberg said Mahomes is the best he’s ever seen.
- Bomani Jones said the Chiefs won because they had “Jordan”, while the Bills had a QB that ain’t “Jordan”.
- Mina Kimes suggested Pat Mahomes is underrated.
- Kansas City native Nick Wright literally dropped four banners on his show in celebration of the win (an admittedly funny bit).
And this is all because…Tyler Bass missed a 44-yard field goal that could’ve forced overtime.
Okay, maybe not “all”. But following a game where everyone is now heaping endless praise on Mahomes and Andy Reid, it’s worth noting the Chiefs didn’t have a pass-catcher over 75 yards and didn’t have a rusher over 100; they scored three touchdowns—fine, but nothing spectacular; they lost the time of possession and turnover battles; had fewer first downs; were the worse team on 3rd down and got a friendlier whistle from the refs. And they needed that missed kick, plus a TON of other mistakes by the frightened Buffalo Bills just to get here.
Sidebar: Mahomes threw for 215 yards and two TDs against Buffalo. When young Tom Brady threw for around 200 yards and fewer than three TDs in a playoff win, he was called a “game manager”. When apex Mahomes does it, they call him the GOAT. It’s still a head-scratcher, man.
We’ve seen it so many times in 2023: the media crowns the team with the most impressive win the week prior as the league’s best, only for that team to fall flat their next game. Today, that’s unquestionably the Kansas City Chiefs.
Meanwhile, nobody is talking about the Baltimore Ravens.
They smoked the Texans in the second half and cruised to an easy W. Both Baltimore’s offense and defense performed better last week (including their quarterback) than Kansas City’s and guess what? They have been all year. The “win on the road” narrative is fun when everybody is hyped up to see it the first time. But now, can you do it again? With higher stakes against a better team?
KC has the ability to do it. Mahomes has the ability to summon greatness and outplay the Ravens. But it’s unlikely they will. Baltimore’s pass rush will begin to wear on Mahomes in the second half, especially with Joe Thuney ruled out. Expect the home team to get a few sacks and a timely turnover as Mahomes scrambles for answers. Again, the Chiefs are fully capable of winning this game, but it would take their best performance of the season and they probably emptied that clip last week.
You have to take the points with KC, but the Ravens will advance…unless the NFL really wants Taylor Swift in the Super Bowl (they just might), in which case, lots of luck, Baltimore. Enjoy the officiating!
#3 Detroit Lions at #1 San Francisco 49ers (-7.5)
Winning in the playoffs is almost never easy. So when the Lions barely slipped past the Baker Mayfield-led Bucs at home, we shouldn’t read too much into it. That was a quality victory for a franchise making their first conference championship since Hammer.
Sidebar: So you’re saying Michigan will win the CFP and the Lions could go to the Super Bowl in the same year??? Throw in Martin getting recognized at the Primetime Emmy Awards and Michigan has never been this up!
The same should be said for the 49ers. Though they were heavy favorites and trailed late to a team filled with guys who aren’t old enough to remember Hurricane Katrina, they won the game. Without Deebo Samuel, in sloppy conditions, down a touchdown as they entered the fourth quarter, they found a way through. Brock Purdy answered every criticism that has followed him. From showing his athleticism outside the pocket, to playing from behind and leading a game-winning drive on an night where he clearly didn’t have it, Brock delivered the signature performance of his career to date (although, we’re quick to forget the man has a 332 yard, 3 TD, 0 INT performance on his playoff résumé).
As much as national media continues to push the wildly false narrative that defense is irrelevant in football, it’s no accident that of the four remaining teams, three of them rank first, second and third in total defense in the playoffs. The other ranks 12th out of 14 teams—your Detroit Lions (and both of their games were at home). The Lions are also last amongst the final four teams in points allowed. And from the “crazy but true” file, Detroit has played 11 of their last 12 games indoors. The one outdoor game in that stretch was a two-touchdown loss at Chicago. The last outdoor game before that? A 32-point ass-kicking at Baltimore. It’s fair to wonder if this team, that hasn’t been stellar defensively, has what it takes to win outdoors on the road. The good news: the forecast actually calls for great weather on Sunday.
The Lions’ best bet is to turn this into a shootout—Detroit has put up at least 26 points in 10 of their 14 victories and at least 30 points in nine wins (regular season and playoffs combined). Jared Goff and Amon-Ra St. Brown have to make music together and Jahmyr Gibbs needs to touch the rock at least 15 times tomorrow to make this a reality. But it will be no small task. Kyle Shanahan’s offense (with or without Samuel) is potent enough to match points with Detroit, but the defense is where the separation lies. The 49ers have surrendered fewer than 20 points in 10 of their 13 wins. Detroit will need to jump out to an early lead and hope the Niners get tight in a way they didn’t last week; the Niners defense needs to show up to the game in the first half, unlike last week.
The Lions can win, but San Fransisco is just the more complete team, with home field and a massive experience edge. Both Purdy and Goff have exacted some measure of revenge this postseason, but Purdy’s added motivation comes from having his 2023 NFC Championship game cut short after four passes. Other than Kansas City, San Francisco has been football’s best team over the last five years, but they only have one Super Bowl appearance and no championships to show for it. They will add to that this weekend (and cover if Deebo is healthy; if not, take the points) to set up a Week 15 and Super Bowl XLVII rematch with the Ravens.