To recap, we went calk last week and finished 3-1 overall and 3-1 against the spread, raising our postseason record to 6-4 and 5-5 against the spread. That brings us to 80-40 (.667) all-time, and 31-13 (.705) in the Divisional Round, but we gotta do something about this 11-9 (.550) record in the Conference Championship.
Three of these four teams were still standing this weekend a year ago. Interestingly, we’re only missing the team that actually won the whole thing. HHSR incorrectly picked the Chiefs and 49ers last year—surely we wouldn’t pick those same two teams again, right??
#3 Cincinnati Bengals at #1 Kansas City Chiefs (-2)
Considering the location, the weather, the stakes, the talent of the opponent, the circumstances (Damar Hamlin in the building), and the domination, the Bengals taking the Bills apart last week was the most impressive playoff win any of us have seen in some time. We’ve seen bigger blowouts, but this was different type of dismantling of a team that had everything to play for, whom everyone picked to reach the Super Bowl before the season. A huge part of this was the exemplary coaching job by Zac Taylor and his staff. Think of this: Cincinnati had no dumb penalties, no stupid fights after plays, no lapses in clock management (like we saw from Elijah Mitchell), no turnovers, no beating themselves, no nervousness with a big lead, no getting away from their identity and no designs on throwing the ball 100 times in snowy conditions. It was a veritable clinic in coaching and execution.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs come in with a banged up superstar quarterback, leaving their chances on Sunday in doubt. Kansas City pulled out a gutty victory over Jacksonville, where system quarterback Patrick Mahomes authored a performance on a sprained ankle that was better than the box score would indicate.
But here’s what it gets interesting for the team hosting its fifth consecutive AFC Championship Game. Many Chiefs fans have been extremely overconfident in their team, which is odd considering to date they’ve won only a single championship in the Mahomes era. The truth is:
In essence, if you were annoyed by people picking Tampa to defeat Dallas because of the mystique of Tom Brady, then you can’t like Mahomes’ chances on Sunday either. We all know that if the situation were reversed as outlined above, no Chiefs fan would be picking the Bengals to win, citing all of the same reasons. And after what we saw in Buffalo, what would make anyone think the Bengals would be stupid enough to allow Travis Kelce to win the game by himself like he did against a Jaguars team whose defensive staff had to be comatose on the sideline?
Moreover, Kelce has been fairly limited in the three previous meetings between Mahomes and Joe Burrow, all of which were won by Cincinnati.
- Week 17 2021: 5 catches (7 targets), 25 yards, 1 TD
- 2022 AFC Championship Game: 10 catches (11 targets), 95 yards 1 TD
- Week 13 2022: 4 catches (6 targets), 56 yards, 0 TDs, 1 fumble lost
Two of these games were with Tyreek Hill (aka Steph Curry) in the same huddle. If last week (or last season’s AFCGC) was any indication, Taylor will have his team ready to play Sunday, which certainly includes not allowing Kelce to beat him. That leaves a hobbled Mahomes primarily throwing to a 30-year-old journeyman running back (Mckinnon), The Hyphen Boys (Marquez Valdez-Scantling and Juju Smith-Schuster) and some dude named Skyy (Moore).
For all the chesty talk we heard from #ChiefsKingdom about the Chiefs having not fallen off in the absence of Hill, THIS is the type of game that’s a true test, especially if Kansas City finds themselves down by two scores late. The Chiefs excelled at getting after the opposing quarterback, so pressuring Burrow will help (we wrongly thought Buffalo could do this, but they were different team without Von Miller). Although Steve Spagnuolo’s trademark blitz packages may not be enough to throw off Burrow, who has historically shredded defenses against the blitz. We should know within the first two possessions what type of afternoon it’ll be—if Burrow faces pressure, the Chiefs may be alright. If not, this game will look like the second half of last year’s AFC Championship.
Sidebar: Remember our initial thoughts on Joe Burrow coming into the NFL? You’ll want to re-listen to the 2020 Mark Draft (17:40 mark).
The line on this game has flipped repeatedly. Experts seem to like Cincy, but some talking heads are literally comparing Mahomes to LeBron and Jordan at this point. A lack-luster performance against the Ravens threw us off the scent a bit, but the Bengals are the pick here to return to the Super Bowl, despite all the convincing of themselves Chiefs fans will do this week (muscle memory is really the best thing you could point to). KC probably has the best coach and quarterback left in the tournament, so a win isn’t inconceivable. But they’re not the best team.
What makes this pick a fraught one would be all the counter-chestiness we’ve seen from the Bengals (Eli Apple making up serious ground on Freddie Mitchell as the worst player that talks the most trash in the 21st century) and even the mayor of Cincinnati himself. C’mon y’all. Bulletin board material is real; have we not learned anything from the Patriots?
#2 San Fransisco 49ers at #1 Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)
The Birdies vs the Purdys has all the makings of an absolute classic.
Here’s a quick summary of the Philadelphia’s performance against New York last week:
There were thoughts that the Eagles may have peaked too soon heading into last week…well that couldn’t be further from the truth. Philly Power Slap League smacked the Giants last week, proving once and for all that the Minnesota Vikings were as big of frauds as everyone thought.
The team stats page from this game is basically a hate crime. When you consider the Eagles won handily while forcing only one turnover, no defensive or special teams touchdowns and only 148 passing yards, you know New York was just getting mauled up front. With 44 carries for 268 yards and three TDs, the Eagles had three different rushers average over five yards a carry and none of them was Jalen Hurts.
Philly didn’t have to show everything, but if there’s a single concern, it lies within the gap in competition from last week to this week. In fairness, to quote legendary emcee Roy Jones Jr., maybe the Eagles “just made the Giants look like nobody”. We don’t have to draw those connections for the 49ers though—they’ve already toppled teams from the top.
While they didn’t dominate, San Francisco did cover in a dogfight victory against a very talented Cowboys team. In fact, the 13-4 Niners — who went through THREE quarterbacks this year — faced a fairly challenging schedule of opposing quarterbacks: Fields, Geno, Wilson, Stafford, Mayfield, Mariota, Mahomes, Stafford, Herbert, McCoy, Dalton, Tua, Brady, Geno, Heinicke, Stidham, Blough, Geno again and Dak Prescott.
Meanwhile, the Eagles are 15-1 with Jalen Hurts as a starter, but their opposing QB draw looked a little different: Goff, Cousins, Wentz, Lawrence, Kyler, Rush, Pickett, Mills, Heinicke, Ryan, Rodgers, Tannehill, Jones, Fields, Dak, Dalton, Davis Webb and Danny Dimes again. Philly recorded an insane 70 sacks this season. But against this group of QBs, it’s not hard to understand why.
While neither of these teams classifies as a paper champion, it’s clear one of these teams skated through 2022 facing less than stellar competition. The 49ers went 5-1 against playoff teams, with wins over the Bucs, Dolphins, Seahawks and Chargers; Philly sports the same record against the elite, with wins against the Giants, Cowboys (Cooper Rush started), the Jags and Vikings.
San Francisco may be vulnerable to Eagles’ offensive attack (a mobile QB and a strong vertical passing game), but the Niners are more battle-tested have more overall experience (three NFC Title Games in four years) and they’re the healthiest they’ve been in years…except at the quarterback position. However, “Mr. Irrelevant” has been stellar. It’s fair to wonder how Brock Purdy will react in this setting, but it could just be that Kyle Shannan is the ultimate quarterback whisperer. And while some have knocked Purdy for benefiting from a perfect situation, you can’t call out Purdy for being a product of elite coaching AND argue that aforementioned system quarterback Patrick Mahomes is the greatest thing since sliced bread. Mahomes IS great, but having offensive Belichick game-planning for you helps. A lot.
We’ll take the 49ers to pull the upset and return to the Super Bowl again.
It’s the Bengals and 49ers for all the marbles—somewhere Joe Montana and John Taylor are smiling.