Nobody’s perfect, but we’re damn close in the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs. After a stellar 3-1 week outright and a sublime 4-0 against the spread, it’s time to determine which two teams will meet in Super Bowl…*checks notes*…is it 59? Really? Like, LIX?? Wow.
HHSR currently sits at 6-4 overall and 7-3 against the spread, with our outright record at picking Divisional Round games continues to do the heavy lifting. But we’ve got work to do if we’re going to get our AFC/NFC Title Game record above .500.
- 37-25 (.597) on Wildcard Weekend
- 38-14 (.730) on Divisional Round Weekend
- 12-12 (.500) in Conference Championships
- 7-5 (.583) in Super Bowls
- 94-56 (.627) All-Time
#6 Washington Commanders at #2 Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5)
People from Detroit like claim it’s “Detroit Vs. Everybody”. Well, last week “Everybody” came through and kicked the shit out of Detroit. Jayden Daniels didn’t even check in, but he and his Commanders still managed to upend the Lions in the playoff’s biggest upset thus far.
Daniels is doing the DMV proud, and may need to borrow a nickname from one of the region’s favorite sons. Since the late 90’s, Allen Iverson has donned one of the coolest monikers in America; let this be the first official proclamation that Daniels becomes football’s version of “The Answer”. When you watch the presumptive Offensive Rookie of the Year play, he seems to have every answer to the test in front of him. To this point, he’s never sped up, never out of sorts, never appears lost and always seems to have the elixir to cure whatever is attempting to plague the Commanders’ offense. Daniels has yet to commit a turnover through two road playoff games—offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury should receive a sizable amount of credit for this. But do we really expect Washington to now walk into Philadelphia and come out NFC Champions?
The six-seeded Cinderellas are on quite a run. The Commanders are trying to defeat the NFC’s third seed, first seed and second seed, all on the road. But how do six-seeds fair in the “Final Four” going back 25 years?
- The 2021-22 49ers lost to the Rams in the NFCCG
- The 2019-20 Titans lost to the Chiefs in the AFCCG
- The 2010-11 Jets lost to the Steelers in the AFCCG
- The 2010-11 Packers beat the Steelers in the Super Bowl
- The 2008-09 Ravens lost to the Steelers in the AFCCG
- The 2008-09 Eagles lost to the Cardinals in the NFCCG
- The 2005-06 Steelers beat the Seahawks in the Super Bowl
While not unprecedented, sixth seeds typically run into trouble here. Winning a third consecutive road playoff game would be difficult for anyone, let alone a team going up against “better” regular season teams. And the only two sixth seeds to win a championship were the 2010-2011 Packers, who were fortunate enough to only have to overcome the Bears’ third-string quarterback Caleb Hanie in the Conference Championship Game, and the 2005-06 Steelers, who should be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law for the crimes committed against the Seahawks in the Super Bowl.
Suffice it to say Washington probably needs really good luck from this point out to win it all. Throw in that no rookie QB as ever played in a Super Bowl, and the Eagles are the logical side in this matchup. PS. Philly boasts the NFL’s best defense, put three TDs on the Commanders in the fourth quarter of their first matchup and were likely on their way to a blowout victory in Washington if not for Jalen Hurts’ concussion. Oh, and it turns out that Saquon Barkley guy is pretty good, too.
Washington’s magic carpet ride comes to an end as the Eagles cover and make their third Super Bowl in seven seasons.
#2 Buffalo Bills at #1 Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5)
Let’s get down to brass tacks: The Chiefs earned the benefit of the doubt long ago, to the extent that nobody should be picking against them in earnest. They’re at home, they know their opponent well, they’ve lost only once all season, they have the referees in the bag, they’re chasing history, they know how to win in this spot better than anyone and Josh Allen has never beaten the Chiefs in the postseason.
Sidebar: Wait, did we mention the referees? All kidding aside, the Chiefs/referee discourse has gotten out of hand, but two things can be true: the Chiefs make more necessary plays in the biggest moments than their opponents…AND it really seems like the vast majority of the important 50/50 calls go their way. What too few Chiefs fans consider here is the Chiefs/referee “conspiracy” goes far beyond judgement calls like DPI, holding, unnecessary roughness and roughing the passer. It’s the stuff that goes UNCALLED, too. The Chiefs offensive tackles seem to line up in the backfield every play, in a year where the league has cracked down on every other team for it. Jawaan Taylor gets away with false starting all the time (this dates back to last season…and continued this season!) It’s the multiple holds against Nick Bosa that were allowed in last year’s Super Bowl. Or how about the unflagged blocks in the back against the Bengals on a key punt return in the AFCCG? It’s all of it, going back several years. Add to it Mahomes flopping for flags, plus the Taylor Swift smoking gun, and it makes Kansas City easy to hate.
This feels like the Bills year. While Buffalo has lost more games this season, the Bills only had one true stinker in 2024, and it came against the team they vanquished last week. Allen has outplayed Mahomes this season and the Chiefs, despite their winning, has appeared extremely vulnerable this year. And just because they were extremely vulnerable in 2023 and happened to win it all (barely) doesn’t mean things will shake out that way again if the team isn’t up to a championship standard. At the same time, if Allen and the Bills can’t get by the Chiefs now, it’d be easy for them to feel like they never will.
Expect Buffalo to attempt to control clock and lean on James Cook early on to wear down Kansas City’s elite defense, thus allowing Allen to take over with his arm and legs late. The Chiefs’ best hope is to keep things close and a low-ish scoring affair, with Tight End God Travis Kelce ramping up for one more big game. But if Buffalo can successfully slow Kelce down, where will the Chiefs offense come from? Remember, in KC’s only true defeat, the Bills held Kelce to two catches for eight yards. And what happened? No other Chiefs skill player cracked 62 yards and the team only mustered 21 points.
But again…Kansas City has earned this. They’ve earned the right to be the pick until they lose, then you just have to accept being wrong. Like LeBron in the East in the 2010s, or the Patriots 20-year run with Tom Brady, you just pick them until they lose and you hold the L. It’s the highest complement a team can receive.
Buffalo is the better team and Allen might just be the better quarterback, but that never stopped the Chiefs from winning before. Our official pick is Kansas City to win and cover (by 2 or 3 points). If the Bills win, they’ll have to win going away, by more than a touchdown, just as they did in November. But if the Bills are celebrating on the 50-yard line of Arrowhead tomorrow night, we won’t be shocked.
