Four teams remain in the quest for a Super Bowl Championship. The Packers are usual suspects. The Chiefs were MIA for 50 years before popping back up last year. The Bills were once regulars, but could never cash in. And the Bucs hadn’t been heard from on this stage since the early 2000s, but are now all anybody can talk about. Kind of like Nelly thanks to the #BussItChallenge.
We went 4-0 outright and 3-1 against the spread last week, bringing our playoff totals to 8-2 overall and 7-2-1 ATS. For those keeping score at home (and we know you are), we’re now 65-33 all-time, including 25-13 on Wildcard Weekend and 27-9 in the Divisional Round. We’re a humbling 9-7 on Championship Weekend dating back to 2013, but we’re only two games above .500 to make YOU feel better.
You’re welcome.
#5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at #1 Green Bay Packers (-3)
“Super Bowl or bust” may be the credo, but despite what they say publicly, win or lose, this year has been wildly successful for Tom Brady and the Buccaneers. Coming in with a new (old) leader and no practice time, they were able to transform themselves from the most penalized and turnover-happy squad in the league to a final four team in one season.
The Packers campaign on the other hand can’t be considered a successful one just yet. They were in the final four just last year against the 49ers, and well…demolished is such a harsh word–let’s just say they were obliterated by the Niners.
We didn’t know exactly what to expect from Tampa (well, WE did…more on that later). But most expected Green Bay to be fighting for the NFC crown by midseason (full disclosure: we missed on them pretty badly in September). Aaron Rodgers has been lights out since the second COVID wave, but now the pressure is on him because he’s supposed to win this game.
It’s hard to imagine anybody not physically located in or near Boston, or at a major outlet has written or said more about Tom Brady than this website. We’ve even gone into great detail about his comparisons to Aaron Rodgers.
Sidebar: Shoutout to friend-of-podcast Vince Hicks for his breakdown of the Brady/Rodgers debate (55:30 mark). In fairness, frequent HHSR contributor Anthony Hueston believes Rodgers is the better QB.
Winning this game would be monumental for Rodgers. Getting to (and potentially winning) his second Super Bowl would do wonders for him historically, especially if he were to topple Tom and Pat Mahomes in the process. If Green Bay wins, you’ll also see talking heads resurfacing like earthworms after a thunderstorm to erroneously claim this season was somehow a failure for Brady.
Everybody seems to be in agreement that Green Bay is the “better” team, and therefore, they’re supposed to win this game. But defensive metrics would suggest otherwise.
Statistically, Tampa is better than Green Bay across the board defensively. Pass defense, run defense, total yards allowed, points allowed, turnovers forced, sacks–ALL of it favors the Bucs over the Pack. In fact, if you throw out last week’s Rams game (their defense just wasn’t the same with a compromised Aaron Donald), the Packers haven’t faced a defense nearly as potent as Tampa Bay’s since Thanksgiving, when they lost to the Colts. On the flip side, the Bucs offense hit its stride late in the season (finishing seventh in yards and third in points) and is coming off wins against the Saints and Football Team, who each have superior defenses to Green Bay’s. The Packers strength of schedule has also been called into question by some.
Although Antonio Brown will miss the contest, Vita Vea’s return should give an already stout Tampa D a significant boost, especially when trying to contain the electric Aaron Jones. Jones and Davante Adams as a duo have proven to be virtually impossible to stop, but the Bucs managed to do it in Week 5.
While Rodgers has come up small in the NFC Championship Game, and has lost as a favorite in Lambeau on more than one occasion, Brady is no stranger to winning as a road underdog in the playoffs:
- 2021 – Knocked off the three-point favorite Saints last week.
- 2019 – Defeated Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs as a three-point underdog in Kansas City in the AFC Title Game.
- 2007 – Won a 24-21 contest in San Diego against the #1 overall seeded Chargers, while being given five points.
- 2002 – Upset the St. Louis Rams as 14-point underdogs in Super Bowl XXXVI.
- 2002 – Beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh as 10-point dogs in the AFC Title Game.
Why are we to believe the Bucs can’t win this game? Are the Packers tested enough to win a game like this against that quarterback? Can they handle the pressure of being expected to win? Are we really saying the weather will prevent the Bucs from winning, when so many key players on Tampa have experience braving the cold (Brady, Gronk, Godwin, Vea, Suh etc.)? Do we really not think Brady couldn’t turn this trick again in front of a mere 6,500 cheese people?
The early season blowout loss will help motivate the Packers, as the final score was virtually meaningless. Every team has one game per season they can just throw in the trash. But the fact that Tampa successfully stifled the league’s best offense does have meaning.
The Bucs advance to become the first ever team to host a Super Bowl. Rodgers and Brady are both great–it’s written in stone. This game will be decided by which defense shows up.
#2 Buffalo Bills at #1 Kansas City Chiefs (-3)
It’s fun seeing the Buffalo Bills on the cusp of their fifth Super Bowl appearance. And just last year, Kansas City climbed the unclimbable mountain–we shouldn’t be tired of seeing them on this stage yet. But as we said about the Browns last week, what happens when Bills play a team that doesn’t beat themselves?
Sidebar: The holes in the feet of the Colts and Ravens still haven’t heeled.
The Chiefs major mistakes were limited to a Chad Henne pick, which probably doesn’t happen if Mahomes were healthy, and two misses in the kicking game. Meanwhile Buffalo attempted the magic trick of winning a playoff game after sawing their offense in half. Your leading rusher netting 25 yards is a recipe for disaster against a healthy Mahomes. Buffalo desperately needs more balance in their attack if they want to have a chance.
It bears repeating that we labeled Stefon Diggs one of the five best receivers in football on this site three years ago. But the Josh Allen/Diggs connection alone won’t win the game. The Bills looked like they were trying to force their way into becoming Chiefs EST, when their quarterback isn’t top two, they only have one elite weapon and their coach isn’t an offensive mastermind.
KC has won 24 of their last 25 games, but they could’ve easily lost 5-10 more; there’s something to be said about the fact that they haven’t. They’ll need to play better than they did against Cleveland to beat Buffalo, and pray to Jesus, Buddha and Allah that Mahomes is healthy for the full 60 minutes.
If he’s not, Josh Allen and the Bills will win. But if he resembles himself at all, KC will cover and will be defending their crown in two weeks. We expect that he will. Remember, these two teams also met in October–the Chiefs didn’t even play their style and still won by nine points, in Buffalo.
In case you’re wondering what our preseason picks were…
The Niners still could be in the mix had they not undergone more casualties than a Shakespearean tragedy. But see that note at the bottom there? TB…call it Tampa Bay or Tom Brady–we believed all season that the Bucs could end up hosting the Super Bowl (we told you not to bet against that guy Brady), and Kansas City is still the favorite to win the AFC.
We ain’t flinching now.