The AFC South is a division ripe for the taking. There has been a lot of changes over the summer and each team is laying down their game plan to have the best season possible. However, to quote the early 21st century philosopher, Mike Tyson “Everyone has a plan ’til they get punched in the mouth.” Welcome back NFL! Let’s take a look at this widely contested division and see where each teams focus should be for the season, summed up in one word.
Tennessee Titans- Growth
With his first full season under his belt, Marcus Mariota is looking to settle into his role as QB and team captain for this young and hungry organization. The offensive line did little to help the Titans in 2015 (hence their dismal 3-13 record). Mariota was sacked an average of 3.4 times per game last season (most in the NFL).
If he can remain upright, the Titans will have a fighting chance. The head scratching trade of 6’6” wideout Dorial Green-Beckham to the Philadelphia Eagles should help streamline the offense which will be centered around running backs Derrick Henry and DeMarco Murray. The additions of offensive linemen Dennis Kelly (via the Green-Beckham trade) and Jack Conklin (via the eighth overall pick in the draft) will help fortify the interior and hopefully give Mariota the time that he needs to grow and develop as a quarterback. Do not expect a lot of high flying air assaults out of the Titans this season, in spite of the fantasy buzz rookie flanker Tajae Sharpe is receiving. Coach Mike Mularkey will have Mariota focus on consistency and accuracy to compliment his physical gifts.
Defensively, the Tennessee Titans were porous last year. As they ranked 29th in the league in Opponent Average Team Passer Ratings per game (101.1). The addition of linebacker Kevin Dodd should help on the interior, while the return of Jason McCourty should lend a boost to the secondary.
Indianapolis Colts- Luck
No I don’t mean the quarterback…well, actually I do. For much of his career up to this point, Andrew Luck has skated by scrutiny because of his “upside” and “potential”. The Colts brought him in to be the heir apparent for future hall of famer Peyton Manning (in a David Robinson/Tim Duncan kind of way). After an amazing 2014 campaign that yielded 40 TD and 16 Int, he followed up with a lackluster 15 TD 12 Int season in 2015. After hitting the jackpot with an $140 million six-year deal, Luck will need to prove that he is worth every red cent as the face of this organization.
The Colts spent a first-rounder on center Ryan Kelly from Alabama. While this does help sure up an offensive line that played uninspired through much of last season, Luck still lacks the playmakers necessary to take this team to the next level. T.Y. Hilton is not your traditional No. 1 receiver. More of a slot receiver, expect head coach Chuck Pagano (the same Chuck Pagano that was inches away from being let go, only to receive a four year extension out of nowhere) to find creative ways to get him the ball. He is the biggest difference maker on this offense, although Donte Moncrief may be in line for a breakout season. On the ground, the veteran Frank Gore is going to be handling the ball extensively in 2016. At 33 and in his 12th season, we have to wonder if he is still up for the rigorous NFL schedule.
Last year, Indy gave up 379.1 yds per game, sixth worst in the league. With games against Denver, Kansas City, Green Bay and Pittsburgh on the docket, the Colts will need to stop the bleeding if they want to stand a fighting chance.
IF the running game holds up, IF Luck can get some productivity from his receivers, IF the defense can bring some intensity, this team could make a run at the crown in the AFC South. That is a lot of “IF’s”, but with hard work and a little bit of Luck, the Colts can be right back in contention.
Jacksonville Jaguars- Opportunity
No team in this division did more moving and shaking this off season than the Jacksonville Jaguars. Coming off a tepid 5-11 season, the facelift this franchise has endured makes them the most intriguing team in the AFC South. Truthfully, this team has be labored with injuries for so long that we have yet to see them at their full potential. After losing the third overall pick defensive end Dante Fowler for the year in minicamp in 2015, Jalen Ramsey, the Jag’s first round defensive back (No. 5 overall) suffered a knee injury this year (he’s back though, and he’s feelin’ himself to hilarious proportions). If that weren’t enough, the Jaguars’ second-round pick Myles Jack is also coming off of a massive knee injury.
Allen Robinson is probably the most underrated receiver in football.
But it’s not all about rehab in Jacksonville. There should be a lot of excitement this season on the offensive side of the ball as QB Blake Bortles looks for steady improvement in himself and in the skill position players that compliment him. The 1-2 punch of T.J. Yeldon and Chris Ivory (previously of the Jets) should make a lot of noise this season, and keep defenses honest. After averaging 1.7 touchdowns per game in 2014, JAX averaged 2.8 touchdowns per game last year (tied for eighth in the NFL). This was largely due to the success of the passing game and “the Allens”. Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns were as efficient of a tandem as you could ask for this past year. Robinson was tied as a league leader in TD receptions (14) and Allen Hurns complimented him with 10 TD’s of his own.
The Jags have been committed to elevating their secondary with the drafting of Ramsey along with the acquisitions of Davon House from Green Bay and Tashaun Gipson from Cleveland. The Jags are a dark horse that could upset the structure of things inside the AFC South this season.
Houston Texans- Gamble
Last season’s divisional champs have their work cut out for them if they hope to replicate that success in 2016. Houston succeeded despite having a small village of quarterbacks leading them into battle from game to game. That experiment is over now as Brock Osweiler, the heir apparent to Peyton Manning in Denver, ran off on the plug to the tune of $72 million! That’s quite a gamble for coach Bill O’ Brien to make on a player with minimal live (NFL) game experience. Now settling into his first season as the starting QB for the Texans, Osweiler will be slinging it to the lightning quick yet injury prone duo of Will Fuller (Notre Dame) and Braxton Miller (The Ohio State University).
Here’s a quick look a the top NFL teams in sacks per game last season:
1) Denver (3.3)
2) New England (3.1)
3) Pittsburgh (3.0)
4) Kansas City (2.9)
6) Carolina (2.75)
This should tell you everything that you need to know about the importance of applying pressure to the quarterback to the long-term success of a team in this era. Houston was fifth overall in sacker game last season with 2.8 per game. They will need to reach that next level of dominance if they are ready to challenge the NFL’s elite teams. Texans defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel has a talented roster to work with and will look at presenting different fronts this year to keep offenses guessing and the nightmares about J.J. Watt and Jedeveon Clowney vivid.
In addition to some tough divisional matchups, the Texans face the Patriots (minus Tom Brady), Broncos and Packers all on the road, in addition to the Bengals and Chiefs at home. The Texans got the better of their tailback “trade” with the Miami Dolphins. When Houston played Miami last October, Arian Foster was injured for the season, while Lamar Miller was…pretty good, in what basically ended up being an audition. This team will go as far as Brock Osweiler is able to take them this season, and how far he will be able to go is contingent on how quickly he can learn the system and how fast he can mesh with his new teammates, like speedy rookie Will Fuller and the incomparable Deandre Hopkins.
Kenny’s AFC South Champ: Houston Texans
Anthony’s AFC South Champ: Indianapolis Colts
Justin’s AFC South Champ: Houston Texans