By now, you know the drill. So go ahead and drop your Super Bowl predictions in the comment section unless you’re too scared to make picks. Otherwise, sit back and enjoy this great column!
Buffalo Bills- Neutral
As in “stuck in”. There’s an old sports cliché that says a team will assume the characteristics of its coach. The reason it’s an old cliché is because it’s often true, for better or worse.
Rex Ryan is a blowhard, has been for some time. He had real success with the Jets, but overstayed his welcome and eventually was shown the door. Now he’s entering year two in Buffalo, but his team could be in trouble. If it were up to him, the Bills would be the east coast Seahawks, but this division has been owned by the Patriots for so long, the Bills can’t win more than eight games without Belichick and Brady signing a permission slip. Leodis McKelvin, Percy Harvin (possibly for the best) and Mario Williams are all gone, but Buffalo general manager Doug Whaley’s draft created buzz for a franchise that for long has lacked any.
Clemson defensive end Shaq Lawson, Alabama linebacker Reggie Ragland and Ohio State defensive tackle Adolphus Washington were selected in succession in each of the first three rounds. That’s three impact players on the collegiate level coming from winning programs. And nobody won more as quickly as their fourth-round QB Cardale Jones from Cleveland, OH by way of Ohio State. It’s still Tyrod Taylor’s job though, and the Bills went all in on a defensive makeover (because how else are you gonna stop the Patriots?) Sadly, Lawson injured his shoulder and is currently on the Reserve/PUP list, Ragland tore his ACL a month ago and will miss the entire season and Washington was suspended just before the Fiesta Bowl, following in the footsteps of his future teammate and fellow lineman Marcell Dareus.
Sammy Watkins will likely be stellar, as he was in the second half of last season, but he and Shady McCoy won’t be able to get this team over the hump. Not enough additions were made, except for Rob Ryan, who won’t help this team make the playoffs. It just doesn’t feel like this team is ready to take advantage of the Patriots misfortune.
Miami Dolphins- Substance
Dolphins are obviously great swimmers, but it’s unknown how good they are at treading water…except for these Dolphins— they’re excellent at it. Miami has finished 6-10, 7-9 or 8-8 in each of the last seven years. New coach Adam Gase is looking to change that, although he’ll have to do it without the services of Peyton Manning who helped him land the offensive coordinator job in Chicago which led to this one. Gase’s top task is to figure out once and for all if Ryan Tannehill can take his game to the next level. Statistically, he’s been decent (if he were in Cleveland they’d build a statue of him), but it hasn’t translated into W’s.
This team has talent: Ndamukong Suh, Mario Williams, Reshad Jones, Branden Albert, Mike Pouncey, Jarvis Landry etc. But the Dolphins organization always seemed to lack focus. Granted, South Florida will forever be a desired destination, and therefore, it would be foolish for Miami not to take advantage of free agency. But this team tends to go overboard at times. Free agency seems to supersede sound drafting, which is never a recipe for success in the NFL. This offseason, Miami took their focus on flash to the draft this year as they nabbed controversial offensive lineman Laremy Tunsil in the first round. No one is condemning Tunsil here (far from it actually), but his character has been called into question, which is fair at this point.
The addition of Arian Foster will bring real maturity to the locker room. Physically, it’s unclear whether he can still produce at a high level. One way or another, this team and organization needs to be associated with substance, without the word “abuse” attached to it.
New York Jets- Opportunity
In case you missed it, I had high hopes for the Jets right around New Year’s Day. They then proceeded to make me look stupid and blow their shot at the playoffs in spectacular fashion in the fourth quarter of the last game of the season.
So what did our old friends W and J. Cole teach us?
Okay, that’s a bit extreme. There’s actually still a lot to like about this football team. The defense is of playoff caliber. Last season New York was fourth in the league in total defense and ninth in fewest points allowed. They were tied for 12th in sacks and ranked fifth in interceptions. The offense was surprisingly efficient, finishing 10th in yards and 11th in points. Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker each had great seasons, and the only key piece lost from the 2015 iteration of the Jets was running back Chris Ivory, whom NY upgraded into Matt Forte.
The handling of the Ryan Fitzpatrick contact situation was a little unnerving. While it’s understandable why Jets brass didn’t want to fork over the cash to a guy who did this, he was the best QB available as the team made no real effort to replace him other than drafting another rookie QB (Christian Hackenberg). They let it drag on for months before finally reaching an agreement in late July. What type of message does that send to the rest of your locker room? The Jets also drew a bad hand this year, as they’re facing one of the tougher schedules in football. To start, they’ll take on the Bengals, Bills, Chiefs, Seahawks, Steelers, Cardinals and Ravens in succession, and they’ll have to play the Patriots twice with Tom Brady. Still, NY must take advantage of Brady’s absence— they have more to gain from the Deflategate farce than any other team.
I guess I’m somewhat of a fool because I still believe in this squad, yet even for a team with playoff potential, that schedule is asking a lot of them. But they could’ve made the AFC title game last year and New York one of the few teams capable of beating the Patriots in the playoffs.
Bill Belichick was clearly thrilled with his Patriots AFC Championship Game appearance last year.
New England Patriots- Redemption
Which teams can beat the Patriots in the playoffs? We’ve written about this before. But after watching Buffalo peter out to an 8-8 season, the Dolphins doggie paddle through the division for years and the Chiefs fall flat versus the Pats in the divisional round last year, it’s safe to assume those teams couldn’t take down the Patriots if faced with the task in January.
Sidebar: We can add the Broncos and Jets to the list however based on the criteria laid out in the above link.
How did the Patriots not reach another Super Bowl last season? Everything was there for them, especially if they locked up the top seed in Week 16. But Belichick gave the Jets the ball to start OT at MetLife. New England lost. Then in an effort to keep the team healthy (we can only assume), Belichick barely let Brady throw the ball in the first half of the Week 17 game at Miami. New England lost again. If the Pats win either game, they lock down the top seed and nobody beats them in the AFC playoffs, including the Broncos. And even in Denver, the toughest place for Tom Brady to win, and after getting annihilated all game, Brady pulled off one of the best throws of his career, followed by one of the most clutch TDs of his career to nearly force OT.
Sidebar: How he missed Gronk on the two-point conversion I’ll never know. Bad read, Tom.
The string of bitter defeats continued (save for the Kansas City game) this summer when Roger Goodell and the other 31 owners finally got their way and successfully banished Brady for a quarter of the season for nothing. But embracing the suspension may have been the best thing for them. Now Janeane Garofalo Jimmy Garoppolo must guide the Patriots through the first four games.
Isn’t it amazing how much the other AFC East teams invest in defense to try to stop the Patriots? The Jets devote a first round pick to defense every year. The Bills spent a third overall pick in 2011 and each of their first three picks this year on D. The Phins break the bank to bring in Suh, all to stop the Patriots…and they still can’t do it. New England’s reign will end at some point, but until further notice, they deserve to be the pick based on historical data alone (I call this The Floyd Mayweather Rule).
New England’s defense has the potential to be great, but they must shake the trend of being great only at home, and just being passable on the road. Belichick has been patiently collecting castoffs with first-round pedigrees to stack his defense (Chris Long, Shea McClellin, Barkevious Mingo). The Pats also need to answer some serious o-line questions, however the additions of Chris Hogan and Martellus Bennett should keep the passing game humming along once Brady returns to seek and destroy everything in his path.
Justin’s AFC East Champs: New England Patriots
Kenneth’s AFC East Champs: New England Patriots
Anthony’s AFC East Champs: New England Patriots
Here’s a recap of all of our playoff picks in no particular order, including the low key difficult Wildcard picks:
Justin’s Playoff Teams: AFC- Patriots, Ravens, Broncos, Texans, Bengals (WC), Chiefs (WC) NFC– Seahawks, Packers, Cowboys, Panthers, Cardinals (WC), Giants (WC)
Kenneth’s Playoff Teams: AFC- Patriots, Bengals, Texans, Broncos, Chiefs (WC), Steelers (WC) NFC– Cardinals, Packers, Giants, Panthers, Seahawks (WC), Eagles (WC)
Anthony’s Playoff Teams: AFC- Patriots, Bengals, Colts, Chiefs, Broncos (WC), Steelers (WC) NFC– Cardinals, Packers, Panthers, Redskins, Seahawks (WC), Giants (WC)
The top of the NFC should once again be a dogfight. We’ve seen Carolina, Green Bay, New York and Seattle all reach the big game in recent years. We’ve seen the Cardinals get close on a couple of occasions. Any of those teams could make the Super Bowl, but we each went with the Packers last season as the belief was Aaron Rodgers is too good to only make one Super Bowl in his prime.
That hasn’t changed.
In what essentially a disastrous 2015, Rodgers & Co. still made the playoffs, won a road game in the Wild Card round and nearly made the NFC Championship Game, with Jordy Nelson sidelined, Randall Cobb failing to live up to expectations, Eddie Lacy looking 400 lbs and Mike McCarthy not calling the plays for much of the season. That all should be rectified this year. You certaintly expected Anthony Hueston to have the Pack back in the Super Bowl, but I’m rolling with them once more to reach the big game. We know what history says about the Panthers, it’s still hard to put total faith in Carson Palmer and Seattle isn’t nearly as invincible at home as they once were.
The AFC is similar to the NBA’s Eastern Conference. Sure, there are some decent teams. Realistically, there’s only one team that can be picked with the utmost confidence. And that team only has to beat one team from the other conference.
Believe me, I get just as tired picking the Patriots as you do reading me pick the Patriots. But a rested an extra motivated Tom Brady is bad news for the rest of the league. He’s motivated to get his fifth ring. He’s motivated to prove the naysayers wrong. But most importantly (to him), he wants to continue to prove that he — not Jimmy G — is still the best quarterback for the New England Patriots now, and going into the future.
This is Brady’s greatest motivation— the fifth ring makes for a great adornment though.
Justin’s Super Bowl Pick: New England Patriots defeat Green Bay Packers
Anthony’s Super Bowl Pick: Green Bay Packers defeat Denver Broncos
Kenneth’s Super Bowl Pick: New England Patriots defeat Arizona Cardinals