Quarterback play takes center stage in the NFC South, unmistakably the worst division of 2014. Winston, Ryan, Brees & Newton— whose team has the edge?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Three of the four starting QBs in this division were drafted in the top three overall picks. Three of the four starting QBs in this division were picked first (well, Brees was picked first in the second round, so not exactly). Two of the four starting quarterbacks in this division were selected number one overall. Jameis Winston has the pedigree, but also has some stiff competition if he wants to make an imprint on the NFC South.
Winston was hit and miss in the preseason. To his credit though, he’s managed to stay out of trouble and won the starting job in Tampa (take that, Mike Glennon!) The pressure will be on early, especially since the Florida State product is playing in his own backyard.
Famous Jameis will have the luxury of playing pitch and catch with Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson, two extremely large and talented targets. It’s reasonable to think Winston will be fairly decent just because his receivers are Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson. Although Josh McCown, Tampa’s QB last year, had the same success chucking it up to similarly large targets in Chicago two years ago, but crashed and burned for the Bucs in 2014. So it’ll take more than shutting his eyes and throwing up a couple of “Eli Mannings” in order to right this pirate ship.
Coach Lovie Smith is in his second year in Tampa Bay, yet the perception exists that after posting a 2-14 mark a year ago, he’s already on the hot seat. This thought has since been refuted by upper management, but the fact that it’s even being floated out there cannot be good for his sleep regimen (whatever small one NFL coaches have anyway).
Bottom line: The addition of a theoretical franchise quarterback is great, but unless they can keep him upright in the pocket, this team will continue to struggle mightily.
The former Heisman Trophy winner was sacked seven times in three preseason appearances, and of course, didn’t play more than three quarters in any of those games. Last year, the Buccaneers allowed the third-most sacks in the NFL and the analytics suggest they were the worst run blocking team in the league, even with the addition of former Patriots cast off Logan Mankins. They drafted left tackle Donovan Smith early in the second round to protect their prized investment’s blind side. Aside from that, no major moves were done to enhance an offensive line that could easily be dominated by a blocking sled.
With Gerald McCoy, a newly resigned Lavonte David, Alterraun Verner and now Tim Jennings in the mix, this defense has talent. Unfortunately, it’s short on depth. The Bucs will definitely improve from last season, but the Jameis era will have to age a year or two before this becomes a playoff team.
New Orleans Saints
These days, quarterbacks are playing at a higher level for longer than ever before. But lost in the recent epic exploits of 39-year-old Peyton Manning and 38-year-old Tom Brady is Drew Brees (36), perhaps the most overlooked legendary player in NFL history.
Brees’ one Super Bowl victory was enough to move him into slam dunk Hall of Fame territory, but #9’s credentials go much deeper. You may not think of him in the same realm as Peyton, Brett Favre or Dan Marino, but he’s currently fourth all-time in passing yards and touchdowns. Seriously! Brees threw for just a shade under 5,000 yards in 2014, but he’s actually managed to reach that threshold four times in his career. However his 33 TD tosses was tied for his third-lowest total in his last seven seasons, and now he’ll have to generate points without the services of Jimmy Graham (traded to Seattle).
Brees will need to rebound in a big way in 2015 if the Saints are to return to the top of this division— because the defense damn sure won’t lead them there. The sole caveat to the Saints coming out of the NFC prediction I made last season was Rob Ryan not going “Rob Ryan”, which is exactly what he did. New Orleans was 28th in points allowed and takeaways last year— thus, they revamped the defense thought the draft this year and siphoned off Brandon Browner from the champion Patriots.
Sidebar: In other words, this sub-par defensive coordinator who’s made a career off of his last name would have one decent season before crashing and burning as expectations rose. The Saint’s weren’t the first team Rob Ryan “Rob Ryan-ed”.
Sean Payton appears to be at a crossroads. Running backs Mark Ingram and C.J. Spiller, and shifty receiver Brandin Cooks are expected to have larger roles in the offense, while 6’6″ rookie receiver Brandon Coleman may assume some of the red zone responsibilities vacated by Graham. With Brees’ clock ticking, and the Saints now being a cool six years removed from their Super Bowl season, how much more time before Payton reaches Tom Coughlin territory (recognized as a great coach but living solely off of the accomplishments of yesteryear)?
Luckily for him, this is a winnable division.
Carolina Panthers
It was Carolina that won this division for the second straight year in 2014, but they did so in about the most unimpressive way possible. The Panthers backed into the playoffs on the strength of a tie, and their 7-8-1 record was just barely good enough. The Panthers making the postseason in this fashion was a difficult enough to accept as is, but Cam Newton’s crew actually got to host a playoff game on top of it. And they won it!
The Panthers went on to put up a decent fight before succumbing to the Seahawks in Seattle. Still, it’s difficult to envision how this team, now without Kelvin Benjamin (torn ACL), will manage to generate enough offense to be competitive. Carolina’s pass catcher’s were already suspect with the dynamic Benjamin— now this group is a wasteland (aside from tight end Greg Olsen). Newton will have to be better than ever, and will likely have to shoulder more of the burden of the team’s ground game, in order to score points.
Sidebar: At least the Panthers finally…FINALLY…broke up the running back tandem of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. Seems like the last time both members of this duo was productive, the McCain/Palin ticket was an actual thing.
Fortunately, Ron Rivera’s team has a solid young defense, led by All-Everything linebacker Luke Kuechly. The 2014 Panthers were tied for the second most forced fumbles in the NFL (they like ties in Charlotte) and was 10th in total defense. Charles “Peanut” Tillman — a DB who forces as many fumbles as I’ve ever seen — was signed as a free agent, while athletic rookie Shaq Thompson will look to serve as a serviceable sidekick for Kuechly.
Carolina was 1-4-1 against playoff teams a year ago— was this really the best the NFC South had to offer??
Atlanta Falcons
Matt Ryan is in an interesting spot. Once one of the brightest young signal-callers the game had to offer, Ryan is one more disappointing season away from being “just another guy”. A solid, middle-of-the-road quarterback who is competent, can put up numbers and win you some regular season games, but not much more (see: Matthew Stafford).
Sidebar: Actually, Ryan may already be there; he is in your fantasy draft.
ATL better pray for a full 16-game season from Julio Jones, or else 2015 could get ugly real quick.
How much of this lack of big game success is Ryan’s fault though? Mike Smith wasn’t exactly Bear Bryant during his stint with Atlanta, and year after year, the Falcons seem to trot out a flashy team with little substance. Sure, Julio Jones is amazing. Roddy White has been rock solid for the better part of a decade. Devin Hester is the GOAT kick returner, and ATL has added some intriguing young running backs. But what about in the trenches where so many games are won and lost? Believe it or not, the Falcons much-maligned offensive line was in the middle of the pack statistically (thank you again, Football Outsiders) in 2014, but the D-line left something to be desired. The acquisition of Vic Beasley via the eighth overall pick of the draft should help that cause.
If Cleveland Browns coach Mike Pettine is “Stone Cold”, new Falcons head man Dan Quinn is undoubtedly “Goldberg”. Professional wrestling doppelgangers notwithstanding, Goldberg was formerly the Seahawks defensive coordinator, so it appears Atlanta is headed in the right direction. But he has zero head coaching experience and was only in Seattle for two seasons. Worse yet, the Dirty Birds hired Kyle Shanahan to be their new offensive coordinator, a guy who snitched on management in Cleveland and snuck out the back door. The last two places Kyle Shanahan landed (Washington and Cleveland) seemed to end up worse off of because of it.
We all seem to be worse off for having a team from this division make the playoffs. Each team finished sub .500 last year, and frankly, there’s a better chance of 50 Tyson dropping a classic album than any of these teams making a Super Bowl run in 2015. Having said that, the Saints is the reluctant pick to win the NFC South— a slightly easier schedule than Carolina being the difference. Although neither the Panthers or Falcons would be a shock to win. And maybe the 10 year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina gets The Big Easy charged up again.
Sidebar: Rob Ryan is still in New Orleans though. So…yeah.
Now if you’ll excuse me, I need to take a shower.
Anthony’s NFC South Champion: New Orleans Saints
Kenneth’s NFC South Champion: Carolina Panthers