Three former All-Pro talents left the NFC for the AFC East…and then there’s the world champs. Let’s talk AFC East, playoff teams, conference winners and Super Bowl champions for the 2015-16 NFL season!
New York Jets
Long considered the junior varsity New York football team, the Jets ushered in a new era when longtime coach Rex Ryan was ousted and owner Woody Johnson gave former Arizona Cardinals defensive coordinator Todd Bowles the keys to franchise. Although Woody wasn’t only in the market for a new coach this spring.
Already a decent team against the pass statistically, the Jets were determined to f*** up some commas when it came to their pass defense. New York coughed up over $170 million (of course, not all of this being guaranteed money) on a brand new secondary, highlighted by the return of Darrelle Revis. Revis got paid in Tampa, got a ring in Foxborough and is now headed back home for, well…probably another check above anything else. But can you blame the man who is the best at his position for wanting to be paid like it? The former Defensive Player of the Year joins safety Marcus Gilchrist, and corners Buster Skrine and Antonio Cromartie (also returning to the Jets) on what appears to be a stout defensive unit.
For what seems like the 90th straight season, New York also added a defensive player in the first round of the draft. Although this time, the Jets may have lucked into the steal of the draft as USC defensive tackle Leonard Williams slipped to them at sixth overall. All of these moves should transform what was a good defense into a stellar one, but it doesn’t explain how this team will manufacture points.
Enter Ryan Fitzpatrick, the quintessential quarterback understudy that has been thrust into the starting role thanks to an IK Enemkpali left hook. With Geno Smith’s jaw displaced, Fitzpatrick once again became an NFL starting QB. By reuniting with his former Buffalo head coach Chan Gailey (now the Jets offensive coordinator), Fitzy may be a slightly better option than most would think. In fact, his numbers over the last five years are pretty much identical to those of Carson Palmer, Jay Cutler and Andy Dalton, three men who have quarterbacked their fair share of playoff teams (and earned a lot more money). The J.E.T.S. also added Brandon Marshall (Will Inside the NFL be a distraction? Some Bears teammates thought it was last year) and Devin Smith (R), while jettisoning Percy Harvin. Still, there doesn’t appear to be enough firepower, or speed frankly, on this offense.
The Jets will be improved, but unless they become the league’s best defense, a .500 or so season appears to be on the horizon.
Miami Dolphins
Athletes have been taking their talents to South Beach for some time. The sun, the beach, the women, the nightlife— there’s a lot to like. So it should come as no surprise when the Dolphins (or Heat, or Marlins, or The U) use this to their advantage when recruiting talent to Dade Wade County. The Phins signed Ndamukong Suh to a six-year, $114M deal with $60M guaranteed this offseason to enhance a front four that already possessed sack-master Cameron Wake.
Sidebar: Amazing, isn’t it? The guaranteed dough is pretty much all that matters in these deals, and arguably one of the 10 best players in a league of 1,700 guys is basically getting DeMarre Carroll money.
Suh will help slow down any team looking to run on them, but more importantly, he brings a certain nasty to this team that is much needed. But it wasn’t just the defense that received a new look; the Miami skill players were completely overhauled.
Running back Lamar Miller and receiver Jarvis Landry are now joined by wideouts Greg Jennings, Kenny Stills, Devante Parker, Rishard Matthews and tight end Jordan Cameron on an offense that should not fail, especially considering quarterback Ryan Tannehill’s steady improvement. If it does fail however, it will be at Tannehill’s feet; he’ll be out of excuses. Period.
Interestingly, Miami’s schedule is structured in such a away that it doesn’t provide them the built in advantage of playing at home in September. The Phins play only one home game before October 25th (in part due to a trip to London, followed by a bye). But in the end, the schedule-makers gave Joe Philbin’s crew a break. The Dolphins won’t even play a proven quarterback until Week 8, and five of their last seven games (including tough ones like Dallas, Baltimore and Indianapolis) are at home.
It’s make or break time for Philbin. If they put it all together, Miami could be a playoff team.
Buffalo Bills
Tyrod Taylor has not started a football game since the 2011 Orange Bowl when his Virginia Tech Hokies were demolished by Stanford 40-12.
Sidebar: Did somebody say the “Virgina Tech Hokies were demolished”?? SPIN MOVE!!!!!!
Sorry about that……….sike! No I’m not.
Taylor is now the calling the shots in the Bills huddle. Is he up to the task? How short will his leash be? Will he hand off to LeSean McCoy 35 times a game? It’s up to the Bills new coach to figure all that out, as well as how to integrate the mercurial Percy Harvin into this locker room.
Who is the Bills new coach anyway? Why it’s our old friend Rex Ryan! He clearly didn’t move all that far away from his other NY job. Real talk, this job is better because he’s moving into a better defense. Buffalo led the NFL in sacks and was sixth in interceptions before Rexy ever got there. They don’t get any better than Mario Williams, Marcell Dareus, Jerry Hughes and Kyle Williams as a front four— the Bills will be dominant in the trenches on the defensive side of the ball.
We know Rex likes to run the ball, and we also know Buffalo dumped both C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson in favor of McCoy (they don’t call him “Shady” for nothin’), who is capable of carrying the rock 25 times a game. But it’s fair to wonder if can he maintain this type of workload. McCoy is no spring chicken, and is entering the season banged up. But they’ll also need to use him in order to protect Tyrod Taylor, and possibly E.J. Manuel and or Matt Cassel from themselves. You’d think the Bills addition of Harvin to play opposite the dynamic Sammy Watkins would give their aerial attack a much needed boost, except Percy Harvin appears to be the most overrated player in the NFL. He’s basically had a significant impact in only one game that mattered over the last three years— Super Bowl XLVIII, which was a year and a half years ago.
The Bills have a championship caliber defense and appear to have put the Toronto rumors to bed, finally. But are they a complete enough team? It’ll be difficult for them, Miami and to a lesser extent the Jets to rise up because they’re all improved, but more importantly, the AFC East emperors aren’t going anywhere just yet.
New England Patriots
Most believed Tom Brady’s desire to get out from under his preposterous Deflate Gate punishment was merely a function of preservation. True, his legacy was a big part of it, but few referenced the obvious point that Brady would’ve missed a quarter of the season had his suspension stuck, which matters in a much improved division from top to bottom (that, and Brady never, ever, EVER wants to give another QB the chance to take his snaps).
No team is better equipped to deal with the distraction from the Brady trail than the Patriots, who while dealing with the same distraction seven months ago, defeated the defending champions on the world’s stage. But from a pure football standpoint, the Patriots made several questionable moves this offseason.
Bill Belichick let Darrelle Revis walk. He let Shane Vereen walk. He let Brandon Browner walk. He let Akeem Ayers walk. And perhaps most importantly, he let defensive captain Vince Wilfork walk in a classic Belichick “drop him one year too early rather than hang onto him one year too late” move. Despite all those departures, an underrated positive that came from the Patriots is they basically kept their entire coaching staff intact, which is unusual for a Super Bowl winning team. Teams that win it all typically have their coaching staff picked clean by all the other teams looking to imitate their success; the Pats managed to avoid having their coaching staff harvested.
Replacing a leader like Wilfork won’t be easy (getting Jerod Mayo back helps…a lot), but having University of Texas defensive tackle Malcolm Brown fall to them at the bottom of round one in the draft definitely helps. Unfortunately, the Patriots may be vulnerable on defense, and potentially on offense at the start of the season. Super Bowl hero Malcolm Butler will now slide into a starting cornerback role. This kid is up to the task and will be a solid starter in this league, if not better. But the receivers he’s been covering in practice have all been in ace bandages this preseason. Brandon LaFell is on the PUP list, Julian Edelman has been banged up and Danny Amendola is always an aggressive sneeze away from a broken hip. Still, all is not lost.
The best thing about this roster heading into this season is that Rob Gronkowski is healthy. When Gronk is healthy, the Patriots win, flat out. The last two seasons Gronk ended the season healthy, or at least remotely healthy, New England was in the Super Bowl, and the frat boy tight end is coming off the second-best campaign of his career. In short, Rob Gronkowski might be the most valuable non-quarterback in the NFL.
Many of my predictions in the past have been predicated on teams playing with inspiration. No team will be more inspired in 2015 than New England, and the last time we saw them highly motivated, they went undefeated. That ain’t happening this year, but the fire that was stoked after seven straight months having their work ethic, dedication, integrity and talent called into question should carry Tom Brady’s boys for quite awhile.
Speaking of Brady, he’s moved out of the Peyton Manning “best of his generation” discussion and completely into the Joe Montana “best of all-time” discussion after winning his fourth championship. But for all those who still throw shade at his accomplishments, particularly the fact that he’s lost two Super Bowls, consider this: Rather than looking at him as a four-time Super Bowl champion and two-time loser, look at him as a four-time Super Bowl champion and a six-time AFC champion. That flips the narrative and highlights the fact that Brady’s Super Bowl AND Conference Championship game success is unparalleled in NFL history. You don’t think AFC Championship Games matter? Tell that to the Cleveland Browns, who haven’t seen that game in 25 years. Brady meanwhile has played in the game nine times in his career, and New England has made the AFC Title Game four consecutive years. Is there any reason to think they won’t have a shot at five straight?
Center Bryan Stork going on the short-term injured reserve list is actually a big deal, particularly for a team in the same division as Darius, Suh, Williams and Muhammad Wilkerson. Although Brady moved around in the pocket extremely well last year, expect teams to pressure him right up the middle. Keep in mind the Pats didn’t begin their winning ways in ’14 until the sorted out their O-line issues.
The Patriots may be in for their toughest divisional crown fight in recent years, but I won’t be the one to predict their downfall— HHSR made a lot of national media members look stupid when they pulled that stunt last year. You don’t throw dirt on Tom Brady; the Patriots will win the AFC East.
But how much further can they go?
Anthony’s AFC East Champion: New England Patriots
Kenneth’s AFC East Champion: New England Patriots
Let’s go ahead and recap the HHSR’s definitive 2015 preseason NFL playoff picks!
Justin’s Playoff Teams: AFC- Patriots, Ravens, Colts, Chiefs, Broncos (WC), Dolphins (WC) NFC– Seahawks, Packers, Eagles, Saints, Cardinals (WC), Vikings (WC)
Kenneth’s Playoff Teams: Patriots, Ravens, Colts, Chargers, Broncos (WC), Steelers (WC) NFC– Seahawks, Packers, Giants, Panthers, Saints (WC), Cowboys (WC)
Anthony’s Playoff Teams: AFC- Patriots, Ravens, Colts, Broncos, Bengals (WC), Chiefs (WC) NFC– Seahawks, Packers, Cowboys, Saints, Cardinals (WC), Vikings (WC)
If there’s one thing wrong with these predictions, it’s that there aren’t many stunners in this group. There’s always that one team that comes from nowhere to swipe a playoff spot. Conversely, there’s always that one team that’s supposed to be in the mix, but collapses unceremoniously. Super Bowl contenders don’t vacillate nearly as much. The same cast of characters are vying for the Lombardi Trophy almost every year. But there’s a few things each season that prevents teams from taking the next step. Injuries and luck are a big part of it, but so too is having a fatally flawed unit or factor that impedes victory.
For example, the Eagles can’t get there because Sam Bradford will inevitably get hurt. The Steelers may have all the offense they could ever want, but when have we ever known Pittsburgh to outscore their opponent on their way to a Super Bowl? Their defense will suck, which will hold them back. The Colts won’t win it (especially if they have to go through New England) because they’re too worried about plotting their next sting operation. The Seahawks won’t win because teams don’t go to three straight Super Bowls anymore, and they’re too consumed with money. They won’t be as hungry this year.
Part of the reason New England were my pick last season was there wasn’t anyone else I trusted enough to come out of the AFC. It takes a certain type of team to beat the Patriots; those primary characteristics tend to carry over from season to season. But in a vacuum, without knowing the seedings or circumstances, the Patriots are still the most trustworthy team in the AFC. Far from unbeatable, the Pats narrowly escaped defeat against Baltimore and Seattle last winter. But two years ago they went all the way to the AFC Title Game and were competitive despite heading into Denver with essentially Brady, Belichick and the practice squad. The 2015 team is somewhere in the middle, but the fuel from the alleged cheating will springboard this group into Super Sunday.
Although they didn’t make it to Glendale, one could argue the Green Bay Packers were the best team in the league in 2014. Only a 2008 economy sized-collapse prevented an epic Aaron Rodgers/Tom Brady Super Bowl matchup— we’ll get to see it in Super Bowl 50.
Two Northern California natives who grew up rooting for the San Francisco 49ers meeting in the 49ers’ stadium with the 50th Super Bowl on the line? It’s not a sexy preseason pick, but it gets no better than this. You know it.
Just give him the belt now.
Green Bay is without Jordy Nelson, which is a major loss. However elite receivers aren’t what leads teams to Super Bowls. Aside from Jerry Rice and Michael Irvin (both of whom had several elite teammates), how many superstar wideouts have hoisted the trophy? Marvin Harrison? The 1999 Rams guys? The point is you can lose a great receiver, or be thin at the position altogether (like the Seahawks) and still win a Super Bowl. So while Jordy’s loss may cripple your fantasy team, it won’t have the same impact on the Pack because Aaron Rodgers is gifted enough to make the next man up look like Jordy Nelson.
For that, the fact that they won’t lose at home more than once this year, their balance on both sides of the ball, that they force turnovers without giving the ball back, and the added motivation of having thrown away their opportunity last year, the Green Bay Packers will win Super Bowl 50.
Fitting that the winners of Super Bowl I and Super Bowl 50 would be the same franchise, but that is the pick, and I’m not alone on this.
Anthony’s Super Bowl Pick: Green Bay Packers defeat Denver Broncos
Kenneth’s Super Bowl Pick: Green Bay Packers defeat New England Patriots