The Western Conference has been the dominant conference in basketball for what seems like a billion years. The East has champions, but the West has depth…and champions. The last two NBA champs make our list of West contenders, but who is the best out West? And who wins the NBA Championship?
Sidebar: Each NBA preview column will feature contributions from myself, and fellow HHSR contributors Kenneth Hicks and Anthony Hueston.
San Antonio Spurs
Last Season: The San Antonio Spurs have been on their “last legs” for at least five years and counting. They entered the 2014 season as the champions and the team that ended the LeBron James Heat era of dominance. This well-oiled Spurs machine did what they do, ranking fifth in assists and seventh in points per game, while ranking third in opponents ppg allowed. The Spurs were 55-27, 3rd in the West. That should sound familiar because with the exception of 1998 (lockout shortened season where they won the title) and 1996 (David Robinson was injured, allowing San Antonio to bottom out and select Tim Duncan), the Spurs have won at least 50 games every year since 1993, which is simply amazing.
The Spurs Hall of Fame three (Duncan, Ginobili, Parker) all had their minutes monitored as usual, all played less than 30mpg. The Spurs leading scorer was Kawhi Leonard (17 ppg), 24 years old, champion, Finals MVP and eventual winner of the season’s Defensive Player of the Year award established himself as the team’s best player.
The Spurs headed into the playoffs scorching hot as they only lost nine games after February. But after blowing the number two seed by losing to New Orleans on the last night of the season, they faced the L.A. Clippers in a seven game series where Chris Paul gave the performance of his life on one good leg including a buzzer-beater to end the third quarter in final game, and what proved to be the series-winner on a runner over Danny Green and Tim Duncan.
Offseason: The Spurs drafted two players (Cady Lalanne and Nikola Mulutinov) who are both unknown to mainstream bball, and are assuredly going to be first ballot Hall of Famers because #Spurs.
San Antonio also brought in David West for dirt cheap, resigned Ginobili to a one-year deal with a player option and Tim Duncan to a two-year $10 million dollar contract which allowed general manager RC Buford to act in a very non-Spursian manner.
The Spurs agreed to terms with free agent PF/C LaMarcus Aldridge from Portland for four years and $84 million dollars. The 30-year-old was courted by many teams but couldn’t pass up the chance to get paid and play for one of the leagues best run organizations. For the Spurs to open the checkbook was a bit of a shocker, but allows them to formalize the transfer from the Duncan-Ginobili-Parker era to the Leonard-Aldridge-Green Era.
#Trending: Up. They’re the Spurs; they only trend one way until further notice. We can fully expect another playoff appearance, 50+ wins and some elite level basketball night in and night out. Tony Parker’s decline could be a problem over the course of the season, but knowing the Spurs they’ll turn Ray McCallum from third stringer to ice-cold killer come playoff time.
— AH
Los Angeles Clippers
Last Season: Just when you thought they couldn’t top their 2014 finish; just when you thought a team couldn’t be more snake bitten; just when you thought the Clippers couldn’t be more “Clippers”, the Clippers carefully crafted one of the great collapses in NBA playoff history.
Up 3-1, the Clips casually gave little effort in Game 5 of a second round series against the Houston Rockets, knowing they had two more cracks at winning one game, with the next chance at home in Los Angeles. Up 19 in the third quarter and with James Harden on the bench for the duration of the game, the Clippers somehow…SOMEHOW…allowed the Rockets to not only creep back in the game, but dominate! Houston won the game – breaking their spirit in the process – then won Game 7 handily in Houston to complete the basketball emasculation.
Other than that, 2014-15 was great for the Los Angeles Clippers!
Chris Paul was great, Blake Griffin was great, DeAndre Jordan (in a contract year – wait) was great, and every time he stepped to the free throw line in the second half of a big game, it was riveting. The Clippers set a franchise record for wins, the new owner was doing this thing…
And the team had the most efficient offense in the league, even better than the eventual champion Golden State Warriors.
Offseason: So about DeAndre Jordan. This guy has an uncanny ability to make the most simple and mundane parts of basketball (like free throw shooting, or in this case, signing a contract extension) wildly entertaining. The saga of Deandre’s “will he/won’t he” tug-of-war between the Clips and Dallas Mavericks over his services was the most compelling offseason decision since LeBron’s last two free agent foray. Still, it was pretty annoying at the same time. Jordan had to know all along the Clippers were the best fit for him, and the notion he was going to take less money to go to Dallas and become the centerpiece of the offense would’ve been a disaster for all parties involved. Though there may have been some hurt feelings, DeAndre landed in the right spot.
Sidebar: When you’re not listening to the HHSR Podcast, do yourself a favor and listen to the JJ Redick/Zach Lowe podcast on the DJ situation from this summer. Redick’s candidness has now made him one of my favorite players.
Doc Rivers also went out of his way to dead all the “GM Doc is killing Coach Doc” jokes by reloading his bench. He traded for Lance Stephenson, signed Josh Smith away from Houston, and reunited with Paul Pierce, who’s L.A. homecoming is likely the last stop in his Hall of Fame career. Pierce was a much needed addition to a team that got its soul snatched Shang Tsung style last May.
If Doc had gotten Paul Pierce like he wanted, I wonder if the #Clippers blow this series. These are real questions I have. — HipHopSportsReport (@HHSReport) May 17, 2015
#Trending: Up. It’s really hard to be a top-four team in the West and still trend up. But the Clippers enhanced their roster, which is always a plus. They still have three very good players in their prime and a team loaded with talented, battle-tested veterans. The problem is the psychological scars from the last two postseason could be enough to derail the key players in crunch time this spring, particularly with Griffin who may be mentally fragile. And the Clippers are an improved team surrounded by other improved teams that were already very good. Oh, and one other thing.
They’re still the Clippers. Witchcraft is about the only thing that kept this team out of the conference finals the last two seasons (they should’ve gone both years). Between the Donald Sterling incident and the mega-collapse from last year; Lord only knows what concoction the basketball gods have in store for the 2016 Clips.
— JH
Oklahoma City Thunder
Last Season: The Cavaliers weren’t the only team that saw their really big ring dreams go up in smoke at the hands of injury. Oklahoma City’s season was sabotaged before it ever got off the ground. Kevin Durant suffered a Jones fracture in his right foot three weeks before the season started (Jones fracture being medical speak for really really bad). The injury plagued KD all season; Durant ultimately had his foot operated on three times in all, and he only appeared in 27 games.
That left much of the burden to fall on the always oddly dressed shoulders of Russell Westbrook, who missed significant time due to injury at the start of the seaosn as well. It seems like eons ago when HHSR defended Russ way before it became cool; last year the league marveled at what he was capable of doing when asked. It was reminiscent of our first glimpses of Kobe without Shaq. And like Kobe, Westbrook’s overzealousness ultimately became his team’s undoing. Westbrook played like a man possessed— here’s a picture of him during pregame warmups before a tilt against the 76ers.
But Westbrook’s inner-Mamba forced his efficiency into the toilet and Russ seemed perfectly amenable to having his team’s season go up in flames as long as he got to go down with both barrels blazing.
In an attempt to save the season, OKC rolled the dice by trading for Dion Waiters and Enes Kanter. While their presence helped, it wasn’t enough to lift Oklahoma City into the playoffs as they narrowly missed the postseason for the first time in six years.
Offseason: Sam Presti did the majority of his roster tinkering during the year, but that wasn’t going to stop him from making a significant move to capitalize on this closing-quicker-than-you-probably-think championship window. The Thunder fired head coach and longtime media punching bag Scott Brooks. They replaced him with University of Florida head man Billy Donovan, who didn’t come down with a sudden case of NBA stage-fright and actually kept the job after accepting it (Magic fans haven’t forgotten).
#Trending: Up, of course. Westbrook, Durant and Serge Ibaka are all back from injury. Oklahoma City will have a full year of Kanter and Waiters in their system. Mitch McGary is improving and Donovan should be an upgrade over Brooks. If able to stay out of the trainers room, there’s no reason to believe OKC won’t find themself back in the conference championship hunt. Of course, they had better— this is the final year of Kevin Durant’s contract.
— JH
Houston Rockets
Last Season: Expectations were on 10 last season in H-Town. While the letter H in the moniker stands for Houston, it very well could have stood for “Harden and Howard”. After years of patience and preparation, the Rockets had landed the impact players needed to build a championship contender surrounded by strong enough role players to fill any particular voids. The Rockets faltered out the gate when Howard missed 11 games early in the season with a right knee sprain. In fact, for most of last year, “Superman” looked a whole lot more like Clark Kent patrolling the Houston sidelines.
Howard was not the only Rocket to be grounded for significant time this past season. Terrence Jones, Patrick Beverly and Donatas Motiejūnas were all hampered by injured for extensive periods of time during the season. While many teams would be crippled by playing undermanned on a nightly basis, the Rockets seemingly rallied behind it. None more so than James Harden, who had a career best season in points, rebounds, assists and steals per game (27.4, 5.7, 7.0 and 1.9 respectively) among other statistics. He was even named MVP of the league by the players. This was not a one man show however. The Rockets had eight players average in double-digits in points on the season.
In spite of health concerns, late in the year the Rockets caught their tempo (“like they’re DJ Mustard, WOO!”) and hit their stride heading into the playoffs as the #2 seed in the Western Conference. After handily putting away the in-state rival Dallas Mavericks 4-1, “Clutch City” fought back from 1-3 deficit to shock not just the population of “Lob City”, but the who NBA nation as well. Sadly for Houston, after an emotionally draining seven game fiasco with the Los Angeles Clippers, there was little they could do to stay out of the way of the Golden State Warriors buzz saw. The Warriors made quick work of the Rockets on their way to the NBA Finals (4-1), though Houston learned they could hang with the NBA elite, especially when healthy.
Ty Lawson could be the missing piece between Houston winning a championship.
Offseason: Adding Ty Lawson may not scream “BLOCKBUSTER ACQUISITION”, but it was one of the smartest moves Rockets GM Daryl Morey could have made. In Lawson, Houston adds another player who can create his own shot to compliment James Harden when the Rockets need instant offense. Averaging 15.2 points and 9.6 assists per game, Lawson can effectively distribute the ball making sure that Howard and Harden get the ball where they need it to be most effective. Despite his recent legal issues, he remains a top 10 point guard in this league.
The Rockets did lose Josh Smith but hope to compensate with a combination of free agent veterans and hungry rookies.
#Trending: Down. Much like last year, this season for the Rockets will primarily come down to a matter of health. It is one thing to have an attractive looking roster on paper, but much like Cleveland learned in last year’s Finals, it is really all about who you can suit up to play as needed on a nightly basis. Coach Kevin McHale will have to be very mindful of player’s minutes and doing his best to keep his team as fresh as possible for a playoff run. On top of having so many injury prone players to be concerned about, The Beard played more minutes than anybody in the NBA in 2014-15. It would behoove the Rockets to not run their star into the ground like last season if they want him to be at his best on the stage where it matters most.
Another potential storyline to watch this season, is the relationship between Dwight Howard and the Rockets organization. Things have been great for D12 in H-Town so far. But the honeymoon could be over if the team goes on a severe losing streak or if injuries nag him and restrict his game like they have in the past. As great of a player as Howard can be when all is right, he can become a real irritant in a locker room when he finds himself frustrated or disengaged. He wore out his welcome in Orlando, and he wore out his welcome in L.A. before he could even get his cable turned on. One has to wonder how long things can remain peaceful especially coming off one of the least production seasons statistically of his career.
The Rockets were more than a “Ty Lawson” away from the NBA Finals last season. The road to the rings goes right over the Golden Gate bridge to Dub Nation. Between the San Antonio Spurs and the Los Angeles Clippers, the Rockets will need to prove they can sustain that Western Conference grind and keep enough able bodies on the floor to win the big games.
— KH
Golden State Warriors
Last Season: Yeah…about that…What is there left to be said about the Golden State Warriors last season? It was a season of dreams for Dub Nation. They won the NBA title and looked damn good doing it. Before ultimately winning it all, the Warriors finished the regular season as the #1 team in the league in defensive efficiency and the #2 team in offensive efficiency. League MVP Stephen Curry nailed more three’s than anybody, ever! Klay Thompson showed his potential when he dropped 37 points in a single quarter! Golden State avoided injury and the Spurs on a fast track to the NBA Finals. The Cavs gave their best effort they, but being down 3/5 of your starters (4/5 if you include Anderson Varejao), proved to be too great for a disadvantage.
No team took the Warriors to seven games; everything lined up beautifully for Golden State. That is not to say Steve Kerr and his team had anything handed to them. They led the league in field goal percentage (.478), three-point percentage (.398), and assists per game (27.4). Few people understand the value of a three-pointer like Steve Kerr. He empowered the Harrison Barnes early in the season and Andre Iguodala late, while consistently allowing the “Splash Brothers” to do their thing (e.g. shoot the freakin’ lights out).
Offseason: When a team wins a championship, their focus normally shifts from acquiring players to get better to keeping their championship roster intact. David Lee’s expiring contract was collateral damage. The big man was traded to the New York Knicks in a deal that provided cap relief for Golden State. Getting Lee’s $15.5M expiring contract off the books also made it easier for the Warriors to re-sign Draymond Green to a 5-year, $82 million deal. Aside from that, expect for things to remain the same for Golden State. Ironically the biggest setback that the offseason provided was the health issues of coach Kerr who had two back surgeries over the summer (“Back 2 Back”). Kerr was aiming to be ready for the start of the 2015-16 season, however with a recent spinal fluid leak, he is on an indefinite leave of absence as he works to heal up for the rigors of an NBA travel schedule. Assistant coach Luke Walton, all of 35 years old, will be at the helm in the interim.
#Trending: Down. “How you gon’ up upgrade me? / What’s higher than number one?” – Jay Z
Using the term “trending down” as gingerly as possible, the champs cannot technically be trending up, they are already on the top of the mountain (even trending “neutral” would have them hoisting a banner at the end of it all). They have brought back all of the players central to their historic 2014-15 season. However, with Coach Kerr’s ability to lead this season in limbo, Golden State will have a much more daunting task than they had last year. With LaMarcus Aldridge “taking his talents” to the San Antonio River Walk (doesn’t sound nearly as cool), the Spurs are reinvigorated and it is quite likely that these two teams may converge at some point in the playoffs this season.
One also has to wonder how long the “Splash Brothers” can keep on splashing? Teams who live by the three almost always die by the three. Three-pointers are tallied as such because they are generally a lower percentage shot. Can Steph Curry and Klay Thompson remain healthy and knock down triples for another 100 games in pursuit of a repeat in the Bay? Some may consider it a long shot, but if the Golden State Warriors have shown us anything, they can do more with a long shot that just about anybody.
— KH
So where does this leave us? Who actually makes the playoffs out West?
Anthony’s West Playoff Teams: Thunders, Warriors, Rockets, Spurs, Clippers, Grizzlies, Pelicans and Suns.
Kenneth’s West Playoff Teams: Thunders, Warriors, Rockets, Spurs, Clippers, Grizzlies, Pelicans and Timberwolves.
Justin’s West Playoff Teams: Thunders, Warriors, Rockets, Spurs, Clippers, Grizzlies, Pelicans and Kings.
Anthony has the Cavs knocking off the Thunder in a seven-game NBA Finals. Kenneth has the Cavs toppling the Spurs in six games to send Timmy Duncan off into retirement, finally passing the torch he’s been so reluctant to relinquish to LeBron James.
As for me, I spent ample amounts of time racking my brain over which team would square off against the Cavaliers in the Finals. Yes, it is a bit scary how everybody and their mama has the Cavs returning to the championship round as a mere formality. This is a team whose key cogs (sans LeBron) are injury-prone players no matter how much they’d want to reject that moniker. It’s like building a house on quicksand; are you ever going to be able to live comfortably on that type of foundation? Nonetheless, the Cavs’ home was sinking last year, but never enough to prevent them form coming out of the East— 2016 should be no different.
Dissecting their opponent is a far more daunting task.
The Warriors are the logical pick. Curry was a giant among giants at the impossibly deep point guard position. If his team (still young) can further perfect their style, a repeat is certaintly within reason. But so many things went the Warriors way in 2015, it’s hard to see them replicating that type of good fortune, particularly with injuries (both to their team and their opponents). An untimely injury mixed with a bad matchup and suddenly this near-70 win team could find themselves home after the second round.
The Spurs are the classic pick. They’ve done it so many times before, and based on the last several postseason runs, it’s evident Tim Duncan is remarkably sill one of the 20 best players in the league. And while Parker is noticeably slowing down and Ginobili may be the first NBA player to hoop with a cane, the growth of Leonard and addition of LaMarcus Aldridge could be enough to get San Antonio back to the promised land. But it’ll take time for this group to figure out how to incorporate Aldridge. There should be growing pains between LA and Duncan that could ultimately submarine their entire season. And what if Kawhi doesn’t develop enough offensively?
The Thunder are the sexy pick. When thinking this through during the summer, OKC was the team on which I had initially landed. But this team is under so much pressure to succeed— this entire franchise as we know it could be up in smoke in less than 24 months if things don’t all go well. And Durant’s mended foot remains a huge question mark. This, plus the fact that so many people are expecting the Thunder to reach the Finals again actually scared me off.
The Clippers are the emotional pick. They’re the Clippers. They’ve sucked since The Stone Age. They’ve dumped the bigot owner. And they’ve suffered enough the last two years. They’ve won a ton of games the last three seasons— there’s no way they can continue to play this well and not have their breakthrough. But DeAndre still shoots free throws like a toddler and is a never-ending crunch time liability. And…they’re the Clippers. In the game of “basketball life”, somehow they always find a way to land on “Go Back To Start”.
Can LeBron finally lift the city of Cleveland on his back and carry them to a championship?
The Rockets are the outside-the-box pick. Everybody thinks they’re good but nobody is picking them to come out the West. Howard’s back is troublesome, but even more troublesome is trusting a team led by Harden, Howard and now Ty Lawson. This trio could easily be (2 parts oil) and water, or worse yet, dynamite and a book of matches. But it’s possible they finally put it altogether, Dwight’s back holds up, and Harden baits the officials into just enough bogus free throw attempts to see them through.
Given all the options out West, I’m taking the Spurs, the ’64 Impala of the NBA. However when picking the Cavs to win the title last year, the reasoning was they only had to face one Western Conference team, while every other West team had to face three other West teams, plus the Cavs. That hasn’t changed. No one team has a better shot at the Larry O’Brien trophy than the Cavaliers; they can do it in six games.
As a native of The Land, here’s hoping that for once, (just once!), Cleveland is the city.