Despite all the pomp and circumstance surrounding the wild changes in the Eastern Conference, the wild wild West comes into this season remaining as competitive as ever. Last season, nine teams in the West won at least 48 games. The Phoenix Suns, who missed the playoffs, would’ve been a #3 seed in the East. Through it all though, the San Antonio Spurs (as predicted by HHSR) managed to navigate their way a fifth NBA championship in the Duncan/Popovich era.
No reason to think they won’t do it again, right? Well, let’s breakdown the West, beginning in the Spurs own Southwest Division, easily the best top-to-bottom division in the league last year.
New Orleans Pelicans
It seems unlikely that all five teams from the same division could make the playoffs. Has that ever happened? It doesn’t even seem like the math would work, as each team would theoretically cannibalize one another making this virtually impossible. But a quick Google search for last year’s standings will show you that only the Pelicans missed the playoffs from the Southwest last year.
NOLA is a sleeper to make the playoffs for many, but in order for this to happen, three things need to take place:
1) Eric Gordon needs to play 75+ games (Ya know, if for no other reason than to justify that $58M deal he received two years ago. EG has played in only 115 of a possible 230 games since he relocated to the bottom of the map three years ago).
2) Jrue Holiday must stay healthy and return to All-Star form. He played only 34 games last season and was brought to New Orleans to compete with the Chris Pauls and Russell Westbrooks of the world. And…
3) Anthony Davis must be great.
Davis has already been anointed by every analyst & their mama as the next great player in this league, almost to the point that you might already find yourself worrying about him if and when he falls short of these incredible expectations, for whatever reason. If all these things happen, it’s hard to imagine the Pelicans not making the playoffs. If they do all happen and the Pelicans don’t make it, you can probably say bye-bye to coach Monty Williams.
Trading for Omer Asik will help anchor the back line and should save Davis from some unnecessary wear and tear. But this squad isn’t particularly deep, Tyreke Evans still doesn’t fit (not sure Tyreke Evans “fits” on any team) and they’re still in the West— still in the Southwest.
Best case scenario the Pelicans are this year’s Phoenix Suns. But as we’ve seen, even that won’t get you in the playoffs.
Memphis Grizzlies
If you follow HHSR, you’ll find a fairly healthy archive of articles not speaking all that favorably of the Grizzlies, however it’s extremely hard not to respect this bunch. In fact, they probably have about as much respect from this observer as any team in the league. But there’s always been something missing— that one final piece to the puzzle that would get the Grit & Grind Grizz over the hump. Unfortunately, they still haven’t found that piece.
The core of Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph, Mike Conley Jr. and Tony Allen is rock solid, but it just hasn’t proven to be championship material. The only noteworthy acquisition Memphis made this summer was swiping Vince Carter (who went from superstar, to long-time punching bag, now to underrated sixth man) away from the Mavs. And while Memphis’ defense and rebounding should once again make them a difficult opponent every night, this group still lacks the offensive punch necessary to make a significant impact in May. And here’s another thing: quiet as kept, this group isn’t all that young. Conley is 27. Gasol is 29. Allen is 32. Randolph is 33. And VC is 37!
The Grizzlies are who they are. We know exactly what to expect from this team, and as a group, they ain’t getting any better. Memphis is absolutely in win-now mode, and if they can’t finally breakthrough and reach the Finals, this team — with Gasol and Randolph facing free agency next summer, and Conely the year after — could easily be broken up.
Sadly, if it hasn’t happened by now, it’s hard to see it ever happening.
Houston Rockets
General Manager Daryl Morey has done pretty much everything he set out to do with this roster. Aided by his undying love for advanced metrics, he’s crafted a team centered around two superstars — James Harden and Dwight Howard — that only believes in shots in the paint, or three-pointers.
And the Rockets didn’t make it out of the first round last year.
Dwight is entering his second season in H-Town, The Beard his third. Morey fancies the Rockets as a major free agent destination, but their third-best player, Chandler Parsons, signed an offer sheet to play in Dallas, one that Morey chose not to match. Losing assets like Parsons for nothing doesn’t really jive with what we know about the Rockets, but it definitely happened.
In actuality, the Rockets let go of Parsons, Asik and Jeremy Lin (dealt to the Lakers for nothing) in an effort to clear cap space to sign Carmelo Anthony. Anthony declined the offer.
Nice try, fellas.
Sidebar: Chris Bosh declined too.
So now where does Houston go? They had a more talented team last year, but topped out at the #4 seed and lost in six games to Portland in round one. Basically, it’s all or nothing on the superstar tip again. Rumors ran wild that the Rockets may try to swing a deal for Rajon Rondo— that may be their only shot of getting out of round one again.
Sidebar: A pass first point guard with playoff experience would do wonders for both Dwight and Harden. Sorry, but Patrick Beverley won’t cut it. And speaking of Harden, remember him “playing defense” last year? HAAAA!!
There’s an old cliché in sports about having the “foxhole guys” on a championship squad. In other words, does a team have anybody you’d want to go to war with? Other than Beverley, there isn’t another foxhole guy on this team. That includes Harden, Dwight’s goofy ass and the newly acquired Trevor Ariza (Jason Terry gets a maybe). Rondo would give Houston some much needed guts come playoff time, and the talent to back it up.
Short of swinging a deal for Rondo or another All-Star player, the Rockets could easily wind up with the third-best record in the state of Texas.
Dallas Mavericks
The Spurs pretty much ran through the NBA playoffs last year, including their (for all intents and purposes) five-game sweep in the Finals. They only received an actual challenge from one team…
The Mavs took the Spurs to seven games in the first round last April. Future HOFer Dirk Nowitzki and coach Rick Carlisle are so consistent, they refuse to let this team be down or stay down for long. If you were paying attention above, you know that Dallas lost Vince Carter, but gained Chandler Parsons, which is a major upgrade. They also lost a defensive presence from their 2011 championship team in Shawn Marion, but they brought back Tyson Chandler, who was the defensive linchpin on that same title-winning team.
Dallas has the foxhole guys the Rockets are lacking — and Monta Ellis — who may not be of this mentality, but can sure fill it up. He was the big reason why we pegged Dallas for a bounce back last October. Speaking of the backcourt, the Mavs added Jameer Nelson to Devin Harris (both have Finals experience) and Raymond Felton. And if the news that JJ Barea (won a ring with Dallas) is coming back, they won’t even have to play Raymond Felton!
Don’t sleep on Cuban’s club— the Mavericks are a dark horse to come out the West. The caveat though, is the health of Tyson Chandler.
San Antonio Spurs
There really isn’t much left to say at this point.
The Spurs are the best basketball team in the world, and have been for possibly three years. The Spurs are the best basketball organization in the world, and probably have been for around 15 years. And Gregg Popovich might just be the greatest basketball coach of all-time (we really need to start collectively thinking about this).
That probably explains why San Antone resigned Pop, Boris Diaw, Patty Mills and Matt Bonner; why Tony Parker signed a three-year extension; and why Tim Duncan picked up his player option for 2014-15, all with NO fanfare whatsoever. The champs basically brought back the exact same team, except they added rookie Kyle Anderson via the draft, a player who I’d strongly dislike if he were on any team in the league, except the Spurs. San Antonio prefers to sharpen their craft with their players and their system they believe in, rather than trying to patch up holes with splashy offseason moves. It’s as frugal and productive as it is noble.
There’s only one catch: The Spurs have never won back-to-back NBA championships. Five in the last 15 seasons is impressive. But the fact that they’ve never won back-to-back titles is worth noting. Age isn’t necessarily the issue— last year’s Spurs was the first team in NBA history not have at least one player average 30 minutes per game. But something is at the root of this.
Or maybe not. Maybe it’s just an obscure fact that doubters will use to fuel their generally unfounded skepticism about the “old and injured” San Antonio Spurs. In any event, the Spurs have no problem winning consecutive division titles, or back-to-back-to-back-to-back-to back division titles for that matter.
Make room for another banner a the AT&T Center. The Spurs win this division for all the reasons listed above. And we ain’t even get to mention last year’s Finals MVP.