We are T-Minus 48 hours from the start of another NFL season. Another season of amazing plays, horrific coaching decisions, surprises, disappointments, Chris Berman (only now in Monday Night Football form), spreads covered, parlays won and lost, fantasy heartbreak (i.e. Hank-ings), stiff arms, injuries, pick 6’s, scoop & scores and of course…Tim Tebow.
Sidebar: For the record, I’ve got nothing against Tebow. It’s fun to watch him succeed, but I also find it incredibly entertaining when he fails and that video is just plain comedy.
Now is the time where everyone puts on their prognostication snapback and makes a feeble attempt at predicting how the league will shake out this year. It’s tough because the NFL, more than any other major American pro sports league, is difficult to predict since a few random teams make the jump from bad to decent, and decent to playoff caliber every year. Conversely, teams that we all assumed would be playing through January at the outset, end up packing it in prior to week 17.
Here are HHSR’s predictions for the 2012-13 NFL season (Note: HHSR reserves the right to change these picks at any time during the season in the interest of furthering our correctitude.)
AFC East Champion: New England Patriots
It’s boring. It’s derivative. It’s predictable. It’s still the right answer. The Patriots are still by far the most polished team in the AFC East and remain the most polished team in the entire AFC. The competition within their division is simply not on par with Belichick’s boys. The Dolphins are rolling out a first-year head coach and a rookie quarterback. If history has taught us anything, it’s that teams that are wet behind the ears in these two spots tend to struggle.
Sidebar: The Dolphins quarterback is so inexperienced, he doesn’t even know which teams are in which conference!
The Bills, however, have continuity at head coach with Chan Gailey, and quarterback with Ryan Fitzpatrick, each enter their third year in the role. The Jets have been a laughing stock this preseason, and while their defense should remain solid, I have no idea how they will consistently put points on the board.
Coming off a fifth Super Bowl appearance in the Brady/Belichick era, the Patriots should be better this season. Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen will take over the rushing attack, bringing with them some youth and explosiveness. Josh McDaniels has returned to run the offense; the last time McDaniels and Tom Brady had a full season together, the Pats set an NFL record for touchdowns and points scored. The addition of Brandon Lloyd will once again allow Brady to stretch the field (and the jettisoning of Chad Johnson didn’t hurt either). While questions remain on the offensive line, New England made a concerted effort to sure up the defense by selecting defensive players with their first six picks (two in the first round) in April’s draft.
AFC North Champion: Baltimore Ravens
Tough way for the Ravens season to end last year. That poor, poor holder. #LacesOut
The Ravens are pissed off. Plain and simple. After missing out on a trip to Super Bowl XLVI by that much, Baltimore knows their window may be closing. While the offense is still growing, the defense is simply growing old. Ray Lewis is 37, Ed Reed is a banged up 33 and Sizzle is M.I.A. due to a torn Achilles. But the Ravens still have the best combination of youth and experience in the division. Pittsburgh and Cincinnati will be in the discussion, however the Steelers still have major injury question marks all over the field and the Bengals may not be ready to take that next step just yet. The Browns should be improved from last year, but still not enough to get out of the cellar given their difficult schedule.
AFC South Champion: Houston Texans
The Texans have a pretty good team. They proved it last year after battling through a tidal wave of injuries to key players, yet still making it to the second round of the playoffs and giving the Ravens all they could handle with their 3rd string quarterback under center. Houston lost Mario Williams via free agency, but defensive end J.J. Watt is poised to fill in, and is well on his way to becoming an elite pass rusher in the league.
Houston will also emerge from the AFC South due to the division’s lack of depth. Each of the other three teams in the division are starting first or second year quarterbacks. Jacksonville is happy to get Maurice Jones-Drew back, but they are still a long ways away from contention. The Colts have a long road back to respectability, although they have the blue chipper to end all blue chippers in the form of Andrew Luck. Indy will be slightly better than expected but their time is down the road. Tennessee should be the second best team in the the AFC South. While they have a wide receiver who’s rap sheet length could challenge Beanie Sigel’s, the Titans are young team coming off of a surprising 9-7 season. If things break right, the Titans could give Houston a run for their money.
AFC West Champion: Oakland Raiders
With three 8-8 teams and one 7-9 team last season, the AFC West is by far the hardest to predict for this upcoming season.
If you were an ACL and you were feeling suicidal last season, you probably could be found in Kansas City. The Chiefs have three key players (Jamaal Charles, Eric Berry and Tony Moeaki) all coming off of torn ACLs and we don’t know exactly how they’ll respond yet. Kansas City’s treacherous schedule could also potentially derail their season out of the gate. The Chiefs have games against Atlanta, Buffalo, New Orleans, San Diego and Baltimore the first five weeks of the season (Oh, and their head coach is Captain Coin Flip…almost forgot about that). Speaking of teams getting off to a slow start…ladies and gentleman, please puts your hands together for the San Diego Chargers!
The Chargers have turned getting off to slow start into an art form. The Chargers are that kid in high school that was smart and had a lot of potential, but every time the bell rang for school to start, he was never in his seat. Rather, he’d worked up a nice sweat from racing down the hallway, and he snuck in the classroom just before the teacher closes the door. It’s October, yet he never got his book covered and he always asked you to borrow a pencil. But, he had personality and everybody liked him. So other kids didn’t mind helping him out and by the end of the year, he had done alright…but you’ll never make it to the head of the class like that.
Is this the year where the Chargers snap out of this habit? The early part of their schedule isn’t quite as rough as Kansas City’s, but it’s no cakewalk either. The “Super” Chargers lost talented receiver Vincent Jackson in free agency and replaced him with New Orleans’ Robert Meachem— that’s a net loss. And we still don’t know if Antonio Gates and Ryan Matthews can even give the Charges a solid 13 games. Throw in Philip Rivers coming off the highest INT total of his career and an average defense relying heavily on two rookie D lineman and San Diego has an uphill climb to the division title.
The man hasn’t played in a game since January 8, 2011. Would you really trust this face and neck with your franchise?
The Denver Fighting Neck Surgeries will certainly be one of the most scrutinized teams in 2012. There’s just too many questions about Peyton Manning (both his health and ability at age 36) for me to feel comfortable picking them. Defensively, you gotta love Von Miller coming off the edge and I expect a big bounce back year from Elvis Dumervil. But, since we’ve talked so much about schedules, we can’t ignore the fact that the Broncos have the most difficult one in the division. By Tebowing their way to a division title last year at 8-8, Denver now has games at New England and at Baltimore, to go along with games against Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and the NFC South. Not a recipe for success.
Let’s see, so that leaves…uh…um…the Raiders?
Yes! The Raiders!
Oakland had some impressive wins last season at Houston, at San Diego, home vs. Chicago and should’ve had another one against Detroit…until Megatron just DECIDED to win that game. And contrary to popular belief, Carson Palmer did NOT suck last year. From his first start on November 6th through the end of the season, Palmer was top-10 in the NFL in passing attempts, completions, completion percentage, yards and yards per attempt, and was 11th in touchdowns. Given that this is his first full offseason and training camp in Oakland, an improvement on that seems very reasonable.
In 2012, Matthew Stafford needed to stay healthy for Detroit to succeed. He did and the Lions went to the playoffs. Run DMC can do the same for the Raiders in 2012.
Furthermore, Darren McFadden is the only game in town now that Michael Bush is in Chicago. This has both positives and negatives. McFadden has always had problems staying healthy, never playing in more than 13 games in his career and suiting up only seven times in 2011. However he is no longer splitting carries with Bush, so IF (I wish there was something bigger than caps lock for that “IF”, like SUPER caps lock) Run DMC can stay out of the trainers room, he could easily wind up leading the NFL in rushing and all of a sudden this Oakland offense becomes pretty tough to stop.
The problem with the Raiders is there are huge questions all over their defense. They completely overhauled their secondary and let pass rusher Kamerion Wimbley walk in free agency. But the Silver & Black finished 29th in total defense last season (so an overhaul of any kind really can’t hurt), yet still managed to end the season with the same record as the division champion Broncos.
AFC Wild Card Teams: Buffalo Bills, Pittsburgh Steelers
Other teams receiving consideration were Denver, Tennessee and Cincinnati. I just don’t see the Bengals leapfrogging the Ravens and Steelers this season. Despite all the injury issues, the Steelers still have pedigree in their corner. They already know how to win. That’s more than can be said for a team like the Bengals or the Titans, who are talented, but are still being led by a 2nd year quarterback with exactly zero starts under his belt. I can see Denver finishing 9-7, but still falling short of the postseason for the aforementioned reason above. As stated earlier, the Bills have continuity, an improving defense and a schedule softer than Yung Berg. They should be one of the final six teams standing in the AFC at season’s end.
AFC Champion: New England Patriots
While I have admittedly been a supporter of Tom Brady for awhile, my most objective mind cannot find a better team in the AFC than the Patriots. The AFC is shallow this season. As of today, the only teams that can conceivably represent the conference in the Super Bowl are the regulars (Pats, Steelers and Ravens) and the Texans. By playing the AFC South and the NFC West, the Pats should be right back in line for another first round bye and home field advantage. The Patriots went 13-3 last season and should have a better team on both sides of the ball this year, in addition to an easier schedule. The only real hurdle they may face is if their lack of a difficult schedule doesn’t properly prepare them for the playoffs. But this group is so battle-tested, it shouldn’t matter.
Barring injury, the Patriots will be attending their sixth Super Bowl in the Brady/Belichick. They better make sure they get it done when they get to New Orleans though, or else it WILL put a dent in their legacy. No doubt.
To read HHSR’s NFC Predictions and Super Bowl pick, click here.